Market Analysis of Goat Milk Baby Food in India
The relevance of research
Baby food is a product that is always subject to increased requirements. According to the popular expression ""All the best for children"", children's food must meet the highest criteria of quality and usefulness. The Indian market has a fairly wide range, offering parents various types and tastes of food for their children, but continues to develop rapidly, new types of products and manufacturing companies appear.
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the baby food market from goat's milk, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the baby food market from goat's milk.
Content
Part 1. Overview of the Goat Milk Baby Food Market in India
1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.3. Volume of domestic production
1.4. Share of exports in production
1.5. Share of imports in production
1.6. Dynamics of the volume and capacity of the market in 2015-2017
1.7. Market structure by types of products
Part 2. Analysis of imports in 2017
2.1. The volume of imports of products
2.2. Import structure:
2.2.1. by producing countries (in physical and value terms)
2.2.2. by manufacturing companies (in physical and value terms)
2.2.3. by companies - recipients (in kind and value terms)
2.2.4. by trademarks (in physical and value terms)
Part 3: Competitor Analysis
3.1. Major players in the market
3.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Competitors' prices
Part 4. Consumption analysis
4.1. Analysis of consumer preferences
4.2. Market structure by consumption sectors
Part 5. Consumption forecast until 2022
Part 6. Recommendations and conclusions
Research excerpt
Part 1. Overview of the Goat Milk Baby Food Market in India
1.1. Main characteristics of the market
Providing healthy nutrition to children in their first years of life is one of the most important tasks of all parents. Natural feeding, of course, is a priority, but at present, high-quality breast milk substitutes make it possible to give the child all the elements and useful substances necessary for life.
About 2 million babies are born in India every year - this figure is still floating, but the trend towards population growth continues, including due to measures taken by the state: maternity capital, the construction of new perinatal centers, promotion of family values in the media, etc. However, In addition to these quite positive figures, there is another, not very pleasant one - every year the number of young mothers who have problems with breast milk is growing.
1.2. Assessment of factors affecting the market
Economic forces
GDP is the main, most complete official indicator of social welfare. The absolute and relative values of GDP give an idea of the general material well-being of the nation and the dynamics of its growth / decrease, since the higher the level of production, the higher the welfare of the country.
Diagram 1. Dynamics of GDP growth in India, 2012 - 2017, % to the previous year
The exchange rate is a significant factor for the goat milk baby food market, since today this food segment is 100% imported and even in the analyzed perspective (until 2022) the share of imports will significantly exceed the volume of potential domestic industrial production.
The US dollar is currently up 15,4% against the rupee compared to June 2015. The dollar has been relatively stable over the past 18 months.
Earlier, in 2014, the growth of the dollar exchange rate amounted to almost 100%, which led to the devaluation of the rupee and had a strong negative impact on the level of effective demand of the population as a whole, led to a change in the structure of consumption - preference is given to cheaper food and goods in all segments.
Demographic/social factors
Over the past seven years, the change in the population of India has shown a positive trend - there is a positive natural increase in the population.
At the same time, not only is the population growing (due to an increase in average life expectancy), but periods of an increase in the birth rate have also been noted. Unfortunately, it is still too early to talk about a stable increase in the birth rate. A significant reduction in the birth rate occurs in waves, after each period of economic recession.
Population growth and the maintenance/growth of the birth rate provide a potential present and future demand for goat milk baby food as a product recommended for baby food with proven biological value.
Chart 6. Dynamics of India's population and birth rate, 2010-2017
In 2017, the birth rate in India fell immediately by 10,7%, which follows from the Rosstat report. According to agency estimates, approximately 1,69 million children were born in the country during the year, which is 203 thousand children less than in 2016. In terms of fertility, 2017 was the worst year of the last decade: the last time fewer births were recorded in India only in 2007 (1,61 million children).
1.3. Volume of domestic production
Consider the volume of Indian production of dry formulas for baby food.
Due to the fact that at present, goat milk is not processed by Indian enterprises to produce baby food on an industrial scale, there is no official statistics on the topic.
Diagram 7. Structure of production of baby food and dietary food OKVED 2 (10.86) by the Union Territories of India, %, 2017
1.4. Share of exports in production
Export deliveries of powdered milk formulas are insignificant and do not have a significant impact on the market. Of the volume of all types of milk formulas produced in India, according to the estimates of operators in this market segment, from ... to ...% of the products are exported.
Due to the fact that there is currently no export of goat milk-based formulas for baby food, we will consider the overall dynamics of exports in the industry.
Official statistics take into account the export of all types of baby food put up for retail sale in one amount.
According to the results of exports in 2014, it can be noted that they buy products for …% of the countries of the former CIS.
1.5. Share of imports in production
The Indian baby food market is import-dependent: in comparison with the volume of domestic production, at least ...% is imported.
1.6. Dynamics of the volume and capacity of the market in 2015-2017
Considering that 2015-2016 showed a crisis situation in the Indian economy, characterized by a reduction in the purchasing power of the population, stagnation in consumption and production, and the results of 2017 recorded …
Diagram 12. Dynamics of the baby food market volume, billion Rs., 2014 - 2017
1.7. Market structure by types of products
The structure of the baby food market by type of product (form of release) is divided into …
Diagram 13. Market structure by types of products, 2017
Part 2. Analysis of imports in 2017
2.1. The volume of imports of products
Due to the fact that baby food based on goat's milk is not produced in India, there are fairly stable volumes of its imports.
2.2. Import structure:
2.2.1. by producing countries (in physical and value terms)
Let us consider the structure of imports of baby food, as well as baby food based on goat milk supplied to the Indian market, by producing countries.
2.2.2. by manufacturing companies (in physical and value terms)
Consider the structure of imports by companies - manufacturers of products supplied to the Indian market.
Diagram 17. The structure of imports of baby food based on goat milk by manufacturing companies in physical terms, 2017
2.2.3. by companies - recipients (in kind and value terms)
Consider the structure of exports by companies - recipients of products supplied to the Indian market.
2.2.4. by trademarks (in physical and value terms)
Consider the structure of imports by brands supplied to the Indian market. According to the results of 2017, the largest volume of imports (by tonnage) was recorded for the products of the “…” trademark, which supplies infant formula. Market share - …%
Part 3: Competitor Analysis
3.1. Major players in the market
When it comes to the largest players in the goat milk-based baby food market, it must be taken into account that there is currently no such type of food in the Indian production, the market is just being formed. Consequently, new impulses for its development can come from two directions, and the largest players need to be taken into account, both current and potential ones: ...
3.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
The assessment of the shares of the largest competitors in the Indian market was made on the basis of data from operators on the officially declared revenue of companies in 2014-2016. and preliminary results for 2017, taking into account data from the Customs Service on product imports. Initially, we will consider the market shares of the leaders in the baby food industry as a whole, which will clearly show the share of operators involved in the sale, including baby food based on goat's milk.
Diagram 23. Shares of companies in the baby food market (all types of baby food), 2015 - 2017
3.3. Competitors' prices
The sale of powdered milk formulas on the market is one of the high-margin business areas, which includes a long value-added chain. On average, according to market analysts, consumer prices …
Part 4. Consumption analysis
4.1. Analysis of consumer preferences
Consumer preferences when choosing baby food are influenced by many factors, they can be divided into two main groups: ...
Diagram 25. Matrix of consumer preferences, %
Part 5. Consumption forecast until 2022
To form a forecast for the baby food market based on goat's milk, it is necessary to focus on its most current trends, predict them over time, adjusted for expert opinion in the industry.
Part 6. Recommendations and conclusions
Based on the analysis done in the work, the following conclusions can be drawn on the topic: ...
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of GDP growth in India, 2012 - 2017, % to the previous year
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, June 2015 - June 2018, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 3. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2010 - 2017, % to the previous period
Diagram 4. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, %, 2013 - 2017, forecast up to 2020, cumulative total
Diagram 5. Indian Retail Volume Indices, 2007 - 2017
Diagram 6. Dynamics of India's population and birth rate, 2010-2017
Diagram 7. Structure of production of baby food and dietary food OKVED 2 (10.86) by the Union Territories of India, %, 2017
Diagram 8. Shares of Indian regions in baby food exports (code 19011/), 2017, %
Diagram 9. Shares of recipient countries of baby food exports (code 19011), 2014, %
Diagram 10. Shares of recipient countries of baby food exports (code 19011), 2017, %
Diagram 11. Share of imports in the baby food market, 2017
Diagram 12. Dynamics of the volume of the baby food market, billion Rs., 2014 - 2017
Diagram 13. Market structure by types of products, 2017
Diagram 14. Country shares in baby food imports, 2017
Diagram 15. Shares of countries in imports of baby food based on goat's milk, in monetary terms, 2017
Diagram 16. Shares of countries in imports of baby food based on goat's milk, in kind, 2017
Diagram 17. The structure of imports of baby food based on goat's milk by manufacturing companies in physical terms, 2017
Diagram 18. The structure of imports of baby food based on goat milk by manufacturing companies in monetary terms, 2017
Diagram 19. Structure of volumes of imported baby food based on goat's milk in physical terms to recipient companies, 2017
Diagram 20. Structure of volumes of imported baby food based on goat's milk in monetary terms to recipient companies, 2017
Diagram 21. Structure of imports of baby food based on goat's milk by brands in physical terms, 2017
Diagram 22. Structure of imports of baby food based on goat milk by brands in monetary terms, 2017
Diagram 23. Shares of companies in the baby food market (all types of baby food), 2015 - 2017
Diagram 24. Shares of competitors in the baby food market with goat milk, 2017
Diagram 25. Matrix of consumer preferences, %
Diagram 26. Channels for the sale of baby food
Diagram 27. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, forecast until 2020
Diagram 28. Baby food consumption in India in 2015-2017, forecast up to 2022, million Rs.
Tables
Table 1. Indian Industrial Production Index (in % of the previous year), 2008-2017
Table 2. Average per capita income by regions of India, 2013 - 2017, Rs.
Table 3. Investments in the production of baby food and dietary foods, OKVED 2 (code 10.86), mln Rs., 2015-2017
Table 4. STEP analysis of factors affecting the market
Table 5. Volumes of production of infant formulas, tons, 2010 - 2017
Table 6. Production of baby food and dietary foods OKVED 2 (10.86), share of regions in %, 2014 - 2017
Table 7. The volume of production of baby food and dietary food OKVED 2 (10.86), million Rs. without VAT, 2014 - 2017
Table 8. Share of exports in baby food production in India, 2014-2017
Table 9. Volume and amount of baby food exports, 2017
Table 10. Analysis of import volumes in the Indian baby food market, million Rs., 2014 - 2017
Table 11. Directions of import of imported baby food, (code 19011), thousand $
Table 12. Volume and capacity of the baby food market in India, million Rs. without VAT, 2014 - 2017
Table 13. The volume of imports of baby food, tons, 2014 - 2017
Table 14. Volumes of imports of baby food based on goat's milk by manufacturing companies, 2017
Table 15. Companies receiving imported baby food, incl. based on goat milk, 2017
Table 16. Major players in the baby food market
Table 17. Average prices of imported baby food, 2017-2018, Rs. / kg
Table 18. Average Indian Producer Prices for Milk Formula, 2014-2018, Rs. / kg
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