Market development forecast for sturgeon (black) caviar in India
The relevance of research
Black caviar is one of the gastronomic associations in India.. This is a product, with attractiveness high taste, nutritional value, the sophistication of which is undeniable. In the absence of a deterrent price factor, sturgeon caviar would be happy to be consumed by the dominant majority of the population
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the sturgeon (black) caviar market in India, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the market of sturgeon (black) caviar
Content
Chapter 1. Key components of the sturgeon (black) caviar market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Growth rates of the sturgeon (black) caviar market
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
1.4. Volume and dynamics of sturgeon (black) caviar production
1.5. Import of sturgeon (black) caviar. Volume and dynamics
1.6. Export of sturgeon (black) caviar. Volume and dynamics
1.7. Share of exports in production
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Sturgeon (black) caviar market trends
2.2. The main problems of the industry
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
2.7. Stage of the life cycle of the sturgeon (black) caviar market
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
3.2. Social Components
3.3. Technological components
3.4. Political Components
3.5. STEP-analysis of the sturgeon (black) caviar market
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
4.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the sturgeon (black) caviar market
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the sturgeon (black) caviar market
5.5. Forecast for the development of the sturgeon (black) caviar market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
6.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Key components of the sturgeon (black) caviar market
1.1. Market size
At the end of 2020, the market volume amounted to ... tons, which exceeded the level of 2013 ... Relative to 2019, the market is ...%. The main factor behind the growth of the sturgeon caviar market … was a sharp …
Currently, the production of sturgeon caviar dominates in …
The subject of this study does not include sturgeon caviar substitutes: natural or artificial. Also, sturgeon caviar obtained through …
1.2. Growth rates of the sturgeon (black) caviar market
The highest growth rate in the study period was observed in 2014 - more than ... The development of aquaculture allowed to increase production by ...%, while there was a decrease ... by ...%, these factors allowed the market to grow in 2014 by ...%.
Relative to 2014, the volume of the sturgeon caviar market increased by …% at the end of 2020.
The annual dynamics of the market are significantly influenced by individual events and operations, for example, such as the emergence of …
Consumption growth is being held back... The price of the product is too high for many Indian consumers. It is assumed that further ... in the future will be able to give a significant market growth due to an increase in the percentage, ...
The second, although no less significant factor in the further growth of the market volume is the question of …
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
In 2013, the share of imports in the Indian sturgeon caviar market was …%, which is … the value for the entire study period. In 2014-2016 import deliveries …%.
In 2017-2018 share of imported products …%, which was associated with the active development of ... In 2019-2020. the share of imports decreased …% due to growth ...
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the sturgeon (black) caviar market, 2013–2020, %
1.4. Volume and dynamics of sturgeon (black) caviar production
In total, commercial sturgeons are grown in India about ... farms located mainly in ... basins. The most common types are…
In 2017-2018 caviar production is gradually … – relative to 2016 …%. In 2019, the production of sturgeon caviar …%. According to one version, due to earlier ...
Unscrupulous manufacturers import from abroad, mainly from …
1.5. Import of sturgeon (black) caviar. Volume and dynamics
Import deliveries of sturgeon caviar to the Indian market are ... in nature. The maximum volume of imports in the study period fell on … and amounted to … tons. Import growth in 2017-2018 was due to the activation of ... In 2019, the volume of imports …% also …, the supply of which in this period, on the contrary, decreased to … tons. At the end of 2020, the volume of imports was …%, while supplies of Chinese-made caviar increased to … tons.
Diagram 4. Volume and dynamics of imports of sturgeon (black) caviar in natural terms, 2013–2020, tons
The volume of imports of sturgeon caviar in monetary terms in 2020 amounted to … million US dollars, which is …% lower than in 2013, due to ...
It is difficult for an Indian manufacturer to deal with imported products that have … This imbalance leads to the fact that a number of Indian enterprises specializing in packing sturgeon caviar prefer to pack …
...
1.6. Export of sturgeon (black) caviar. Volume and dynamics
In 2014, export volumes sharply … against the background of ... In 2014-2019. the volume of export deliveries of sturgeon caviar from India is characterized by … tons per year. The absence of pronounced dynamics allows us to state that the export direction in India is developing …
At the end of 2020, the volume of exports of sturgeon caviar is … tons due to a reduction in supplies to … zones
The dynamics of the value of exports in dollar terms are somewhat different, due to the processes ... At the end of 2020, sturgeon caviar was exported from India for ... million US dollars, which is below the level of 2019 by ...%.
1.7. Share of exports in production
In 2013, …% of sturgeon caviar from production was sent for export. In 2014-2019 the share of export in the volume of production was within …%. This means that sturgeon caviar obtained from Indian aquaculture has buyers on …
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Sturgeon (black) caviar market trends
Trends:
...
2.2. The main problems of the industry
The main problems of the industry include:
...
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
During 2012-2017 India's population showed … dynamics. However, in 2018 the vector has changed – the population …
The current demographic situation in India is characterized by a natural population decline (since 2017), which is accelerating, and a migration gain, which …
The number of the resident population of India as of January 1, 2021, according to preliminary …, amounted to … million people, which is … thousand people less than as of January 1, 2020. A larger reduction was observed in India following the results of …
Overall, according to the cabinet estimate, India's population will be...
Rosstat predicts that the birth rate (the number of children per woman) will decrease from … to … by 2025.
Earlier, Rosstat published a demographic forecast up to 2036. The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in the country's population to … million people. by early 2036. The most pessimistic is …
...
At the same time, the dynamics of real incomes of the population during 2014-2017. of the population …, so in 2014 real incomes decreased by …% compared to 2013, in 2015 – by …% compared to 2014, in 2016 – the situation worsened even more – …
According to Rosstat, the real disposable money income of Indians in 2020 decreased by …% compared to 2019. The consequences of the covid-19 pandemic and quarantine restrictions were a reduction in earnings …
In 2 sq. In 2021, real disposable incomes increased by …% against the same quarter a year ago after declining by …% in the first quarter of the year. Growth in the 2nd quarter. 2021 was expected as the base …
According to the results of the 1st half of 2021, real disposable income increased by …% compared to the same half of 2020. The Ministry of Economic Development expects this indicator to grow by …% by the end of 2021.
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
Market players conditionally divide customers into two large categories: regular customers, whose monthly expenses ..., and buyers, ... The second group in 2020 has expanded significantly: this positive trend, according to experts, is associated with the growth of …
At the same time, requests for certification have become more frequent ...
The calculation of the level of consumption of sturgeon caviar per capita confirms that the consumption of black caviar is ... So, at the end of 2020, there is only ... a gram of black caviar per Indian (according to estimates of the volume of the legal market).
Over the study period, a significant change in the consumption of sturgeon caviar among the population of India ... A threefold increase in consumption in an eight-year period with such a small market volume confirms the hypothesis that sturgeon caviar remains ...
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
According to GidMarket's calculation, based on data on the financial performance of key market companies, the gross profitability of the sturgeon (black) caviar industry over the entire period under review is … the level for all industries as a whole. In 2020, the indicator amounted to …%, which is by … p.p. … the level of gross margin in all industries.
Profitability before tax in the entire study period (2015-2020) … than that of all industries in India. In 2020, the profitability before tax in the sturgeon (black) caviar industry amounted to …%.
Diagram 12. Profitability of profit before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the sturgeon (black) caviar industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
The values of current liquidity above the “…” mark indicate … At the end of 2020, current liquidity amounted to … times.
For Indian companies, the normative value of the absolute liquidity ratio is within ... In the sturgeon (black) caviar industry in the study period, the absolute liquidity indicator is significantly ... of the normative value (except for 2016), which indicates ...
In general, the analysis of sectoral financial ratios of the sturgeon (black) caviar industry shows high gross profitability and profitability before tax, while the indicators …
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
In terms of regions, the leader in terms of black caviar production is … region (…%), where the largest Indian sturgeon breeding enterprise – … group of companies … is located.
...
The third in terms of production volume is … federal district (…%). The most notable caviar companies in this region are …
Next in terms of production is…
Diagram 14. The compactness of the location of companies in the industry in certain regions, 2020,
2.7. Stage of the life cycle of the sturgeon (black) caviar market
...
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services produced in a year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation.
The dynamics of India's GDP are decisive in the vector of development of the entire economy of the country and determine …
In 2012-2014 the GDP growth rate was positive, but constantly declining, and in 2015 it was less than zero. In 2015, which was the peak of the crisis in the state, the decline in GDP amounted to …% compared to the previous year of 2014, and since the dynamics of GDP are directly proportional to the well-being of citizens, this indicates …
In 2016, GDP stagnated, …
...
In 2020, the decline in India's GDP, according to …, amounted to …%. This is the biggest drop in GDP since 2009, when the country's economy shrank by …%. According to Rosstat, the decline in GDP is mainly due to restrictive …
India's GDP, according to …, in January-May 2021 increased by …% compared to the corresponding period of 2020, while in April 2021 against the background of a low base …
...
3.2. Social Components
...
3.3. Technological components
...
3.4. Political Components
...
3.5. STEP-analysis of the sturgeon (black) caviar market
According to the results of the performed STEP-analysis, macro-environment factors have a greater influence on the development of the sturgeon caviar market.
Significant negative factors include...
We also note that negative factors include ...
Table 3. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the sturgeon (black) caviar market
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
...
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
The sturgeon caviar market is characterized by … concentration – five leading companies account for …% of the volume of sturgeon caviar production in India.
According to GidMarket, the market leader is … with a share of …%, the second place is taken by OOO “…” with a share of …%. Rounding out the top three...
Diagram 18. Shares of the largest competitors in the sturgeon (black) caviar market in 2020, %
4.3. Competition from substitute products
...
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
...
In the first half of 2020, many markets felt the impact of the pandemic and the onset of the economic crisis. Let us analyze the data on the impact of recent crises on the sturgeon (black) caviar market (the global crisis in 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014).
Table 5. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
The most significant difference between the current crisis and the previous ones is…
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
...
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the sturgeon (black) caviar market
...
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the sturgeon (black) caviar market
...
5.5. Forecast for the development of the sturgeon (black) caviar market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
...
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
...
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
...
6.3. Timing of forecasting
...
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the market volume of sturgeon (black) caviar, 2013–2020, tons
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the sturgeon (black) caviar market, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 3. Dynamics of production volumes of sturgeon (black) caviar in India, 2013–2020, tons
Diagram 4. Volume and dynamics of imports of sturgeon (black) caviar in natural terms, 2013–2020, tons
Diagram 5. Volume and dynamics of imports of sturgeon (black) caviar in monetary terms, 2013–2020, thousand US dollars
Diagram 6. The volume and dynamics of exports of sturgeon (black) caviar in physical terms, 2013–2020, tons
Diagram 7. The volume and dynamics of exports of sturgeon (black) caviar in monetary terms, 2013–2020, thousand US dollars
Chart 8. Share of exports in production, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 9. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2012-2021, million people
Diagram 10. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, % to the previous year, 2012-1 half a year. 2021
Diagram 11. The volume of consumption in the market of sturgeon (black) caviar per capita, 2013–2020, Rs./year
Diagram 12. Profitability of profit before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the sturgeon (black) caviar industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
Diagram 13. Current liquidity (total coverage) for the sturgeon (black) caviar industry for 2015–2020, times
Diagram 14. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions, 2020, %
Diagram 15. Industry life cycle stage
Chart 16. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-May 2021, % to the previous year
Diagram 17. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, Rs. for 1 US dollar, 2016-Sep. 2021
Diagram 18. Shares of the largest competitors in the sturgeon (black) caviar market in 2020, %
Diagram 19. Forecast of the market volume of sturgeon (black) caviar in 2021–2025, tons
Tables
Table 1. Gross profitability of the sturgeon (black) caviar industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
Table 2. Absolute liquidity of the sturgeon (black) caviar industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, times
Table 3. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the sturgeon (black) caviar market
Table 4. Main companies participating in the sturgeon (black) caviar market in 2020
Table 5. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 6. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed as of April 06.09.2021,
Table 7. Forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy
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