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Market analysis of fresh (chilled) fish in India

Release date 09.03.2021

Number of pages 51

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The relevance of research

The present study considers fresh and chilled fish. Fresh fish - fish without signs of vital activity with a temperature in the thickness of the muscles close to the ambient temperature. The fresh fish market in this study refers to the totality of enterprises that form the market supply, the number of consumers that form the market demand, as well as the relationship that arises between sellers and consumers.

Purpose of the study

Analysis of the state of the fresh fish market, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the fresh fish market

Content

Part 1. Overview of the Indian Fresh Fish Market

1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Dynamics of fresh fish market volume 2015-2019 Potential market capacity
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.4. Life cycle stage of fresh fish market
1.5. Competition from substitute products

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the fresh fish market

2.1. Major players in the market
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
2.3. Profiles of major players

Part 3. Analysis of fresh fish production

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of fresh fish
3.2. Share of exports in fresh fish production
3.3. Segmentation of fresh fish production by region
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
3.3.2. Production by states of India

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of fresh fish

4.1. Volume and dynamics of fresh fish imports
4.2. Import structure
4.3. Volume and dynamics of fresh fish exports
4.4. Export structure

Part 5. Fresh fish consumption analysis

5.1. Dynamics of fresh fish consumption volume
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

Part 8. Forecast for the development of the fresh fish market until 2024

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions

Research excerpt

Part 1. Overview of the Indian Fresh Fish Market

1.1. Main characteristics of the market

The subject of this study is the fresh fish market. The fresh fish market in this study refers to the totality of enterprises that form the supply of the market, the number of consumers that form the demand of the market, as well as the relationship that arises between sellers and consumers.

The present study considers fresh and chilled fish. Fresh fish - fish without signs of vital activity with a temperature in the thickness of the muscles close to the ambient temperature (raw fish), as well as chilled fish, the temperature of which in the thickness of the muscle tissue is maintained at a level of -1 to 5 °C. In the Indian market, fresh fish is represented by products from fishery (wild fish) and fish farming (aquaculture).
According to GOST 814-96, raw fish and raw fish can be raw materials for chilled fish. That is, chilled fish is fish that is not frozen. Transport and store chilled fish in accordance with GOST at a temperature of 0 to -2 ° C for 7-12 days, depending on the season and product size.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), India is one of the leaders in the production (harvesting) and export of fish and seafood. India has the 4th place in the world in terms of catching fish in the seas and oceans and 10th place in the production of fish in inland rivers and reservoirs. At the same time, in terms of aquaculture production, India lags far behind the world leaders in the fishing industry.

The Indian market for fresh fish is dominated by domestically produced products.

Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the fresh fish market in 2015-2019, %

The production of fish products is extremely unevenly distributed throughout India, which is due to natural conditions, water resources, territorial factors and the level of development of transport infrastructure. Accordingly, the delivery of fresh, chilled fish to the consumer in compliance with all GOST standards in many regions is difficult, so there is a segment of defrosted (thawed) fish on the Indian market, which is sold under the guise of chilled products. It can be freshly caught products, blast-frozen directly at sea, or slow-frozen products already on the shore. This product is outside the scope of this study.

The Indian market offers a wide range of fresh fish. In the segment of marine wild fish, salmon and cod breeds are in the lead. Freshwater wild fish differs from the region of production, but the main commercial species are salmon, sturgeon, whitefish, cyprinids, as well as catfish and pike. Commercial aquaculture is mainly represented by salmon, sturgeon, whitefish and cyprinids.

1.2. Dynamics of fresh fish market volume 2015-2019 Potential market capacity

Consider the volume dynamics of the fresh fish market in India.

At the end of 2019, the volume of the fresh fish market amounted to ... thousand tons, ...
...

The structure of proceeds from the sale of fresh fish as a whole corresponds to production volumes and the ratio of producers' prices. ...

Diagram 3. Revenue (net) from the sale of fresh fish in the union territories for 2015 - 2019, %

1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market

Let's consider the main factors influencing the market and, accordingly, demand.

Economic

- Data on the dynamics of GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services (that is, intended for direct consumption) produced per year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation. The dynamics of India's GDP is decisive in the vector of development of the entire economy of the country and determines the key trends in consumer effective demand and economic activity.
...

– The turnover of retail trade is a reflection of the effective demand of the population and the level of real incomes of the population.
Fresh fish is not a commodity, therefore, in the event of a decrease in purchasing activity in general, the reduction in the share of purchases of such goods will be maximum, ...

– Depreciation of the national currency
...
– The level of real incomes of the population. In 2018, the growth rate of real disposable income of the population for the first time in a four-year period (since 2014) showed a positive trend, increasing by 0,1% compared to 2017, which could not compensate for the decline in previous years.

...
Социальные

- Demographic. During 2011-2017 India's population has shown a positive trend.
...

- Cultural traditions. In India, there is no common culture of fish consumption. Consumption of fish products is due to different traditions in different regions, which are largely determined by the proximity of fishing reservoirs.

technological

- Development of aquaculture.
...

- Technical renewal of the fishing fleet is a paramount task for the development of the fishing industry in India. To date, the Indian fleet is significantly inferior to the world leaders in terms of technical equipment. Many companies use ships built back in the Soviet era that need to be updated.

- Logistics. One of the main problems hindering the development of the fresh fish market is the timely delivery of products to the end consumer. The term for the sale of fresh fish according to GOST is no more than 12 days, and the main production is concentrated in the Far East and North-West, which significantly limits delivery methods to many regions of India, affecting the price of products for the end consumer.

Political

Fresh fish is subject to the requirement of GOST 814-96 “Chilled fish. Specifications"". Strict transport and storage regulations make the work of producers, distributors and retailers much more difficult, as a result of which the segment of thawed (defrosted) fish and counterfeit products is actively developing.

Strict control by border authorities and veterinary control over the work of fishing companies significantly complicates their work, as a result of which many fishermen prefer to sell their catch outside of India, which has a negative impact on the development of the fresh fish market.

On the other hand, several areas of state support for the fishing industry have been developed, which are planned to be reviewed and finalized in 2021, taking into account the needs of market players.

Table 1. STEP analysis of factors affecting the fresh fish market

In general, macro-environment factors have a negative impact on the development of the fresh fish market, mainly due to the negative impact of a group of economic and social factors. The influence of other groups of factors is multi-vector. Significant constraining factors include a decline in real incomes of the population for more than five years, stringent industry regulations and logistical difficulties.

The analyzed market is stimulated by the development of commercial aquaculture production and the technical renewal of the fishing fleet (a group of technological factors), as well as government support measures for the industry.

1.4. Life cycle stage of fresh fish market

The fresh fish market is in a growth stage. This is evidenced by:
Growth in consumption (purchase) of fresh fish in monetary terms
Low consumption of fresh fish per capita relative to the global level and the level of developed countries
Growth and development of domestic production
Market growth potential remains quite high

1.5. Competition from substitute products

The main competition as substitute products in the fresh fish market is fish and fish products with a longer shelf life - frozen fish and canned fish. Due to the fact that fresh fish is not a commodity and can be replaced by cheaper products, the sales volume of this group is highly responsive to negative changes in the economy.

According to the All India Association of Fisheries Enterprises, Entrepreneurs and Exporters (VARPE), the coronovirus pandemic has affected consumer behavior and demand for fish and fish products in the world. Falling household incomes and a change in purchasing behavior towards long-term food stockpiling has led to an increase in demand for canned and frozen products, while the closure of restaurants has led to a decrease in demand for fresh fish.

In addition, the market is highly competitive with thawed (defrosted) products sold as chilled, which are priced lower and have a much higher retail presence and variety in most parts of India.

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the fresh fish market

2.1. Major players in the market

According to Rosstat, there are more than 4000 fishing and fish farming companies operating in the Indian market, with a predominance of fishing companies. The largest fishing companies in terms of revenue mainly supply fresh-frozen fish and seafood for export and the domestic market. It should be noted that their products are present in the Indian fresh fish market, but mainly in the form of defrosted (defrosted), which is not included in the subject of this study (see paragraph 1.1.).

The production of fresh fish is carried out by fish farms and fishing companies, mainly engaged in coastal fishing. According to the Law ""On Fishing"", aquatic biological resources caught in the coastal zone must come to the shore in a chilled fresh or live form. Taking into account the terms of permitted storage of chilled products in accordance with GOST and the duration of fishing trips, most of the fresh fish delivered to the port does not reach the end consumer, but goes to processing enterprises.

Thus, it is advisable to divide the largest market players into 2 groups:
Companies that produce and supply fresh fish for sale to the end consumer.
Companies producing and processing/supplying fresh fish for processing.
...

2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors

The assessment of the shares of competitors in the analyzed market was carried out by GidMarket in terms of market value, based on data on the revenue of enterprises and the share of the object of study in the total assortment of the main market operators.
At the end of 2019, the largest producer of fresh fish in India among the companies producing and supplying fresh fish for sale to the end consumer was PJSC “...”, which ranked ...
...

2.3. Profiles of major players

Companies producing and supplying fresh fish for sale to the end consumer
JSC ""XXX""
...
PJSC ""XXX""
...
JSC ""XXX""
...
GC ""XXX""
...
LLC ""XXX""
...
JSC ""XXX""
...
LLC ""XXX""
...
GK XXX
...
GC ""XXX""
...
Group of companies ""XXX""
...

Part 3. Analysis of fresh fish production

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of fresh fish

The volume of fresh fish production in India in 2019 amounted to ... thousand tons, ...
...

In January-November 2020, according to preliminary data from Rosstat, ... thousand tons of fresh fish were produced (caught).

Diagram 10. Dynamics of fresh fish production in India for 2015 - 2019, January-November 2020

The TOP-5 manufacturing enterprises in the segment of companies producing and supplying fresh fish for sale to the final consumer include...
...

TOP-5 among companies producing and processing / supplying fresh fish for processing ...

3.2. Share of exports in fresh fish production

The production of fresh fish in India is focused mainly on the domestic market. The export direction of fresh fish is not yet developed. The share of exports in production in the analyzed period was less than 1%. However, it is worth noting the gradual increase in the share of exports in production: ...
...

3.3. Segmentation of fresh fish production by region

3.3.1. Production by Union Territories

The distribution of fresh fish production by districts corresponds to the geographical location of the main fishing zones. According to the Federal Agency for Fishery, ocean fishing prevails in India, the main area for catching water in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the same time, the volume of production in the Pacific basin exceeded production in the waters of the Atlantic by ... times in 2019 and ... in January-September 2020. Accordingly, the Far Eastern Union Territories leads in the production of fresh fish.

Table 4. Dynamics of fresh fish production in India by union territories, tons

3.3.2. Production by states of India

91% of India's fresh fish production comes from 10 states. The largest fresh fish producing states in India are...

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of fresh fish

4.1. Volume and dynamics of fresh fish imports

The volume of fresh fish imports to India in 2019 amounted to 33,8 thousand tons, having decreased by ...% compared to 2018. Relative to the results of 2015, the volume of imports of fresh fish in physical terms increased by ...%.

Diagram 14. The volume and dynamics of imports of fresh fish in physical terms, 2015-2020

In value (dollar) terms, the dynamics of imports of fresh fish is generally similar to the dynamics of imports in physical terms. Differences in growth rates are due to fluctuations in prices for fresh fish in foreign markets.
...

4.2. Import structure

In the structure of fresh fish imports by importing countries in 2019, the Faroe Islands are the key supplier, accounting for more than half of all fresh fish imports ...

4.3. Volume and dynamics of fresh fish exports

The volume of exports for the analyzed period is given taking into account the data of Form No. 8-VES-fish, which takes into account fish, fish products and seafood caught (harvested) and sold outside the customs control area.

The volume of exports of fresh fish in the analyzed period as a whole showed a positive trend, with the exception of a decrease in 2017.
...
4.4. Export structure

Nearly seventy-five percent of the value of Indian fresh fish exports come from four recipient countries: ...

Part 5. Fresh fish consumption analysis

5.1. Dynamics of fresh fish consumption volume

According to GidMarket, in 2019 the volume of consumption of fresh fish in monetary terms (in ruble terms, in retail prices) amounted to ... billion Rs., having increased by ...% compared to 2018 due to an increase in consumer prices by ... %. Over a five-year period, the volume of consumption of fresh fish in monetary terms increased almost 2 times, the main factor in the growth in consumption in value terms was the consumer price growth factor, the factor in the growth in consumption in physical terms in the analyzed period was secondary.

Diagram 20. Dynamics of fresh fish consumption in monetary terms, 2015 - 2019

There are no official data on fresh fish consumption in India.
...

Market experts believe that the data on the average per capita consumption of fish are greatly overestimated, as they are calculated on the basis of a balance formed in live weight, i.e. with giblets.

5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

In 2020, more than forty tenders were announced for the purchase of fresh fish in the amount of ... Rs. up to ... million Rs. The list of purchased products includes both wild marine or freshwater fish and commercial aquaculture.

The main buyers of fresh fish are pre-school, school and secondary vocational education institutions, healthcare institutions, social organizations and hotels.
...

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories

As noted earlier, the Indian market offers a wide variety of fresh fish, which vary in price depending on the species, region and method of production.
...

6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

According to Guide Market, the average consumer price for fresh fish is ... Rs./kg. In the context of the states of India, the highest consumer prices in the Irkutsk region ...
...

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

Negative factors of the investment climate in the fresh fish market dominate over the positive ones. A comprehensive assessment of the factors of investment attractiveness is ""minus"" 2,05 points - an unfavorable investment climate.

The most significant positive factors.
...

The most significant negative factors.

Part 8. Forecast for the development of the fresh fish market until 2024

We will analyze the market based on methods based on identifying trends over time, adjusted for expert opinion in the industry.

When making a forecast for the fresh fish market, it is necessary to take into account the development trends in global fish production in general, the Indian fishery and the impact of the economic crisis provoked by the coronovirus pandemic.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the imposition of wide-ranging lockdowns around the world to curb the spread of the corona virus has impacted global fish production, interrupting supply chains and impacting demand due to lower consumer spending. FAO notes a change in consumer preferences towards frozen processed products and the rejection of fresh fish.
...

In the medium term, the development of fisheries in India will be positively influenced by the following factors: ...
...

According to some experts, the global and Indian economies will recover, thanks to vaccination programs and increased business activity. Analysts at the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank expect economic growth to accelerate as early as 1H 2021, but output and employment will reach pre-crisis levels only by early 2022.
...

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions

At the end of 2019, the volume of the fresh fish market amounted to ... thousand tons, ...
...

Diagrams

Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the fresh fish market in 2015-2019, %
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the volume of the fresh fish market, 2015 - 2019
Diagram 3. Revenue (net) from the sale of fresh fish in the union territories for 2015 - 2019, %
Diagram 4. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2014-2020, % to the previous year
Diagram 5. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, 2014–2020, % of the previous period
Chart 6. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2015-2020, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 7. Dynamics of real money income of the population of India, 2014 - 2020
Chart 8. Population change in India, 2010-2020
Chart 9. Shares of the largest competitors in the fresh fish market in 2019
Diagram 10. Dynamics of fresh fish production in India for 2015 - 2019, January-November 2020
Diagram 11. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest producers (TOP-5) of fresh fish in India, 2015-2019
Chart 12. Share of exports in production, 2015–2019
Diagram 13. Fresh fish production structure by states of India in 2019, %
Diagram 14. The volume and dynamics of imports of fresh fish in physical terms, 2015-2020
Diagram 15. Volume and dynamics of imports of fresh fish in monetary terms 2015-2020
Diagram 16. Dynamics of fresh fish exports in physical terms 2015-2019, January-October 2020
Chart 17. Fresh fish export dynamics in monetary terms 2015-2019, January-October 2020
Diagram 18. Balance of exports and imports
Chart 19. Structure of exports by country in 2019
Diagram 20. Dynamics of fresh fish consumption in monetary terms, 2015 - 2019
Diagram 21. Forecast of market size in 2020 - 2025

Tables

Table 1. STEP analysis of factors affecting the fresh fish market
Table 2. Main companies participating in the fresh fish market in 2019
Table 3. Profiles of companies participating in the fresh fish market in 2019
Table 4. Dynamics of fresh fish production in India by union territories, tons
Table 5. Fresh fish import structure by importing countries in 2019
Table 6. Data on completed tenders for the purchase of fresh fish announced in 2020
Table 7. Average producer prices in the fresh fish market by Union Territories
Table 8. Average consumer prices in the fresh fish market by state of India
Table 9. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the fresh fish market
Table 10. Forecast indicators for the basic and pessimistic scenarios for the development of the crisis, %

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