Mineral Water Market Forecast in India
The relevance of research
Initially, the mineral water market in India was dominated by imported brands such as Perier, Evian, etc., which were too expensive for the majority of the population. Quite different positions were occupied by such brands of mineral water as ""Narzan"", ""Essentuki"", ""Borjomi"". Later, the situation changed dramatically. These brands of mineral water have been around for a long time and are well known for their healing properties. They were recommended by doctors and specialists for the prevention and treatment of various diseases of the digestive system.
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the mineral water market, assessment of the market volume, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the sturgeon (black) caviar market.
Content
Chapter 1. Economic characteristics of the mineral water market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Market Growth Rate
1.3. Market trends
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
1.9. Sales channels
1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine in connection with covid-2019
4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines
4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Economic characteristics of the mineral water market
1.1. Market size
Initially, the mineral water market in India was dominated by imported brands such as Perier, Evian, etc., which were too expensive for the majority of the population. Quite different positions were occupied by such brands of mineral water as ""Narzan"", ""Essentuki"", ""Borjomi"". Later, the situation changed dramatically. These brands of mineral water have been around for a long time and are well known for their healing properties. They were recommended by doctors and specialists for the prevention and treatment of various diseases of the digestive system.
...
1.2. Market Growth Rate
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the volume of the mineral water market, 2013 - 2019, million liters
1.3. Market trends
Let's highlight the main trends that affect the mineral water market:
- Increase in the number of supporters of a healthy lifestyle (active recreation, fitness, cycling, etc.). After physical exertion, the body usually recovers with water;
- Increasing demand for mineral water is driving the market to promote alternative formats, such as drinking water with juice content;
- ...
1.4. The main problems of the industry
- Still high confidence of Indians in tap water. Some use it after boiling it, while others clean it with replaceable filters;
- The presence of fakes and falsifications;
- ...
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
The mineral water market is at the stage of life cycle maturity. The maturity stage is the longest of all life cycle stages. It is built on the purchases of conservative consumers, on the popularity and wide representation of the product, which ensures a stable level of sales over a long period.
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1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
The range is designed for consumers of all ages. The bulk of buyers are urban residents from 25 to 35 years old. Despite the growth of the urban population as a whole, the size of the working-age population in cities is declining. In 2019, the able-bodied population in cities amounted to … million people, which is …% lower than in 2013.
...
The pandemic crisis has led to the fact that ...% of the working representatives of the Indian middle class have moved into the category of the poor. At the end of 2019, …% of the population had incomes below the subsistence level (i.e., they belonged to the poor). In the first half of 2020, the poverty rate amounted to …% of the population.
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
The success of the mineral and drinking water category is due to the recent trend in consumer preferences towards drinks that are healthier than the usual “soda”. Mineral water is consumed at home, at work, on vacation, used for domestic needs, for example, for cooking culinary dishes.
Among the main features of the market for these products, it should be noted its pronounced seasonality. During the warm season, interest in mineral water increases not only from regular customers, but also from consumers who prefer other non-alcoholic drinks throughout the year.
The level of mineral water consumption per capita in the period under review shows an annual growth. For 2015-2019 consumption of mineral water increased by …% and at the end of 2019 amounted to … l/person.
Diagram 4. Volume of consumption in the mineral water market per capita, 2015-2019, l/person
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
According to American Demographics, the main consumers of bottled water are women, and they are the most concerned about environmental issues. In the production of polyethylene terephthalate, non-renewable resources are used, and the PET packaging itself does not decompose after use in nature. To reduce the harm of non-degradable components, they began to experiment with bottles.
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1.9. Sales channels
Most of the major producers, according to Aqua Holding, first of all, use large retail chains for sale - about ...% of all water is sent there. The share of small wholesalers is …%. Another …% is sold through pharmacies. It takes only …% to sell mineral water via the Internet.
...
1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Compact location of companies in the mineral water industry in the regions corresponds to the regional distribution of production.
Diagram 5. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions, 2019, %
Note that in each region there are local leaders known only in their own territory. Companies that occupy almost a monopoly position in the local market exist in Kaliningrad, Kazan and other cities.
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
GDP dynamics
GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services produced in a year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation.
The dynamics of India's GDP is decisive in the vector of development of the entire economy of the country and determines the key trends in consumer effective demand and economic activity.
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Diagram 6. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-Q2 2020, % to the previous year
Thus, experts disagree significantly about the real dynamics of India's GDP in 2020: a decrease by …% is predicted
2.2. Social Components
Real disposable money income
Real disposable money income per capita is income minus mandatory payments, adjusted for inflation. This factor determines the level of effective demand of buyers, is one of the key reasons for the formation of the dynamics of both retail turnover and demand for services.
During 2014-2017 the dynamics of real incomes of the population is negative, so in 2014 real incomes decreased by …% compared to 2013, in 2015 – by …% compared to 2014, in 2016 – the situation worsened even more – the decrease amounted to …% compared to 2015, in 2017, they decreased by …% more compared to 2016. In 2018, the real incomes of the population showed near-zero growth – …%, instead of the predicted …%, which indicates the absence of growth in the purchasing power of the population.
Diagram 10. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, % to the previous year, 2012-Sep. 2020
2.3. Technological components
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It is profitable to fake mineral water: the cost of a fake is low, and the price on the store shelf is comparable to the original one. Aqua Holding, the manufacturer of Essentuki mineral water, is constantly fighting counterfeit products. According to the Aqua Holding company, quite recently the number of counterfeit products under the Essentuki brand reached …%. The company has repeatedly sued manufacturers who pass off their product as real Essentuki, and won the courts. There is less counterfeiting of mineral water, but the situation has not yet been completely resolved.
2.4. Political Components
Licensing of activities for the extraction of mineral water
Since subsoil resources are the property of the state, including underground sources of fresh water, it is required to obtain an appropriate permit for their extraction. According to the current legislation, water is a mineral. You must first obtain a license for the extraction of water from the bowels of the earth.
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
Regional, national and global types of competition are developed in the mineral water market.
In the retail outlets of the regions there is a rich selection of mineral waters from various manufacturers. This suggests that the market in this segment is well developed, there is serious competition. On the shelves there are both local manufacturers and federal ones. The presence of foreign brands is also noticeable. The leading foreign suppliers to India are Georgia (95,0 Ml in 2019) and France (23,7 Ml).
The world's leading producers of bottled water are: Nestle Waters (brands Perrier, San Pellegrino, Acqua Panna, Vittel) Groupe Danone (Evian, Volvic, Badoit), PepsiCo Inc (Aquafina, SmartWater), The Coca-Cola Company (Bonaqua). In addition, several premium brands created by relatively recently independent companies play a significant role in the market: Fiji Water (The Wonderful Company), Voss (Voss of Norway ASA) and a number of others.
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
IDS Borjomi LLC is the leader in the mineral water market. The company combines the brands ""Borjomi"", ""Holy Spring"" and ""Edelweiss"". The Holy Spring and Borjomi brands are among the most popular among Indian consumers. According to Ipsos Comcon, which conducts research in cities with a population of more than 100 thousand people, these brands are among the top ten in terms of recognition.
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Diagram 12. Shares of the largest competitors in the mineral water market in 2019, %
From the point of view of competitive concentration, the market is classified as low-concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI <1000). Mergers and acquisitions are allowed without hindrance.
GidMarket estimates that in 2019 the total revenue of the TOP-5 largest operators of the mineral water market amounted to … billion Rs., having increased by …% compared to 2015.
...
3.3. Competition from substitute products
The mineral water market is affected by substitute products such as juices, soft drinks, tea, coffee and other soft drinks, as well as tap water.
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List of diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the volume of the mineral water market, 2013 - 2019, million liters
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the urban working-age population, 2015-2019, thousand people
Diagram 3. Dynamics of average per capita income of the population, Rs., 2013-2019
Diagram 4. Volume of consumption in the mineral water market per capita, 2015-2019, l/person
Diagram 5. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions, 2019, %
Diagram 6. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-Q2 2020, % to the previous year
Chart 7. Expert forecasts for a decline in real GDP in India in 2020 (baseline/neutral scenario), %
Diagram 8. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, Rs. for 1 US dollar, 2015-Nov. 2020
Diagram 9. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, 2015-Aug. 2020, % to the previous period
Diagram 10. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, % to the previous year, 2012-Sep. 2020
Diagram 11. Dynamics of the population of India, million people, as of 01 Jan. 2012-2020
Diagram 12. Shares of the largest competitors in the mineral water market in 2019, %
Diagram 13. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest mineral water market operators (TOP-5) in India, 2015-2019, million Rs.
Diagram 14. Forecast of the mineral water market volume in 2020 - 2024 – under the scenario of one quarantine, million liters
Diagram 15. Forecast of the mineral water market volume in 2020 - 2024 – under the scenario of two quarantines, mln l
List of tables
Table 1. Sales channels for products, 2019
Table 2. Contracts for tenders for mineral water concluded in the period from 15.07.2020/01.11.2020/1 to / / in the amount of more than million Rs.
Table 3. STEP analysis of factors affecting the mineral water market
Table 4. Main companies participating in the mineral water market in 2019
Table 5. Advantages and disadvantages of mineral water substitute products
Table 6. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 7. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed as of April 11.11.20,
Table 8. Forecast indicators for the basic and pessimistic scenarios for the development of the crisis,%
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