Market forecast for online ticketing (train tickets, air, bus) and tour packages in India
The relevance of research
The development of online channels remains the main trend in distribution in the transportation and travel market. The pandemic has only increased the importance and relevance of this channel
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the market for online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages in India, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the market for online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers
Content
Chapter 1. Key components of the online ticketing market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
1.1. Market size
1.2. Growth rates of the market of online sale of tickets (train tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers
1.3. Market trends for online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. The stage of the life cycle of the online ticket sales market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
1.9. Price analysis
Chapter 2
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the online ticketing market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the market of online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
4.4. Prospects and drivers for the growth of the online ticket sales market (train tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers
4.5. Forecast of the development of the market for online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Key components of the online ticketing market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
1.1. Market size
At the end of 2020, the market volume amounted to … billion Rs. Coronavirus and the associated lockdown have caused...
According to … 2018, about half of the e-travel market (…%) was …, …% — …, …% — railway tickets and …% — tours. All other segments accounted for only …%. According to 2019 data, the distribution is already slightly different: … — …% (“minus” … p.p.), … — …% (“plus” … p.p.), …
The development of online channels remains the main trend in distribution in the transportation and travel market. The pandemic has only increased the importance and relevance of this channel: for example, …
At the same time, the mobile application market is developing at a rapid pace and according to forecasts …
Among the main factors in the growth of the popularity of the online model, the following advantages can be distinguished:
–– …;
–– …;
...
The special sensitivity of Indians to ... makes relevant services that enable ...
1.2. Growth rates of the market of online sale of tickets (train tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers
Growth rate of the online ticket and travel package market in 2016-2019 demonstrated …%, industries predicted …, however, the coronavirus pandemic …, having brought down online sales of tickets and travel packages, by …%.
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the volume of the online ticket sales market (railway tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers, 2016–2020, billion Rs.
1.3. Market trends for online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
Among the trends in the market of online sales of tickets and travel packages, it should be noted:
Growth …;
Growth of the share of …;
Clients become...;
Ticket search process…;
...
1.4. The main problems of the industry
The main issues in the industry include:
...
1.5. The stage of the life cycle of the online ticket sales market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
The online ticketing and tour package market is underway...
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
During 2012–2017 India's population showed … dynamics. However, for 2018 the vector … The current demographic situation in India is characterized by … (since 2017), which is accelerating, and migration …
The resident population of India as of January 1, 2021, according to preliminary …, amounted to … million people, which is … thousand people less than on January 1, 2020. countries... So...
In general, according to the estimate of …, the population of India will be …, and reaching positive growth rates is expected to be …
Rosstat predicts that the birth rate (number of children per woman) … from current … to … by 2025
Earlier, Rosstat published a demographic forecast until 2036. The most optimistic scenario assumes …
...
At the same time, the dynamics of real incomes of the population during 2014-2017. of the population …, so in 2014 real incomes decreased by …% compared to 2013, in 2015 – by …% compared to 2014, in 2016 – … At the end of 2019, real money incomes of Indians …%. The peak value was reached in 3 sq. – …%, in the 4th quarter. the growth rate of the indicator slowed down …%.
Diagram 4. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, % to the previous year, 2012–Jun. 2021
According to Rosstat, the real disposable money income of Indians in 2020 decreased by …% compared to 2019. The consequences of the covid-19 pandemic and quarantine restrictions were a reduction in earnings …
...
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
Estimation of the volume of consumption of online sales of tickets and tour packages was made by GidMarket analysts based on the ratio of …
The highest consumption per capita in the study period was noted in 2019 with an indicator of … thousand Rs./person. At the end of 2020, the indicator amounted to … thousand Rs./person, which is lower than consumption in 2019 ...
1.8. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
According to GidMarket's calculation, based on data on the financial performance of key market companies, the gross margin of the online ticketing and travel package industry in 2016–2019 was significantly ... the level of values for all industries in general.
In 2020, the indicator amounted to …%, which is only by … p.p. … the level of gross margin in all industries.
Diagram 6. Profitability of profit before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the industry of online ticketing (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2016–2020, %
Profit before tax reflects the share of revenue that remained in the enterprise as profit before tax. According to the results of 2020, the value of the indicator in the industry of online sale of tickets and tour packages is … in line with the average all-Indian values – …%.
Current liquidity characterizes the extent to which all short-term liabilities of an enterprise ... In 2019–2020. the indicator was within ... times, which is ...
Absolute liquidity shows what part of short-term liabilities can be repaid in the shortest possible time. For Indian companies, the normative value of the absolute liquidity ratio is within …
In general, the analysis of sectoral financial ratios of the industry shows …
1.9. Price analysis
There are many factors that affect the price of tickets and travel packages: …
For Jan.-Aug. In 2021, the largest increase in the price index was shown by … (“plus” …% by 2020), while in 2020 the index in this area was …%, which became the minimum value among the presented indicators. At the same time, the consumer price index for travel … in Jan.-Aug. 2021 remained at the level of 2020
Average prices are for Jan-Aug. 2020 and Jan.-Aug. 2021
Among the federal districts, the highest prices for a trip to a holiday in Thailand were noted in the … Union Territories – by …% higher than the average Indian values. The highest cost for a flight in the cabin of an economy class aircraft is also observed in the … Union Territories – by …% higher than the average Indian values. Intercity bus fares are the most expensive for residents of … Union Territories – by …% higher than the average Indian values. Traveling in a reserved seat carriage of an express branded long-distance train is the most expensive for residents of … Union Territories – higher by …% than the average for India.
Table 4. Average prices in the online ticket sales market (railway tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers in the Union Territories, Aug. Aug 2020 2021 Rs.
Chapter 2
2.1. Economic components
India GDP
GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services produced in a year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation.
The dynamics of India's GDP is decisive in the vector of development of the entire economy of the country and determines …
In 2012–2014 the GDP growth rate was positive, but was constantly declining, and in 2015 it was ... In 2015, which was the peak of the crisis in the state, the decline in GDP was ... is directly proportional to the well-being of citizens, then this indicates ...
In 2016, GDP stagnated, at the end of 2017, this indicator demonstrates …
According to the results of 2017–2019, the dynamics of …
In 2020, the decline in India's GDP, according to the second estimate of Rosstat, amounted to …%. This is the biggest drop in GDP since 2009, when the country's economy shrank by …%. According to Rosstat, the decline in GDP is mainly due to …
2.2. Social Components
...
2.3. Technological components
...
2.4. Political Components
...
2.5. STEP-analysis of the online ticketing market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
According to the results of the performed STEP-analysis, macro-environment factors have a greater influence on the development of the online ticket sales and travel package market.
Significant negative factors include...
Table 5. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the online ticketing market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
...
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
Online ticketing services are in competition with … and companies in other fields (…) that open their own …
It should be noted that only companies that provide an opportunity to purchase both transport tickets and tourist vouchers in aggregate on their websites are taken into account in the rating.
The largest competitors in the market of online sales of tickets and travel packages are … – …%, … – …%, ... Note that the share of online sales in companies … is about …% of revenue.
Other operators occupy ...
In terms of competitive concentration, the market belongs to … (Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI <…). Mergers and acquisitions ...
Legal revenue until 2019, the total revenue of the TOP-2020 largest market operators amounted to … billion Rs., which is lower than in 5 by …%.
Note that significant growth in 2019 is due to …
3.3. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Since the largest share in the market volume is occupied by sales of ..., then the companies offering to issue ...
Diagram 14. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions, Oct. 2021, %
The largest number of companies in the industry are located in … (…%) and … (…%). At the same time, the tourist mobility of the population of remote and hard-to-reach regions is …% lower than the average Indian values — …
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
...
In the first half of 2020, many markets felt the impact of the pandemic and the onset of the economic crisis. Let us analyze data on the impact of recent crises on the online ticketing and travel package market (the 2008 global crisis and the 2014 Indian currency crisis).
Table 7. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
...
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
...
4.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the market of online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
...
4.4. Prospects and drivers for the growth of the online ticket sales market (train tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers
...
4.5. Forecast of the development of the market for online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
...
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
...
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
...
5.3. Timing of forecasting
The forecast belongs to the medium-term category - 5 years (2021-2025)
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the volume of the online ticket sales market (railway tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers, 2016–2020, billion Rs.
Diagram 2. Stage of the life cycle of the online ticketing and travel package market
Diagram 3. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2012–2021, million people
Diagram 4. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, % to the previous year, 2012–Jun. 2021
Diagram 5. The volume of consumption in the market of online ticket sales (train tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers per capita, 2016–2020, Rs./person.
Diagram 6. Profitability of profit before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the industry of online ticketing (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2016–2020, %
Diagram 7. Current liquidity (total coverage) in the industry of online ticketing (railway tickets, air, bus) and travel packages for 2016–2020, times
Chart 8. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-May 2021, % to the previous year
Diagram 9. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, Rs. for 1 US dollar, 2016-Oct. 2021
Chart 10. Internet penetration in India among the audience of 16 years and older, %, 2016-2020
Diagram 11. The number of international and domestic passenger air transportation in the number of passengers, 2010–2020, billion people
Diagram 12. Shares of the largest competitors in the online ticket sales market (railway tickets, air, bus) and tour packages in 2020, %
Diagram 13. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest operators of the online ticket sales market (railway tickets, air, bus) and tour packages (TOP-5) in India, 2016–2020, million Rs.
Diagram 14. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions, Oct. 2021, %
Diagram 15. Forecast of the online ticket sales market (railway tickets, air, bus) and travel packages in 2021–2025, billion Rs.
Tables
Table 1. Gross margin of the online ticketing (railway, air, bus) and travel industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2016-2020, %
Table 2. Absolute Liquidity of the Online Ticketing (Rail, Air, Bus) and Travel Package Industry Compared to All Sectors of the Indian Economy, 2016–2020, times
Table 3. Consumer price indices in the online ticket sales market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages in India in 2016–Aug. 2021, %
Table 4. Average prices in the online ticket sales market (railway tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers in the Union Territories, Aug. Aug 2020 2021 Rs.
Table 5. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the online ticketing market (train tickets, air, bus) and travel packages
Table 6. The main companies participating in the online ticket sales market (railway tickets, air, bus) and tourist vouchers in 2020
Table 7. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 8. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed as of April 20.10.2021,
Table 9. Forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy
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