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Market analysis of fish preserves in India

Release date 25.02.2021

Number of pages 45

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The relevance of research

Fish preserves - fish products made from salted fish, aquatic invertebrates, aquatic mammals and algae in a natural or cut form, with or without the addition of food additives, garnishes, sauces, fillings and other food ingredients, whether or not subjected to heat treatment, in tightly closed consumer containers, packaging, stored under special temperature conditions, having a limited shelf life, ready for use

Purpose of the study

Analysis of the state of the fish preserves market, assessment of the market volume, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the market of fish preserves

Content

Part 1. Overview of the Indian Fish Preserves Market

1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Dynamics of the market volume of fish preserves 2015-2019 Potential market capacity
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.4. Life cycle stage of the market of fish preserves
1.5. Competition from substitute products

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the market of fish preserves

2.1. Major players in the market
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
2.3. Profiles of major players

Part 3. Analysis of the production of fish preserves

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of fish preserves
3.2. Share of exports in the production of fish preserves
3.3. Segmentation of the production of fish preserves by region
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
3.3.2. Production by states of India

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of fish preserves

4.1. Volume and dynamics of imports of fish preserves
4.2. Import structure
4.3. Volume and dynamics of export of fish preserves
4.4. Export structure

Part 5. Analysis of the consumption of fish preserves

5.1. Dynamics of the volume of consumption of fish preserves
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

Part 8. Forecast for the development of the fish preserves market until 2024

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions

Research excerpt

Part 1. Overview of the Indian Fish Preserves Market

1.1. Main characteristics of the market
Fish preserves - fish products made from salted fish, aquatic invertebrates, aquatic mammals and algae in natural or cut form, the content of which is not less than 55% of the net weight, with or without the addition of food additives, garnishes, sauces, fillings and others food ingredients, subjected to heat treatment or not subjected to it, in tightly closed consumer containers, packaging stored under special temperature conditions, having a limited shelf life, net weight of not more than 5 kilograms, ready for use.

The raw materials for preserves are various commercial fish - herring, anchovy, mackerel, horse mackerel, salmon. The most popular preserves are Atlantic and Pacific herring, capelin, sprat and ivasi. For production, both raw fish and chilled, as well as frozen, are used. The range of fish preserves is very wide, they are produced with fish as a whole, cut into fillets, fillets-pieces and carcasses.
The Indian market for fish preserves has a pronounced seasonality. It is in greatest demand in the autumn-winter period, and in the summer there is a traditional decline.

Diagram 1. Monthly dynamics of the production of fish preserves in India, 2018-2020 (8 months), mln cond. cans

It should be noted that the market of fish preserves almost entirely consists of domestic products.

1.2. Dynamics of the market volume of fish preserves 2015-2019 Potential market capacity

The volume of the fish preserves market in monetary terms during 2015-2019 either grew or contracted.

Diagram 3. Dynamics of the volume of the market of fish preserves in 2015 - 2019, million Rs.

In real terms, in 2019, the volume of the market of fish preserves in India amounted to ... tons, which is ...% higher than in 2018.
...

In the structure of industry-wide revenue by federal districts, the largest share in 2019 fell on the North-Western Union Territories ...

1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market

Let's consider the main factors influencing the market and, accordingly, demand.

Social (demographic)

During 2012-2018 India's population is on the rise. The increase in the population in 2015 was not only due to migration and natural increase, but also due to the formation of two new states of the Federation - the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.
...

According to the forecast for the period up to 2024, the population will increase only if the high version of the forecast is followed, however, in light of the developing economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, this version of the forecast is unlikely to materialize.

General trends in macroeconomic indicators can also be traced in such a value as real incomes of the population, which determine the level of effective demand.
...

Diagram 7. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2015-2020 (H )

Economic

GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services (that is, intended for direct consumption) produced per year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation, regardless of the nationality of the factors of production used. It is the main, most complete official indicator of public welfare. The absolute and relative values of GDP give an idea of the general material well-being of the nation and the dynamics of its growth / decrease, since the higher the level of production, the higher the welfare of the country.
...

The index of physical volume of GDP in the II quarter of 2020 relative to the corresponding period of 2019, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to ...%.
...

Let's take a look at some experts' assessments:
...

Thus, experts disagree significantly about the real dynamics of India's GDP in 2020.
...

The industrial production index shows the total volume of all industrial production, utilities, etc. in terms of money.
...

inflation rate. Inflation in 2019 (...%) took the second place in the entire history of observations - it was lower only in 2017 - ...% (against the backdrop of a record harvest).

technological

The technology for the production of fish preserves is quite simple and does not require complex technological equipment.

Previously, the whole fish was salted (with head, tail, entrails), and when it was salted, they cut it up and closed it in jars. It was almost impossible to get rid of small bones with this method. Today, the vast majority of preserves are made not from freshly caught fish, but from ready-made frozen fillets. Fillet is brought to India mainly from Norway. The finished fillet is thawed and salted. But there is one problem - maturation in herring occurs due to enzymes that are in the entrails. And in the chopped frozen fillet, only muscle enzymes remain, which are not so active. In this case, there are two ways: the fish should lie in brine for a long time or you need to activate the work of muscle enzymes so that the product ripens faster. Most manufacturers choose the second method and use ripening accelerators.

Ingredients that accelerate the maturation of fish can be of animal and artificial origin. But most often the process is accelerated by food acids - food additive E575 (glucono-delta-lactone), pyrophosphates, citric, lactic, malic acids and their salts. They act on the muscle tissue of fish, activate enzymes, and the maturation process takes place in a matter of days. And it is thanks to the acids that the bones in the fish become soft. However, this method of salting has a downside. To cope with bones and ensure quick readiness of products, manufacturers often overdo it with acids. In addition, the ""ripening mechanism"" launched by the accelerators does not stop when the fish is ready. It works all the time. That is why instead of elastic herring in the package, by the end of the shelf life, a porridge-like mass is obtained.

The shelf life of the finished product is quite short, 3-4 months.

Technology development. Specialists of the Pacific branch of VNIRO (TINRO) have tested a new technology in the production of preserves from sardine-Ivasi. According to scientists, thanks to a couple of nutritional supplements, the shelf life of products can increase by 30-50%. In 2019, specialists carried out experimental work on the application of a new technology in the production of special salted sardine preserves. Sodium lactate and calcium lactate were used. It has been established that due to their inclusion during salting, oxidative processes are inhibited - free fatty acids are formed more slowly.

Political

The tense political situation in interstate relations has a negative impact on all spheres of the Indian economy. The main activities of the state and the strategic tasks at present are the development of new models of cooperation with the US and the EU and the approval of India in the world monetary system. Anti-India sanctions, in general, a sharp deterioration in relations between Western countries and India, largely determine India's foreign policy.

From September 1, the transitional provisions of the EAEU technical regulation “On the safety of fish and fish products” ceased to operate in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. This technical regulation establishes requirements for fish food products put into circulation on the territory of the Union, as well as for the processes of production, storage, transportation, sale and disposal, for the labeling and packaging of such products to ensure their free movement. The document entered into force on September 1, 2017, but the transitional provisions were in effect for another two years.

Now all fish food products - fish, aquatic mammals and invertebrates, algae and other aquatic plants - are put into circulation exclusively with documents on the assessment of compliance with the requirements of the technical regulations. And not as before - with documents on assessing compliance with requirements, including national legislation, the Eurasian Economic Commission noted.
...

Industry standardization. The production of fish preserves is regulated by:
GOST 3945-78 Fish preserves. Spicy salted fish. Specifications (with Amendments N 1-9). This standard applies to preserves prepared from whole fish of the following types: Caspian, Baltic and North Sea sprat; herring; anchovy; tyulki; anchovy; Atlantic, Pacific small, Pacific small (lake), White Sea, Azov-Black Sea (small and medium), tugun and round herring; oily capelin; lake and pond peled and whitefish; sprat of the Black Sea; saury; vendace and ripus, as well as decapitated oily capelin and herring.

GOST 20056-2013 Special salted ocean fish preserves. Specifications. This standard applies to special salted preserves made from ocean fish - Atlantic sardine, sardinella, sardinops, Atlantic, Far Eastern and Kuril mackerel and ocean horse mackerel.

Thus, systematic and effective work in the field of standardization is being carried out in the industry. But the majority of fish preserves, despite the existence of GOSTs, are produced in accordance with the specifications developed by the manufacturers.

Import substitution policy. Import substitution is today the driving force behind India's technological progress. The depreciation of the rupee, the decline in real incomes of the population and the Indian embargo on the import of Western products contributed to this process. Some domestic food companies not only did not reduce production, but also began to export products.

Credit policy. Today it is quite difficult to imagine the progressive development of the economy without the active participation of the credit system. It should also be noted that the assessment of the availability of credit resources for both legal entities and individuals is a significant indicator that allows assessing not only the demand for credit funds, but can also serve as a reflection of the real economic situation both in the region and in the economy as a whole.
...

Political factors (the introduction of the technical regulations of the EAEU, industry standardization, import substitution policy and credit policy) have a positive impact, as well as a number of technological factors: the development of technologies and simple production technology.

Table 3. STEP analysis of factors influencing the market of fish preserves

1.4. Life cycle stage of the market of fish preserves

In terms of life cycle, the market for fish preserves is in a late growth stage, which may soon move into a mature stage.
This is evidenced by:
growth in consumption in monetary terms per capita;
growth in market volume in monetary terms (excluding 2017);
development of a culture of consumption;
development of high quality domestic supply;
The growth potential of the market remains quite high.
...

In the growth stage, competition intensifies and the number of players increases greatly, as the growing market segment attracts new players looking to make quick profits. At the same time, competitors enter the market with improved, more competitive products. Strong major players are the first to enter the market, able to switch current consumers to themselves and capture the formed market share due to high investment opportunities.

Pricing is becoming one of the ways to compete. As a result of increased competition, cheaper analogue products or more affordable product variations appear - all this leads to lower prices, to large discounts and price promotions.

The main task of marketing at this stage is its maximum extension, which is achieved by using all sources of growth and building entry barriers for new players.

1.5. Competition from substitute products

The results of studies conducted by specialists from the Institute of Agricultural Marketing indicate that fish and seafood in India today still remain less in demand among consumers compared to meat products, which is associated with a deterioration in the overall economic situation in the country, an increase in prices for the main types of food products, increased inflationary processes, etc. The average per capita consumption of fish and fish products by Indians was uneven in different years, but the general trend of fish consumption - two times less than the volume of meat consumption - remains, while generally exceeding the consumption of poultry meat.

Salted fish or in brine is a direct substitute product for fish preserves.
...

Despite the growth in the production of fish preserves and a slight decrease in the production of substitute products, the market under study is strongly influenced by substitute products. The consumer's choice of a particular product depends on the traditional components of product use and pricing.

To reduce the negative impact on the part of substitute goods, market operators can be recommended more active marketing communications of a reminiscent, inciting nature and the organization of the production of substitute goods in parallel with the main production.

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the market of fish preserves

2.1. Major players in the market

Currently, about 1500 companies, both large holdings and small organizations and individual entrepreneurs, are engaged in the production of fish preserves in India.
The main players in the researched products market are ...
...

2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
According to the data for 2019, the main player is TD ""..."", occupying ...% of the market. In second place is JSC ""...""...

2.3. Profiles of major players
TD ""XXX""
...
JSC ""XXX""
...
JSC ""XXX""
...
LLC ""TD ""XXX""
...

Part 3. Analysis of the production of fish preserves

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of fish preserves

Since 2015, the volume of fish preserves production in India has grown by ...% and in 2019 amounted to ... mln cond. cans.

Diagram 14. Dynamics of production volumes of fish preserves in India for 2015 - 2020 (8 months), mln cond. cans

Estimating the total revenue of the market leaders is complicated by the fact that market operators provide data on revenue volumes for the company as a whole, without a breakdown by industry. However, the general dynamics can be traced.
As a consequence of the above-described feature of providing data on revenue, the revenue structure allows us to evaluate only competitive dynamics.

3.2. Share of exports in the production of fish preserves

According to the results of the analysis, it was revealed that fish preserves in India are produced mainly for domestic consumption. For the period 2015-2019 the share of exports in the production of fish preserves was negligible and was within ...%.
...

3.3. Segmentation of the production of fish preserves by region

3.3.1. Production by Union Territories

Since 2018, the largest share in the production of fish preserves has been steadily occupied by the North-Western Union Territories, whose share at the end of 2019 amounted to ...%.

Table 7. Dynamics of the production of fish preserves in India by Union Territories, ths. cans

3.3.2. Production by states of India

The leader in the production of fish preserves is the city, which accounted for ...% of production in 2019, and ...% a year earlier. The shares of other states are much lower.
...

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of fish preserves

4.1. Volume and dynamics of imports of fish preserves

Import in the market of fish preserves, as noted earlier, occupies a small share.
...

4.2. Import structure

In 2019, fish preserves were imported to the Indian market from only two countries: Estonia and Italy.
...

4.3. Volume and dynamics of export of fish preserves

The volume of exports of fish preserves from India in monetary terms in 2015-2018 showing a positive trend...

Diagram 21. Volume and dynamics of export of fish preserves in monetary terms, 2015-2019, thousand dollars

The dynamics of the export of fish preserves from India in physical terms throughout the study period was positive.
...

The balance of exports and imports in the market of fish preserves is positive (the excess of exports over imports) throughout the analyzed period. Thus, the volume of fish preserves imported from abroad is less than that exported from India.

The positive balance of foreign trade testifies to the high demand for these Indian-made products in global markets.

4.4. Export structure
...

Part 5. Analysis of the consumption of fish preserves

5.1. Dynamics of the volume of consumption of fish preserves

During 2015-2019 The dynamics of consumption of fish preserves in physical terms was both positive and negative.

5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

Since the beginning of 2020, only 5 tenders have been announced, in which there is a purchase of fish preserves, worth from ... thousand Rs. up to ... million Rs. Most purchases involve the supply of the investigated products in the same batch with other products, and ...% - only fish preserves. Note that all announced tenders are commercial.
...

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories

The average producer price for fish preserves in India in 2019 was ...ths. Rs./thous. conv. cans...
...

6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

Average consumer prices for fish preserves in India 2015-2019 grew.

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

Negative factors of the investment climate in the fish preserves market dominate over the positive ones. A comprehensive assessment of investment attractiveness factors is “minus” 0,45 points - a neutral investment climate.

The most significant positive factors
...

The most significant negative factors include the following:

Part 8. Forecast for the development of the fish preserves market until 2024

We will analyze the market based on methods based on identifying trends over time, adjusted for expert opinion in the industry.
...

Market operators note that in a pandemic, consumer habits have begun to change. There is a redistribution of purchases from premium segment products to simpler, understandable and affordable categories.

Based on the forecast indicators for the development of the Indian economy and based on the analysis of retrospective data, GidMarket analysts made a forecast for the development of the market within one and two quarantines.

As part of the scenario of one quarantine, GidMarket analysts predict ...

Within the framework of two quarantines, GidMarket analysts predict ...
...

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions

The volume of the fish preserves market in monetary terms during 2015-2019 either grew or contracted.
...

The Indian market for fish preserves has a pronounced seasonality. It is in greatest demand in the autumn-winter period, and in the summer there is a traditional decline.
...

The modern consumer has increasingly begun to think about their own health and proper nutrition, therefore, one of the key positions in the advertising campaign on the market of fish preserves today should be the promotion of healthy, proper and balanced nutrition, where one of the main components will be the consumption of this product. . Also, for a profitable advertising campaign, it is necessary to study effective methods of influencing public opinion and public consciousness. A fashionable trend and one of the most effective today is an unobtrusive appeal to family values.

Diagrams

Diagram 1. Monthly dynamics of the production of fish preserves in India, 2018-2020 (8 months), million conventional cans
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market of fish preserves, %
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the volume of the market of fish preserves in 2015 - 2019, million Rs.
Diagram 4. Revenue (net) from the sale of fish preserves by union territories for 2017-2019, %
Diagram 5. Dynamics of the population of India, as of January 1, 2012-2020, million people, thousand people
Diagram 6. Population forecast in India for the period 2021-2024, million people
Diagram 7. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2015-2020 (H )
Diagram 8. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2015-2019, Q1 2020, % to the previous year, trillion Rs.
Chart 9. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2015-2020 (Jan-Sep) Rs. for 1 US dollar
Chart 10. Dynamics of the inflation rate in India, 2015-2020 (6 months), %
Diagram 11. Dynamics of the average interest rate on loans, 2015-2019, %
Figure 12. Life cycle stage of the market for fish preserves
Diagram 13. Shares of the largest competitors in the market of fish preserves in 2019, %
Diagram 14. Dynamics of production volumes of fish preserves in India for 2015 - 2020 (8 months), mln cond. cans
Diagram 15. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest producers (TOP-5) of fish preserves in India, 2015-2019, million Rs.
Diagram 16. The share of exports in the production of fish preserves for 2015 - 2019,%
Chart 17. Production of fish preserves by states of India, 2019, %
Diagram 18. Volume and dynamics of imports of fish preserves in physical terms, 2015-2019, tons
Diagram 19. Volume and dynamics of imports of fish preserves in monetary terms, 2015-2019, thousand dollars
Chart 20. Structure of imports of fish preserves by country, 2019
Diagram 21. The volume and dynamics of exports of fish preserves in monetary terms, 2015-2019, thousand dollars
Diagram 22. The volume and dynamics of exports of fish preserves in physical terms, 2015-2019, tons
Diagram 23. Balance of exports and imports, thousand tons
Chart 24. Structure of exports of fish preserves by country, 2019
Diagram 25. Dynamics of consumption of fish preserves in physical terms, 2015-2019, t.
Diagram 26. Forecast of the volume of the fish preserves market in 2020 - 2024 – in case of a single quarantine scenario
Diagram 27. Forecast of the volume of the fish preserves market in 2020 - 2024 – in the scenario of two quarantines

Tables

Table 1. Industrial production index by state of India (in % of the previous year), 2015 - 2019
Table 2. Weighted average interest rates of credit institutions on credit operations in rupees, excluding PJSC Sberbank (% per annum), 2015-2019
Table 3. STEP analysis of factors influencing the market of fish preserves
Table 4. Production of main substitute products for fish preserves, thousand tons
Table 5. Main companies participating in the market of fish preserves in 2019
Table 6. Profiles of companies participating in the fish preserves market in 2019
Table 7. Dynamics of the production of fish preserves in India by Union Territories, ths. cans
Table 8. Data on tenders for the purchase of fish preserves announced in 2020
Table 9. Average producer prices in the market of fish preserves in the Union Territories, Rs./thous. conv. cans
Table 10. Average consumer prices for fish preserves in India, 2015-2019, Rs./can
Table 11. Factors of investment attractiveness of the market of fish preserves

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