Market Forecast for Dance Schools in India
The relevance of research
The industry being assessed includes schools and studios that primarily offer training sessions for children and adults aimed at providing knowledge and skills related to dance, including ballroom dancing, ballet, hip hop, modern dance and many others. The industry includes dance schools for amateur, intermediate and professional dancers
Purpose of the study
Analyzing the state of the dance school market in India, assessing the market size, analyzing competitors, as well as determining the factors affecting the dance school market
Content
Chapter 1. Key Components of the Dance School Market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Growth Rates of the Dance School Market
1.3. Dance school market trends
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. Stage of the life cycle of the dance school market
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
1.9. Price analysis
Chapter 2
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the dance school market
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the dance school market
4.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the dance school market
4.5. Forecast for the development of the dance school market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Key Components of the Dance School Market
1.1. Market size
The industry being assessed includes schools and studios that primarily offer training sessions for children and adults aimed at providing knowledge and skills related to dance, including ballroom dancing, ballet, hip hop, modern dance and many others. The industry includes dance schools for amateur, intermediate and professional dancers.
Prior to the covid-19 crisis, the Indian dance school market was booming, and in 2019, the market size was ... billion rupees.
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Diagram 2. Segmentation of dance school audience by age, %
The main consumers of the Indian dance school market are children and junior group (teenagers) under the age of 12 and 13-18 respectively. In recent years, the age restrictions for dancing have been reduced, more and more often dance schools accept children from 3 years old, and individual schools - from 2 years old. The customer and payer of dance training services for these age groups are their legal representatives (with the exception of older teenagers who earn on their own). At the same time, if for a group of children the decision to learn to dance is made mainly by legal representatives, then for a group of teenagers the decision to start classes is mainly their personal choice.
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Main age segments (desc):
Persons under the age of 12 (mainly from the age of 6);
Persons aged 13 to 18;
Persons aged 19 to 44;
Persons over the age of 45.
It should also be noted that dance training is in demand not only among individual clients. In recent years, a corporate segment of consumers has been formed.
The dance services market in India is actively developing, Western styles and trends are being borrowed. The number of destinations is on the rise. Most of the predictions about the further transformation of dance are directly related to the process of further dissemination of the principles of Contemporary dance: attention to health and anatomy, collaboration of dance and technology, dance going beyond the stage.
The dance market is diverse. Every year the number of proposed directions is expanding: classical ballet, pop, folk, ballroom, modern dances, including hip-hop, house, etc., trying to attract an increasing number of potential customers. Modern society welcomes the improvement of oneself, the development of plasticity and beauty of the body, so many markets that offer relevant services are developing. The shift of interest towards dancing is also due to the fact that people get tired from strength training, and dancing maintains a positive emotional mood. Dancing is a predominantly group type of leisure, while belonging to a group is one of the basic human needs. Working out on your own is often boring and uncomfortable, and in the warm company of like-minded people, people feel safe, calm and confident. In general, spending time in the form of classes, including dancing, and participation in cultural events is a trend of recent years. In addition, dancing in terms of physical activity is not inferior to sports. A sports healthy lifestyle is also a trend of the last decade and has only intensified with the advent of the pandemic.
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1.2. Growth Rates of the Dance School Market
The size of the dance school market was estimated by GidMarket analysts based on the data of the average subscription price, the average number of customers and the total number of schools.
The growth rate of the market in the period 2016-2020 allows us to state that the dance school market is actively developing.
The decline in market volume in 2020 is directly related to the epidemiological situation in the country. The main factors that influenced the sharp negative dynamics of the market:
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1.3. Dance school market trends
According to the study, the following main trends and trends were noted in the dance school market (some of them are discussed in more detail in other sections of the study):
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1.4. The main problems of the industry
The main problems of the industry according to GidMarket and experts' opinions include:
A high degree of dependence of the level of demand on the income of the population (consumers - individuals) and the financial condition of consumer companies (to a much lesser extent). The economic crisis associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
Significant decline in demand for offline dance classes in 2020
Increased competition from related industries.
The high dependence of the success of the dance business on the professionalism of the teaching staff.
Outflow of children's audience in free dance groups.
Disadvantage of offline dancing business in settlements with low population.
The seasonality of the dance industry and, as a result, the lack of a ""financial cushion"" for most players.
Dance schools prefer to sell subscriptions for a certain direction (if a certain number of Latin dance classes are purchased, then it is impossible to attend classes in other directions). The fitness club, the main competitor of dance schools in the adult age segment, is much more convenient in this sense: the club card covers any available destinations. A relatively small number of dance studios today offer the so-called unlimited / single subscription - an analogue of a fitness club card.
Risk of under-enrollment. One of the particular reasons is the weak teaching staff.
The pandemic has taken dance schools by surprise. The industry was less prepared for the crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic than other sectors of the economy.
Rising costs (growth in rental payments, rising prices for electricity, inventory, the need to increase the cost of disinfectants and sanitary and hygiene products, cleaning).
Growth of capital investments during the opening/development of a business due to an increase in the cost of equipment and inventory (especially foreign-made).
Strengthening the sanitary and epidemiological rules and regulations in connection with the coropavirus infection, including in terms of the maximum number of visitors in the dance hall.
Difficulty in holding mass dance events offline due to the epidemiological situation (starting from March 2020).
Restrictions on entry to India for professional Western coaches and choreographers.
Rise in the cost of credit resources.
Taken together, the main issues only shed light on the importance of innovation, proactive approach and cooperation among all market participants in order to support the industry and ensure its further growth. To do this, dance schools need to become, among other things, more flexible and open.
1.5. Stage of the life cycle of the dance school market
In general, the dance school market has the potential for development. However, in cities with a population of over one million, the segment is already quite well developed, and the market is highly saturated. There are many more opportunities for development in Indian regions. The further development of the market will be largely determined by the dynamics of the economic development of India as a whole and the availability of financial opportunities for the potential audience to take dance lessons.
In terms of life cycle stage, the dance school market in India is in its early stages of maturity.
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In the context of the gradual saturation of the market, an increase in volumes is possible by attracting a larger number of adult audiences to dance classes, including people aged 45+, who are few in the dance industry. It is also potentially possible to turn dancing into corporate fitness, so that employers do not buy cards for fitness clubs for their employees, but subscriptions to dances. Thus, the struggle for a potential client intensifies in the domestic Indian market.
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The main task of the dance association at this stage is to maintain, and, if possible, expand its market share and achieve a sustainable advantage over direct competitors. At the moment, various marketing activities, advertising, price offers will be effective.
At the stage of maturity, the main task of marketing activities is to extend the life cycle of the product and involves:
improving the product range through service differentiation;
deeper market segmentation and entry into new segments;
stimulating existing customers to systematic and more frequent attendance;
search for new consumer groups and encourage them to make a purchase.
At the maturity stage, competitive advantage increasingly comes down to cost efficiency gains. Cost efficiency due to economies of scale, low wages and low overheads is a major success factor. R&D, capital investment and marketing costs are lower in the maturity phase than in the growth phase.
In the remote regions of India, the market has not yet reached the mature stage of the life cycle, mainly in the growth stage. At the growth stage, the main task of marketing activities involves:
Ensuring high performance promotional advertising in terms of persuading buyers to make a purchase;
exclusion of direct competition with other market players by improving and modifying the product offer;
determination of the optimal price level, providing a high sales volume and a sufficient rate of return; use of a wide distribution network.
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
The clients of dance schools can be both the population and various enterprises, but to a much lesser extent. Individuals are the end users of dance schools.
The demand for the services of dance schools to a certain extent depends on the general demand of the population for goods and services. The population size and its real incomes are the main indicators characterizing the demand of the population.
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The real incomes of the population determine the level of solvent demand. The diagram below shows the dynamics of the growth rate of this indicator.
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1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
Estimated consumption per capita was made by GidMarket based on the ratio of the market size of dance schools to the population of India.
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Diagram 7. Consumption of dance school services per capita, 2016-2020, Rs./person
1.8. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
According to GidMarket's calculation, based on data on the financial performance of key market companies, the gross margin in the field of dance services in India in 2016-2020. significantly higher than the level of the same indicator for the economy of all industries as a whole.
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A positive trend is a general increase in the value of current liquidity. Values of current liquidity in the period 2018-2020 dance school industries testify to the sufficient solvency of the industry: mark “2” above.
Diagram 9. Current liquidity (total coverage) for the dance school industry for 2016-2020, times
For Indian companies, the normative value of the absolute liquidity ratio is in the range Kal > 0,2 - 0,5. In the field of dance schools in 2016-2017. the indicator of absolute liquidity is estimated within the normative. In 2018-2020 absolute liquidity in the field of dance schools is above the norm, which indicates inefficient and irrational use of funds that could be directed to development. It also indicates the presence of unclaimed amounts of money in the accounts.
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In general, the analysis of industry financial ratios in the field of dance schools shows a declining gross margin and profitability before tax, which is a consequence of the global crisis processes and growing competition in the industry. At the same time, indicators of sectoral values of current and absolute liquidity indicate the ability of most of the main enterprises in the industry to repay current debt at the expense of existing current (current) assets. But due to the pandemic in 2020, the financial strength of companies in the dance school industry has declined significantly.
1.9. Price analysis
GidMarket analysts believe that consumer price indices in the dance school market are similar to price indices for classes in general physical training groups.
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Since the beginning of the pandemic, price growth in the dance school market has slowed down. Moreover, in 2020-2021. there is a significantly lower rate of price growth in the dance school market than the average for all goods and services, which is associated with the containment of price increases by market operators for dance classes in order to retain consumers, as well as an increase in the share of online classes at lower rates.
At the dance school there is an opportunity to study both in a group and in individual lessons. Individual training is 2-3 times more expensive. For each type of training, you can purchase both a separate lesson and a subscription. The Standard Membership is valid for one month and includes 4 or 8 lessons.
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In terms of federal districts, the leaders are the Central and Northwestern federal districts. The cheapest subscriptions are in the North Caucasus Federal District.
Table 5. Average dance school market prices by Union Territories, August 2021, Rs.
Chapter 2
Macroeconomic factors influence the dynamics of all sectors of the Indian economy, including the dance school market. The main groups of factors are: economic, political, social and technological.
2.1. Economic components
Gross domestic product
GDP (gross domestic product) is used to determine the rate of economic development of any state. GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the total value of goods, works and services that were produced and provided in the country in a year. Gross domestic product is the main indicator on the basis of which the level and pace of the country's economic development are determined.
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The expert noted that the forecasts for the recovery of the Indian economy depend on the possible dynamics of the global economy and the development of the epidemiological situation.
Some expert estimates of India's GDP dynamics forecast:
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Rising inflation
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Rent growth
The vast majority of dance studios operate in rented dance halls. Room rental is one of the main cost items for dance schools (from 30 to 45% of operating costs). At the same time, over the past years, the rental rate per square meter of leased area has been constantly increasing. The exception is 2020, when landlords provided discounts due to forced downtime of tenants. By the end of 2020, the rental rate reached the pre-pandemic period, and in 2021, there is a further increase in the rent of non-residential premises in most major cities in India.
In addition, during the pandemic, in the absence of sufficient cash receipts, many market operators faced the problem of timely payment of rental payments.
2.2. Social Components
As mentioned earlier (section 1.6 of this study), the decline in the population of India, as well as the dynamics of real incomes of the population, is currently negatively affecting the dance school market. In addition, the following social factors are noted:
Increasing urbanization
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For a long time, including the period under study, India has been experiencing urbanization of the country - the number of urban residents is increasing and the population of rural settlements is decreasing.
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Urbanization leads to an increase in demand for goods and services in cities and a decrease in demand in small settlements. For the analyzed market - the positive impact of the factor for large cities and negative - for small towns.
Healthy lifestyle
Healthy lifestyle ideas have become a fashion trend in recent years.
Regardless of the direction and specifics, any dances develop and strengthen the body's abilities, have a beneficial effect on immunity. Regular training affects all systems and organs. They improve blood circulation, prevent congestion in muscles and tissues, and help develop a harmonious, beautifully built body. While dancing, students develop the muscles of their bodies, improve flexibility and plasticity, learn stretching and grace.
The desire of Indians to lead a healthy lifestyle increases the demand for the services of dance schools.
Coronavirus
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, all dance schools were temporarily closed in 2020, market operators suffered significant losses due to downtime during quarantine, which negatively affected the market.
Due to new waves of the pandemic, the likelihood of new lockdowns and temporary closures of dance schools remains in the current 2021, as well as in the future. Despite mass vaccination, the spread of the coronavirus does not stop, new waves of the pandemic continue. According to the latest information from experts, “mass vaccination does not stop the spread of coronavirus, and the main goal of vaccinations is to reduce the risk of complications.”
The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has caused widespread economic uncertainty, forcing consumers to cut back on spending. Against the backdrop of the pandemic, there have been changes in consumer behavior and changes in the income structure of the population. Some former clients chose to minimize their visits to public places by excluding offline dance classes in dance groups. Even more detrimental to the industry have been the periodic forced quarantines that have been announced since the beginning of the pandemic for individual families / groups / collectives in all regions of India. During quarantine or self-isolation, people are forced to stay at home, usually for at least 14 days, and refuse to visit public places.
In addition, due to the pandemic, dance schools are forced to comply with new epidemiological norms and rules, including restrictions on the maximum number of students in the dance hall.
Increasing attention to physical culture and sports
In recent years, India as a whole has seen a trend towards increased attention to sports and active lifestyles and an increase in per capita spending on physical education and sports services.
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Diagram 17. Spending on physical culture and sports services per capita for 2017-2020, Rs. in a year
According to the results for 2020, the factor has a negative impact on the analyzed market. However, until 2020 the influence of the factor was positive.
The attitude of society towards dances, established norms of consumption
Comparing with the characteristics of consumers in the United States, it can be seen that in America, many dancers, both professionals and amateurs, continue to engage in modern trends without age restrictions, considering dance a good opportunity to improve their bodies and get positive emotions. In India, age becomes the most important barrier - psychological, because at a subconscious level, people begin to think that they are limited in dance development. All this is supported by the opinions of others, their misunderstanding and ridicule. In turn, trainers are also often not prepared to work with older students and do not know the appropriate teaching methods. Therefore, there are significantly fewer people aged 45+ in the dance industry. However, in recent years the number of dance school attendees of the elegant ""silver"" age has increased.
The established attitude of society towards dancing in adulthood negatively affects the dance school market. However, there is a trend towards a gradual increase in the age of dance school consumers and, according to experts, the established consumption norms are gradually shifting, there are more and more dancers of the older generation in the country. Those adults who really want to dance are much more than those who started dancing in childhood or at a young age.
In the modern world, people are increasingly starting to think about their own old age and how to fill it with lively positive emotions. Active longevity involves the realization of a person's potential at an older age, and this leads to an increase in his life expectancy. In India, the implementation of the principles of active longevity is carried out within the framework of the federal project ""Older Generation"" of the national project ""Demography"". The concept of active aging policy consists of three main parts: ""Health of older citizens"", ""Decent life in older age"" and ""Active participation in society"" and includes various leisure programs. As part of the concept, free dance classes are held for pensioners in certain regions of India. For example, pensioners are offered free dance classes as part of the Moscow Longevity program, and in the Moscow Region - as part of the Active Longevity program. Free dance classes for older people, conducted within the framework of the programs, help to change the age stereotype and increase the number of consumers of older dance schools.
Population aging
Rapid population aging is a global demographic trend of the st century. Traditional indicators of population aging, which are used throughout the world, are growing: the proportion of older people in the total population; aging index (the ratio of the number of elderly and children); dependency ratio at the expense of the elderly (the ratio of the number of elderly and people of working age).
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In light of the fact that the share of the older generation in the consumer profile of Indian dance schools is very low, the trend of an aging population is negatively affecting the dance school market in India.
2.3. Technological components
Seasonality
The dance school business has a pronounced seasonal character. As a rule, the maximum demand is reached during the period from September to December and from February to April. In the summer months, people prefer to spend more free time in nature or go on vacation to country houses.
Dance simulators
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Dance simulators, on the one hand, “take away” some of the potential customers of dance schools, on the other hand, they popularize the dance direction and expand the potential dance audience of dance schools. Multi-vector influence of the factor.
Online Learning
The pandemic gave impetus to the active development of dance education using Internet resources. Online lessons and video lessons are gaining popularity. A large block of resources in various areas of dance is presented on the Web for free.
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The ability to learn dance for free using the Internet has a negative impact on the dance school market.
On the other hand, in the current reality of the coronavirus pandemic and the need to minimize contacts, against the backdrop of the heyday of information technology and digitalization, dance schools can use the trend for online learning as an opportunity to expand and develop business and introduce new forms of interaction with the consumer into the business model.
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Thus, the trend towards learning to dance with the help of Internet resources has a multi-vector impact on the market.
Application of innovative technologies
One of the factors contributing to the solution of technological problems in any industry is the use of innovative technologies and methods. The current crisis associated with the pandemic has pushed many industries towards a global technological upgrade. Restrictive measures (self-isolation, remote work, limits on the number of participants in public events) became the challenge that motivated the dance business to accelerate the introduction of innovations. The pandemic gave impetus to the deployment of a whole complex of digital infrastructure, accelerating this process by several years. In the spring, for many managers of various industries, the dilemma, as old as the world, actualized - to develop at an accelerated pace or to give way to those who do it better. And most dance schools have begun to develop high-tech instruments. The latter helped them retain the audience and maintain sales and keep customers even in the most difficult period. Among the actively implemented technologies: advanced analytics, CRM and process robotization, online and digital technologies.
2.4. Political Components
Sports support
The federal project ""Sport is the norm of life"" started on January 1, 2019. It is part of the national project ""Demography"". The goal of the project ""Sport is the norm of life"" is to increase the number of people in India systematically involved in physical culture and sports up to 2030% by 70. Thanks to the popularization of physical culture and an active lifestyle, the number of citizens who regularly go in for sports is growing every year. The main goal of the project is to improve the quality of life of Indians through physical activity and to form a culture of sports life.
Under the project “Sport is the norm of life”, mass sports are promoted and developed, and conditions for physical activity for all Indians are created and improved.
Within the framework of the project, various master classes, sports and educational programs, trainings and competitions are held. Also, the project ""Sport is the norm of life"" is being implemented in the form of repairing old and building new sports facilities throughout India - from courtyard playgrounds with exercise equipment to sports palaces capable of hosting international competitions.
Governmental support
One of the priority areas for supporting small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) within the framework of the national project ""Small and Medium-sized Businesses and Support for Individual Entrepreneurial Initiatives"" is social entrepreneurship.
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Dance schools may also receive government support through other government programs, including government assistance to support industries most affected by the coronavirus pandemic (for more details, see Section 4.2).
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Credit policy
Today it is quite difficult to imagine the progressive development of the economy without the active participation of the credit system. It should also be noted that the assessment of the availability of credit resources for both legal entities and individuals is a significant indicator that allows assessing not only the demand for credit funds, but can also serve as a reflection of the real economic situation both in the region and in the economy as a whole.
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2.5. STEP-analysis of the dance school market
Table 9. STEP analysis of factors influencing the dance school market
Macro-environment factors have a negative impact on the development of the dance school market. Fluctuations in exchange rates, GRP dynamics, business seasonality, coronavirus, falling incomes, as well as population decline negatively affect the market under study.
Only general trends in the popularity of a healthy lifestyle, various dance events, the use of innovative technologies, credit policy and, in general, federal sports development programs have a positive effect on the dance school market.
Factors such as the possibility of learning with the help of Internet resources, the development of dance simulators, the growth of the level of urbanization have a multi-vector impact on the industry.
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
Global competition: On the one hand, the dance school market is a service market, where, unlike commodity markets, there are no export and import product flows. On the other hand, some large foreign dance brands enter the Indian market (Unidance Worldwide Dance Network, UK, Kinderdance, USA), as well as some Indian schools and studios operate outside of India, which generates various cash flows at the international (global) level. .
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National competition: expressed at an average level. There are several online dance schools operating in different regions of India. The main trend in the development of a network of dance schools in India is through franchising. The vast majority of market companies have a much smaller scale and most often operate in a particular region, forming regional and local competition.
Regional and Local Competition: This is the strongest in the Indian dance school market. Most often, dance studios and schools presented on the Indian market have 1 - 3 locations for dancing in certain localities, nearby areas or states of India.
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
As of October 2021, according to the OKVED code 2 (93.29.2) “Activity of dance floors, discos, dance schools”, 3 operating organizations and individual entrepreneurs were registered as the main activity (including 950 legal entities and 1 individual entrepreneurs) . In addition, a significant number of dance schools have other OKVED codes as their main activity. Many of the dance associations have a network of dance schools at the regional or federal levels.
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Conducting a competitive analysis in the dance school market is complicated by the fact that the networks are represented by several legal entities and individual entrepreneurs. Also, enterprises operating on a franchise basis are included in the network, but they are separate legal entities.
Criteria for determining the share of key market players:
the size of the network in India (the number of own and franchise outlets in the aggregate);
estimated income per school (through the number of regular visitors and the average check);
the revenue of the principal dance school entity or known collection of network entities.
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It should be noted that in this market not all dance schools are direct competitors to each other. Direct competitors are those schools that either teach the same areas or are focused on the same target audience.
According to market participants, the main area with which dance schools have to compete for consumer attention is fitness.
The dance school market in India is characterized by a low level of concentration (large number of operators with relatively small market shares, Herfindahl-Hirschman HHI <1000 - low concentration market).
To the largest dance school market operators in India with the largest market share ...
Diagram 22. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest dance school market operators (TOP-5) in India, 2016–2020, million Rs.
The revenue of the leading companies in the market (Top-5 leaders) tends to increase. But with the onset of the pandemic in 2020, a sharp decline in revenue was recorded.
3.3. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
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Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
An economic crisis is a profound disruption of normal economic activity, which is accompanied by the destruction of habitual economic ties, a decrease in business activity, the inability to repay debts and the accumulation of debt obligations. This is a phenomenon of a market economy, repeating with a certain frequency, and depending on the scale, it can either concern a particular state or be of global importance. The crisis is accompanied by a sharp decline in production, bankruptcy of enterprises, a fall in the gross national product, a large-scale increase in unemployment, and often a depreciation of the national currency.
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4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
Forecasting the development of the dance school market in India is impossible without understanding the economic situation in the country, as well as the impact of the spread of the covid-19 virus and the measures taken.
The most significant difference between the current global crisis caused by the pandemic and the previous ones is the introduction of quarantine and self-isolation, which has a critical impact on markets that mainly operate offline. In India, dance schools were temporarily closed, which had an extremely negative impact on the market.
Since the introduction of restrictive measures in India related to the spread of a new coronavirus infection, the state has been providing the necessary support measures to business representatives who have encountered objective difficulties. Some of them are systemic and apply to all organizations and individual entrepreneurs, while others are intended only for companies and businessmen working in certain sectors of the economy. Also, some measures were developed for enterprises included in the list of backbone enterprises.
A significant number of the support measures announced by the president and the government concern only the industries that the government has identified as the most affected. That is, benefits apply only to legal entities and individual entrepreneurs whose main activity code (OKVED) specified in the unified state register (EGRLE) is included in the government list of such industries.
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Dance schools, the main activity of which according to OKVED corresponds to the above, were included in the list of organizations that suffered financial and material losses from the introduction of the self-isolation regime. Some of the initial measures for affected industries are:
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4.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the dance school market
The most significant difference between the current global crisis caused by the pandemic and the previous ones is the introduction of quarantine and self-isolation, which has a critical impact on service markets that are not the most socially significant and mainly work offline and in groups.
Of course, the covid-19 pandemic has become a global problem for the dance industry as well. The dance industry, as well as related industries, was one of the first to be hit by the coronavirus. During a pandemic, it is almost impossible to ensure the safety of people actively engaged in physical activity indoors. Therefore, all dance schools stopped their work with the introduction of the first quarantine measures.
In 2020, the number of events that impacted the dance school market was a record. The pandemic has significantly impacted the dance school market both in India and globally. This non-market factor, or rather, its indirect influence - the introduction of a self-isolation regime, the suspension of dance schools, restrictions on the entry of professional Western coaches and choreographers to India, rising unemployment, restrictions on mass events - have seriously affected the industry.
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The main theses in connection with the pandemic that began in 2020:
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There is no exact date for the end of the pandemic, experts are not ready to give an accurate forecast. A number of albeit very vague definitions of the end of the pandemic have already “failed” or are about to do so. The WHO refrains from predicting the possible timing of the end of the coronavirus pandemic.
The latest comments on the end of the pandemic are presented in the table below. According to the most optimistic forecasts, the pandemic will end in at least a year, i.e. by the end of 2022 goals.
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Currently, the main barriers, challenges and risks in the dance school industry caused by the covid-19 pandemic are:
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In terms of further risks associated with the coronavirus, since the beginning of 2021, the situation has been largely smoothed out by mass vaccination, as well as by the fact that people and businesses have adapted to the pandemic. Therefore, in the case of new pandemic waves, the reaction of the population and business will be more effective, the behavior will be more rational, and the impact on the economy will be smoother.
Barriers and industry challenges that are not unique to the pandemic are presented in section 1.4 of this study.
Restrictions for clients related to online classes:
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These and other problems complicate the process of teaching dance online and the amateur and professional development of dance students. However, there are positive aspects to online dance classes. One of the most beneficial changes has been the increased availability of classes for both professional and amateur dancers. The pandemic has provided a much-needed opportunity to expand dance education and break down the wall of industry exclusivity. Live streaming of classes has opened up many new opportunities and made it possible to reach a wider audience. The pandemic has led to the creation of dance classes of almost every style and level (conducted by teachers of any level, from trainees to world-class professionals) with the ability to broadcast live or on demand at a time convenient for the client.
4.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the dance school market
The further development of the dance school market in India will largely depend on the general economic condition of the state. India's economic and social outlook prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development until 2024 predicts that India's economy will reach pre-pandemic levels as early as 2021.
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World economy
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Internal conditions
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Exchange rate
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Inflation
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Economic activity
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Incomes
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Prospects and growth drivers for the dance school market:
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4.5. Forecast for the development of the dance school market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
The dance school market forecast is based on methods based on identifying trends over time, taking into account the impact of the current crisis caused by the global coronavirus pandemic, and adjusted for expert opinion in this and related industries.
Expert opinions and forecasts
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For the short and medium term, it is predicted:
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Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
Modern statistical forecasting methods are used, taking into account the actual dynamics of the industry and the impact of the current and projected general economic situation in connection with the spread of the covid-19 virus.
In addition, when compiling the forecast, changes in real incomes of the population, trends in consumer preferences in a crisis, development forecasts and the degree of impact of other factors affecting the industry are taken into account.
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
- Industry volume over the past 5 years
- Industry dynamics in 2008-2009, in 2014-2015, in 2016-2020*
- Dynamics of macroeconomic indicators over the past 9-10 years
- Current public assistance plans
- Databases of the State Statistics Committee of India
- Indian Revenue Service databases
- Open sources (websites, portals)
- Issuer reporting
- Company websites
- Media Archives
- Regional and federal media
- Insider sources
- Specialized analytical portals
* Until October 2021 financial indicators for the main market operators and industry coefficients for 2020 - GidMarket forecast based on the dynamics for 2016-2019, except for cases when the operator discloses data on the results of financial 2020 publicly.
5.3. Timing of forecasting
The forecast belongs to the medium-term category - 5 years (2021-2025)
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Segmentation of the audience of dance schools by gender, %
Diagram 2. Segmentation of dance school audience by age, %
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the market size of dance schools, 2016–2020, billion Rs.
Diagram 4. Population dynamics in India as of January 1, 2010-2021, million people, %
Diagram 5. Population forecast in India for the period 2021-2023, million people
Chart 6. Dynamics of real disposable income of the population of India, 2011 - 2020 and for 9 months of 2021, % compared to the same period of the previous year
Diagram 7. Consumption of dance school services per capita, 2016-2020, Rs./person
Diagram 8. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the dance school industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2016-2020, %
Diagram 9. Current liquidity (total coverage) for the dance school industry for 2016-2020, times
Diagram 10. Business activity (average receivables turnover period) in the field of dance schools, for 2016-2020, days days
Diagram 11. Financial stability (security of own working capital) of the dance school industry, in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2016-2020, %
Chart 12. Consumer price index in the dance school market compared to the CPI for all goods and services for 2016-2020 and for the available period of 2021,%
Diagram 13. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2007-2020 and for 9 months of 2021, billion Rs. and % to the same period last year
Chart 14. Average monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, January 2016 - October 2021, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 15. Consumer price index for all goods and services for 2009 - 2020 and for the available period of 2021, %
Diagram 16. Index of physical volume of paid services of physical culture and sports for 2015-2020, %
Diagram 17. Spending on physical culture and sports services per capita for 2017-2020, Rs. in a year
Chart 18. Internet penetration in India 2010-2020 in comparison with the USA and China, %
Diagram 19. Dynamics of the average interest rate on loans, 2015-2020, %
Diagram 20. Number of dance schools per 100 thousand people. population, 2016-2020, units
Diagram 21. Shares of the largest competitors in the dance school market in 2020, %
Diagram 22. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest dance school market operators (TOP-5) in India, 2016–2020, million Rs.
Diagram 23. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions
Chart 24. Results of a survey on the preparedness of sports and recreation organizations for the crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic, %
Diagram 25. Basic forecast of the market size of dance schools in 2021–2025, billion Rs.
Diagram 26. Forecast of the market size of dance schools in 2021–2025, comparison of three scenarios, billion Rs.
Tables
Table 1. Dance styles
Table 2. Gross margin of the dance school industry compared to all industries in India, 2016-2020, %
Table 3. Absolute liquidity of the dance school industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2016-2020, times
Table 4. Consumer price indices in the dance school market in India in 2015-2020 and for January-August 2021, %
Table 5. Average dance school market prices by Union Territories, August 2021, Rs.
Table 6. Forecasts of various sources for real GDP in India in 2021-2023 (base scenario), %
Table 7. Urban and rural population in India in 2015-2020 (as of January 1), million people, %
Table 8. Weighted average interest rates of credit institutions on credit operations in rupees, excluding PJSC Sberbank (% per annum), 2015-2020 and for August 2021
Table 9. STEP analysis of factors influencing the dance school market
Table 10. The main companies participating in the dance school market in 2020
Table 11. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 12. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the government assistance proposed as of the current date as part of economic support in connection with the coronavirus infection
Table 13. Latest forecasts for the end of the covid-19 pandemic
Table 14. Forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy until 2024 (base case), units rev.
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