Market Forecast for Natural Parks in India
The relevance of research
Natural parks are primarily used as recreational areas, respectively, the size of the natural parks market is part of the Indian tourism market. A significant part of active tours and ecological routes bought by Indians includes visits to natural parks, and their share continues to grow. Natural parks in India have learned to use their tourism potential, previously they were mainly focused on conservation activities.
Purpose of the study
Analyzing the state of the natural parks market in India, assessing the market size, analyzing competitors, as well as determining the factors affecting the natural parks market
Content
Chapter 1. Key Components of the Natural Parks Market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Growth Rates of the Natural Parks Market
1.3. Nature Parks Market Trends
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. Life cycle stage of the natural parks market
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
1.9. Price analysis
Chapter 2
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market of natural parks
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers to the natural park market
4.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the natural parks market
4.5. Forecast for the development of the natural parks market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Key Components of the Natural Parks Market
1.1. Market size
...
Natural parks are primarily used as recreational areas, respectively, the size of the natural parks market is part of the Indian tourism market. A significant part of active tours and ecological routes bought by Indians includes visits to natural parks, and their share continues to grow. Natural parks in India have learned to use their tourism potential, previously they were mainly focused on conservation activities.
Natural parks are a relatively new category of specially protected natural areas in our country. This form, despite its exceptional relevance from both environmental and recreational points of view, really came into practice in the 90s. According to Article 18 of the Law of India ""On Specially Protected Natural Areas"", natural parks are specially protected natural areas of regional significance, within the boundaries of which zones are allocated that have an ecological, cultural or recreational purpose, and, accordingly, prohibitions and restrictions on economic and other activities are established.
From the point of view of the law, the key difference between natural parks and national parks and reserves should be considered their subordination not to a federal structure, but to a regional one. Accordingly, within the framework of this study, the concept of natural parks will include national natural parks, regional natural parks, nature reserves.
1.2. Growth Rates of the Natural Parks Market
Nature Park Market Growth Rate in India 2016-2020 allow us to state that the market is in the growth stage, this is indicated by a clearly positive trend in the development of the market, despite the decline in indicators in some periods, high growth rates with a positive forecast for the development of the tourism industry as a whole.
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the market volume of natural parks, 2016–2020
The natural parks market in India, according to Rosstat and GidMarket analysts, showed
...
GidMarket analysts suggest that in the coming years, the Indian market of natural parks will develop similarly to previous periods - given the unambiguously positive development trend, market volumes will grow annually with a decrease in growth rates.
1.3. Nature Parks Market Trends
Development of domestic tourism. The government has realized how high growth potential the domestic tourism market has and is actively working towards its development - the main point here was the launch in India of cashback from Rostourism to the MIR card: according to the conditions, tourists booked trips around the country and received a cashback of 20% from cost.
The development of online tools is a definite plus, as it reduces the time for choosing places to visit by tourists and residents of regions where natural parks are located, in addition, the use of online information helps to promptly notify the population about upcoming events and new excursion routes;
The high pace of technological change - restrictions imposed in 2020 in connection with the coronavirus pandemic have become an incentive to accelerate technological changes in the tourism and excursion services industry, which has affected the activities of nature parks as well - many organizations have begun to use the online broadcasts during tours, use or are currently implementing virtual / augmented reality technologies, use audio guides or virtual assistants and navigate through museums. Modern organizations in the field of tourism and culture actively interact with the audience remotely - they realize the opportunity to purchase tickets online, use a virtual guide, and support a loyalty program. Digital transformation has affected all sectors of the economy, the restrictions associated with the pandemic have accelerated the pace of transformation - now tools are changing, new communication channels are emerging, respectively, market operators need not only to follow innovations and technologies, but also to be among the first in the implementation of such technologies.
The demand for nature tourism, which enriches the experience of travelers with immersion in the beauty of the wild nature and the original local culture, and gives them the opportunity to take care of the preservation of natural and cultural heritage, is growing in the world and in India.
...
1.4. The main problems of the industry
The main problems of the industry include underdeveloped infrastructure, low quality of tourism services and the low level of transport development in India. Many of the problems of accessibility of natural parks in remote areas are due to the fact that India has a large and extended territory with different climatic zones.
Market experts note that in the absence of normal logistics and infrastructure, there is no possibility of further market growth at the same pace. At the same time, there is also the problem of promoting Indian natural parks and specially protected areas in terms of marketing - often the potential target audience does not have information about the nearest natural parks to make a decision about visiting them. Experts note the need for a number of activities in the direction of the development of the tourism industry as a whole, as well as the development and accessibility of the transport component, so that the beautiful and famous places in India become accessible and attractive both from a financial point of view and from the point of view of the recreation itself.
Market experts also note that natural areas should have serious infrastructural preparation: these are specially equipped hiking trails, trained specialist guides, equipped parking lots for cars and tourist buses, and places to stay. An important point here is also the cost of travel and accommodation services, which is quite high for remote areas - Kamchatka, Khabarovsk Territory, Sakhalin.
...
As noted earlier, in India there is a positive trend in the creation of national natural parks in the country. At the same time, the development of ecological tourism on their territory lags behind, since objective difficulties arise here. The initial task in the development of ecological tourism in the territory of national natural parks is the formation of a ""tourist product"".
...
Therefore, the role of the national parks administration in the field of tourism should be limited to the following areas:
Laying and arrangement of tourist routes.
Determination of possible locations of tourist facilities.
Planning of tourist flows, i.e. determining the optimal number of park visitors and their distribution in time and space (according to tourist destinations).
Ensuring the safety of tourists.
Implementation of information support for park visitors.
Carrying out educational activities among tourists.
Preparation of guides on tourist routes.
Carrying out excursions along the laid routes in the territory (water area) of the national park.
The provision of paid services to park visitors (accommodation, food, entertainment, trade services, etc.) and the production of goods for sale (ecologically clean food, souvenirs, handicrafts, etc.) should be carried out, according to the authors, by commercial organizations. The fulfillment of the functions noted above in the field of ecological tourism, which logically fall on the administration of the national park, objectively requires the addition of staff. The problem here is not so much an increase in staffing as the lack of trained specialists in the field of strategic and operational management in the field of eco-tourism. After all, these specialists must create a brand for the national park, form a “tourist product”, promote it on the market, analyze the market for ecological tourism services and modify (improve) the tourist product, plan tourist flows, etc. And of course, national natural parks cannot train such specialists on their own. This is a task at least at the regional or even federal level.
...
Such sources of additional funding for national parks can be:
Rent paid by commercial organizations for the use of land plots, water resources and other park facilities. National parks, as federal budgetary institutions, enter into lease agreements on their own behalf and, accordingly, as landlords collect rent. At the same time, it is important that the norm of the legislation does not work, according to which the budgetary financing of budgetary institutions is reduced by the amount of rent, i.e. national natural parks by the state.
Entrance fee from visitors to national parks.
Deductions from the income of tourist companies that use the well-established infrastructure of national parks for tourist tours and which, unlike commercial organizations that have any facilities in the park, do not pay rent.
Financing from regional or even local budgets. When national parks are exclusively dedicated to conservation, research, and environmental education, federal states and municipalities have little incentive to fund them. It is a completely different matter when national parks carry out tourism activities that increase employment and contribute to the inflow of additional revenues to the budget.
On the one hand, the directorates of protected areas or museum-reserves, formed on impressive and attractive natural and historical complexes for tourists, have the strength and means to control the relevant territory and, one way or another, provide the support necessary for the success of tourism projects. On the other hand, only a private entrepreneurial initiative, working in partnership with the directorates of protected areas or reserve museums, is able to effectively create a tourism infrastructure, services and products, ensure the attraction of tourists, promote relevant tourism services, create resources to attract talented people to the cause of popularization of natural and cultural heritage and conditions for expanding the number of friends of protected places and beauties.
1.5. Life cycle stage of the natural parks market
The natural parks market in India is in a growth stage, which is characterized by high growth rates of production of goods/services and revenues. Sales growth is due to an increase in purchases by existing consumers who have a positive experience in using the product/service. The main task of a company in the growth stage is to use all points of growth to extend this stage.
There are all prerequisites for tougher competition, the number of players may increase - in this case, there are prerequisites for the creation of new natural parks of various levels, respectively, for these parks their own unique tourist products will be created. At the same time, competitors can enter the market with new technologies or services, improved methods of working with the consumer. In this case, strong major players will be the first to enter the market, able to switch current consumers to themselves and conquer part of the market due to high investment opportunities.
At the growth stage, you need to use the expansion of the product line, new variations of the product / service, improving quality characteristics to maximize the extension of the growth stage. New assortment solutions will help retain existing customers, enter new industry segments and maintain market share.
At the stage of growth, as a rule, a base of regular consumers has already been formed. It is necessary to maintain contact and promptly respond to the requests of each of them, as well as monitor related markets - the entry of new players, changes in the composition, market trends. When working with a potential target audience, the emphasis should be on:
achieving awareness of the company's product/service among the potential target audience;
search for new consumers - use all opportunities to expand the target audience;
increasing the frequency of use of the product by existing consumers;
active formation of loyalty and commitment to the product through attention to the needs of consumers.
...
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
Population. During 2019-2020 India's population shows a slight negative trend. The decrease in the population has an insignificant effect on the decrease in demand for this type of service at the moment, to a greater extent, the demand is affected by a decrease in the income of the population, which entails a decrease in purchasing power - during the crisis, the majority of buyers rarely purchased non-essential goods.
...
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
Chart 5. Consumption in the natural parks market per capita, 2016–2020
...
The volume of consumption per capita in the market of natural parks in India generally correlates with the dynamics of the market volume, since the dynamics of the population over the study period, although it has a negative trend, is declining slightly.
...
1.8. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
Let us consider sectoral indicators of the financial and economic activity of the tourism industry and the natural parks market to determine the sustainability of the industry and the enterprises operating in it.
Table 1. Gross Margin of Nature Parks Industry vs. All Industries in India, 2016-2020, %
Gross margin is an economic indicator that characterizes the ratio of gross profit to revenue and allows you to evaluate the efficiency of an industry or enterprise.
Profitability before tax is an economic indicator that characterizes the ratio of gross profit to revenue, in other words, how much profit is in each ruble from services sold.
...
The current (total) liquidity ratio is a financial ratio equal to the ratio of current (current) assets to short-term liabilities (current liabilities). This is the most common and commonly used measure of liquidity. The ratio reflects the company's ability to repay current (short-term) liabilities at the expense of current assets only. The higher the indicator, the better the solvency of the enterprise.
...
The absolute liquidity ratio is a financial ratio equal to the ratio of cash and short-term financial investments to short-term liabilities (current liabilities). The source of data is the company's balance sheet in the same way as for current liquidity, but only cash and funds close to them in essence are taken into account as assets. It shows what part of the current liabilities of the companies in the industry are able to repay at their own expense and in the shortest possible time and is used to assess the financial position of the industry.
...
1.9. Price analysis
The dynamics of prices in the natural parks market in the period from 2016 to the end of the third quarter of 2021 can be traced by analyzing the dynamics of prices for tickets to the museum, similar to the prices for excursion services in parks: it has a linear character - the indicator has increased annually, as evidenced by consumer price indices for services above 100%, except for the third quarter of 2021
...
A reflection of the average prices in the natural parks market in India as a whole are the average prices for a ticket to a museum, consider the average prices for the union territories provided by Rosstat.
Table 4. Average prices in the market of natural parks in the Union Territories
The maximum average price for a museum ticket was recorded in the Northwestern Federal District, where the city is located, one of the leaders in India in terms of the number of attractions, in second place is the Central Federal District ...
Chapter 2
2.1. Economic components
Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators.
It reflects the market value of all final goods and services intended for direct consumption, which were produced for a certain period (quarter, year) in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation, regardless of the nationality of the factors of production used.
...
2.2. Social Components
India's population is slightly declining in 2019-2020. (diagram 3) - accordingly, the level of consumption of goods and services in the domestic market of India also slightly decreases.
...
In addition, in India and around the world, trends towards environmental friendliness, conscious consumption, a healthy lifestyle are gaining popularity, which also affects the choice of destinations and travel goals - often publish news on social networks about tourist groups that are going on a trip to restore order in the forests or on the coast, are gaining popularity destinations for outdoor activities in order to maintain a healthy lifestyle. This change in the habits and behavior of tourism consumers is changing the industry, creating a need to respond to the needs of the tourism industry's customers, which positively affects the natural parks market in India.
2.3. Technological components
Digitalization. The experience of 2020 has shown that the transition of companies and entire industries to online is a forced new reality: a global process of reorientation of consumer behavior is taking place all over the world. Having appreciated all the convenience of online shopping during quarantine, users do not intend to refuse them. The development of online tools is a definite plus, as it reduces the time for buying tickets, choosing routes and destinations, and completing documents online. In addition, the use of mailing lists helps to promptly inform the population about upcoming events and new tourist routes, discounts and special offers, stimulating visits to natural parks.
The high pace of technological change in the industry as a whole - the restrictions imposed in 2020 in connection with the coronavirus pandemic have become an incentive to accelerate technological changes in the tourism and excursion services industry - many organizations have begun to use the online broadcast format for excursions, use or are currently implementing virtual/augmented reality technologies, using audio guides or virtual assistants and navigating through museums and monuments. Digital transformation has affected all sectors of the economy, the restrictions associated with the pandemic have accelerated the pace of transformation - now tools are changing, new communication channels are emerging, respectively, market operators need not only to follow innovations and technologies, but also to be among the first in the implementation of such technologies.
2.4. Political Components
The industry is looking forward to the reform of the legislation on protected areas, which should create transparent rules for the implementation of investment projects related to the development of tourism in protected areas. The main parameters of the reform are contained in the draft federal law No. 1130300-7, the implementation of which will be ensured by a dozen by-laws. However, the non-transparency of sectoral policy and regulation creates an increased level of financial risk against the background of the low quality of projects and their initiators, leaving the industry of natural tourism and tourism in protected areas in the shadows and excluding the implementation of its positive role.
In December 2020 and July 2021, the President of India signed laws amending the Federal Law on Specially Protected Natural Areas, which establishes the specifics of regulating land and construction relations in settlements within the boundaries of protected areas. The settlements included in the protected areas can use land and carry out capital construction, reconstruction of objects guided by the established rules for land use and development, and projects created in accordance with these rules are subject to approval by the federal executive authority or the executive authority of the state of India, administered by which the protected area is located. The law also establishes that the turnover of land plots in the territory of a settlement included in the SPNA of federal and regional significance is not limited. The main criterion is strict compliance with the regime of special protection of protected areas
...
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market of natural parks
Based on the analysis of the factors affecting the Indian natural parks market, there is a predominantly negative impact of factors on the market, and, accordingly, on demand.
Among the significant constraining factors are the decline in purchasing power and population, the devaluation of the rupee and the decline in GDP, the need to adjust existing legislation.
The following political and technological and one of the social factors have a stimulating effect on the analyzed market: state regulation of the industry, the development of online tools and the high rate of technological changes in the industry, as well as changing consumer habits. Also, the tourist cashback program - the return of part of the amount spent on a trip within the country, proposed by the Government of India, indirectly had a positive impact on the natural parks market, which stimulated domestic tourism in 2020.
A positive influence of moderate strength is exerted by such a political factor as state support for the population in a pandemic (payments to families with children, an increase in unemployment benefits).
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
Visiting natural parks is quite popular in India, the market has good potential for development, as evidenced by the growing popularity of eco-tourism and nature tourism. At the same time, there are issues related to the financial side of the activities of natural parks of various levels, as well as the issue of calculating the load on protected areas with an increase in the number of visitors.
The global competition in the natural parks market is not very pronounced and is driven by the issue of the availability of travel in general to visit certain natural parks in India and abroad. At the same time, Indian travelers often prefer visiting foreign natural parks as part of a tour abroad due to the availability of such services from a financial point of view and the availability of well-established infrastructure and a certain level of service in other countries.
National competition is quite pronounced, but it is worth noting here that visiting natural parks is rarely the only purpose of traveling in India, as people want to get as much experience and visit more interesting places as part of the tour. Accordingly, when planning a vacation on the coast, a potential tourist will be guided by the possibility of choosing a park near the planned vacation spot. At the same time, it is also worth noting that the vast territory of India and the difference in climatic zones contribute to the development of year-round recreation, since natural parks look different in different climatic zones, in other words: for each natural zone there are seasonal advantages both in cold and in warm weather. season. It is this fact that determines national competition within the country.
Regional and local competition is also quite pronounced in the Indian park market. The competition is higher in those regions where there are a large number of attractions: historical sites, recreation sites, recreational routes, places of military glory, shrines and much more, which attracts tourist flows to the region.
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
In total, in India, as of 2020, there are more than 11825 protected areas of federal, regional and local significance, the total area of which is 240,2 million hectares, which is 14,7% of the territory of India. There are 296 PAs of federal importance, including 109 state natural reserves, 64 national parks, as well as natural monuments and other PAs of federal significance.
...
At the same time, it should be noted that the main competitors in the natural parks market, regardless of the presence or absence of revenue, include the natural world heritage sites in India listed in Table 7.
...
The market shares of market operators with revenue in 2020 are calculated based on the revenue of such enterprises in 2020.
The market leader in natural parks is ...
Diagram 11. The dynamics of the total revenue of the largest operators of the market of natural parks (TOP-5) in India, 2016–2020
Net revenue for the TOP-5 companies according to the annual reports of these companies in 2020 totaled ...
3.3. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
To determine the compactness of the location of companies in the industry, let us consider the areas of protected areas of various kinds in the states of India, which will indicate a high concentration of companies in this region.
...
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
In 2020, many markets felt the impact of the pandemic and the onset of the economic crisis, the natural parks market in India was one of the first to be negatively affected by the crisis.
...
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
Forecasting the development of the natural parks market in India is impossible without understanding the economic situation in the country as a whole, as well as assessing the impact of the spread of a new coronavirus infection and the measures taken to support the population, as well as businesses and industries that have been particularly affected by the pandemic. The list of sectors of the Indian economy most affected by the deteriorating situation as a result of the spread of a new coronavirus infection, approved by the Government of India on April 03.04.2020, 434 No. , includes, among other things, transport activities, activities in the field of culture, leisure and entertainment , activities of sanatorium organizations, activities of travel agencies and other organizations providing services in the field of tourism, hotel business, catering.
...
4.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers to the natural park market
“In the context of a pandemic, the population of many countries has no choice but to pay attention to domestic destinations. Many states have taken increased security measures in the context of the development of domestic tourism.
...
The main barriers in the tourism industry as a whole, of which the segment of ecological and nature tourism is a part, include the high cost of travel or flight to a place of rest, undeveloped transport and other infrastructure. According to experts, the industry needs investment, but low profitability is one of the barriers to increasing investment in tourism in India.
4.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the natural parks market
Recall that in India, as of 2020, there are more than 11825 protected areas of federal, regional and local significance, the total area of which is 240,2 million hectares, which is 14,7% of the territory of India.
...
All of the above factors can be called growth drivers for the natural parks market, given the growing interest in eco-tourism and nature tourism in India.
...
4.5. Forecast for the development of the natural parks market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
The market analysis was carried out on the basis of methods based on identifying trends over time, adjusted for expert opinion in the industry. When compiling the forecast, methods of mathematical modeling, mathematical analysis and statistics were used, adjusted for market trends and expert opinions.
...
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
Modern statistical forecasting methods are used, taking into account the actual dynamics of the industry and the impact of the current and projected general economic situation in connection with the spread of the covid-19 virus.
In addition, when compiling the forecast, changes in real incomes of the population, trends in consumer preferences in a crisis, development forecasts and the degree of impact of other factors affecting the industry are taken into account.
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
Industry volume over the past 5 years
Industry dynamics in 2008-2009, in 2014-2015, in 2016-2020*
Dynamics of macroeconomic indicators over the past 9-10 years
Current public assistance plans
Databases of the State Statistics Committee of India
Indian Revenue Service databases
Open sources (websites, portals)
Issuer reporting
Company websites
Media Archives
Regional and federal media
Insider sources
Specialized analytical portals
5.3. Timing of forecasting
The forecast belongs to the medium-term category - 5 years (2021-2025)
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the number of visitors to natural parks, 2016–2020
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the market volume of natural parks, 2016–2020
Figure 1. Stage of the life cycle of the market for natural parks
Diagram 3. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2012–2021
Chart 4. Dynamics of real income of the population of India, 2012-2020, available period 2021
Chart 5. Consumption in the natural parks market per capita, 2016–2020
Diagram 6. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the nature parks industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2016–2020, %
Diagram 7. Current liquidity (total coverage) for the natural parks industry for 2016–2020, times
Chart 8. India's GDP evolution, 2012-2020, available period 2021
Chart 9. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2016-2021 available period, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Chart 10. Shares of the largest competitors in the natural parks market in 2020, %
Diagram 11. The dynamics of the total revenue of the largest operators of the market of natural parks (TOP-5) in India, 2016–2020
Diagram 12. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions
Diagram 13. Market volume forecast for natural parks in 2021–2025
Tables
Table 1. Gross Margin of Nature Parks Industry vs. All Industries in India, 2016-2020, %
Table 2. Absolute liquidity of the nature park industry compared to all sectors of the Indian economy, 2016-2020, times
Table 3. Consumer price indices in the natural parks market for India in 2016-2021 (available period), %
Table 4. Average prices in the market of natural parks in the Union Territories
Table 5. STEP analysis of factors influencing the natural parks market
Table 6. Main companies participating in the natural parks market in 2020
Table 7 Natural World Heritage Sites
Table 8. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 9. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
Table 10. Forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy
All reports