Macroeconomic indicators for the period 2016 - 2018 in India. Forecast until 2021

The relevance of research

The analysis of macroeconomic indicators is necessary for economists and managers. An assessment of the general economic situation, a forecast of the most important macroeconomic indicators is required when making many managerial decisions.

Purpose of the study

Analysis of the state and dynamics of macroeconomic indicators in India

Content

Part 1. Overview of macroeconomic indicators

1.1. Consumer price index by categories (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021):
1.1.1. Fuel
1.1.2. Products
1.1.3. Clothes
1.1.4. Pharmacy and medical services
1.1.5. Electronic and household goods
1.1.6. Tourism
1.1.7. Transport services
1.1.8. Housing and communal services
1.1.9. Cafes and restaurants
1.1.10. Entertainment services
1.2. Real Wage Growth Rate (2016-2018, forecast to 2021, by Indian Union Territories and by State)
1.3. Nominal wage growth rates (2016-2018, forecast up to 2021)
1.4. Average wages by Union Territories (2016-2018, forecast until 2021, by Union Territories)
1.5. Tax and social rates (2016-2018, forecast until 2021)
1.6. Unemployment rate (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021)
1.7. Fertility rate (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021)
1.8. Total population of India
1.9. The share of pensioners in the total population of India (million people /%, 2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021):
1.9.1. of which military pensioners (million people/%)
1.10. Share of disabled population (2016-2018, forecast until 2021)
1.11. Share of recipients of social benefits (by categories) (2016-2018, forecast until 2021) 
1.12. The ratio of the loan burden to the monthly salary for the union territories (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021)
1.13. Dollar exchange rate (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021)

Research excerpt
Part 1. Overview of macroeconomic indicators
1.1. Consumer price index by categories (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021):
1.1.1. Fuel
The increase in fuel prices provokes … because … Over the past 10 years, and especially in 2018, … 
...
Diagram 1. Consumer price index for fuel on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %

Dynamics of change in CPI for fuel ... The most dramatic changes ... A faster increase in gasoline prices began in ... the year after ... The forecast for 2019-2021 is based on ...
For example, in a company... 
According to representatives of … According to the forecast, as a result, retail gasoline prices in India will increase at least …, which implies an annual increase of about …%.
Also, the dynamics of gasoline prices is influenced by ... According to ..., this year it can grow by ...%, which will affect the pricing of ...
...
 The government plans to take the following steps: ...
Experts say such actions will lead to...

1.1.2. Products
Table 2. Consumer price index for products on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %

In 2018 (and in all recent years), prices have increased by ... The range of products in it has not changed since 2013, and the cost ... The main components of the basket are ...
The rise in price of grain and flour. In 2018…
The rise in prices for chicken meat began with ... Among the reasons - ... Also continue to rise in price ...
Experts attribute to the reasons for the increase in meat prices ...
One of the important reasons for the increase in prices for dairy products…
The increase in food prices is also due to the current…
In general, it is predicted ... First of all, this is due to the significant ...
...
The price growth forecast for foodstuffs developed in … is enough … According to the forecast …, milk, sugar, pork, bakery products and eggs will rise in price by …%, taking into account the fact that VAT is applied to these products … At the same time, experts … explain rise in prices on ... the influence of an increase in ...

1.1.3. Clothes
...
The saturation of the textile and footwear market in India provides … On the other hand, active ... This is how events unfolded in the period from 2013 to 2015. Recovery of activity ... According to forecasts for 2019-2022, the industry will show ...
The question of purchasing another thing ... In the year 2019 is expected ...
According to some experts, consumer prices may increase by more than …%, depending on …

1.1.4. Pharmacy and medical services
...
Many ... claim that the new year is coming ... It is due to ... Indian medicines ... Expenses of drug manufacturers ...
Some experts note that …%. On … this is due to … In order to prevent such an increase in the cost of goods, it is necessary … In total, the average increase in medicines in the country will be about …%, in some cases reaching …%. …
...
According to ... the government has already ...

1.1.5. Electronic and household goods
...
According to ... in the coming years, we should expect ... First of all, the cost will rise ... They can grow strongly in price ... On average, the cost of imported equipment will rise by at least ...% annually.
...
European manufacturers have told retailers about plans ...
It will also have an impact on what is planned to be introduced in the coming years ...
Other experts say the following: taking into account the statistics for previous years, the Indians ...
Also, the market may have a variant of shifting demand from … The determining factor here will be …
According to … prices in the market usually … 

1.1.6. Tourism
...
In general, services in the field of foreign tourism are growing in price ... than services ... This is due to the additional ...
Due to rising prices in the main mass outbound market – …
Based on the results of the 2019 season, leading tour operators expect …
Under these conditions, more and more Indians choose ... 
In general, the dynamics of prices in the tourism sector will initially be determined by …

1.1.7. Transport services
...
One of the main factors affecting the cost of transport services is the dynamics of ... According to some experts, in 2019, compared to the beginning of 2018, the actual cost growth of …%, these estimates are …
At the same time, small transport companies ...
...
All these factors together will cause ... At the same time, ...

1.1.8. Housing and communal services
...
Utility payments are also waiting ... From 01.01.2019/ / , housing and communal services tariffs ... There was also a significant rise in price ..
A separate impact on ... housing and communal services tariffs, and in particular garbage disposal will have ...
...
According to the results of …, visiting restaurants and cafes is among Indians on …
However, during the crisis,...
In 2017-2018, the price growth rate is …% per year, but based on …
According to experts, the level of rise in the price of food in cafes and restaurants for Indians depends on … 
1.1.10. Entertainment services
...
The dynamics of the cost of tickets for entertainment events is mainly due to ... In 2016-2016, consumer prices for tickets for various events and in general for the services of cultural organizations …
In general, ticket prices in the crisis year 2016 …
The forecast for the coming years assumes…

1.2. Real Wage Growth Rate (2016-2018, forecast to 2021, by Indian Union Territories and by State)
...
The dynamics of the rate of change in real wages in India is … For example, in 2018, the average rate in India was …%, the lowest was observed in …
The forecast for 2019-2021 on the growth rate of real wages is based on …, forecast levels …, average rates …
The highest growth rates will be observed in …Union Territories and …Union Territories (more than …% in 2021), the lowest - in …Union Territories and …Union Territories (about …% in 2021). Among the states of India in 2021, the highest rates are predicted for …

1.3. Nominal wage growth rates (2016-2018, forecast up to 2021)
Diagram 6. Size and growth rates of average monthly nominal accrued wages
 
employees in a full range of organizations in the whole of the Indian economy in 2016-2021. (forecast), Rs., %
In general, the dynamics of changes in nominal wages can be considered ... - an indicator ... However, according to this indicator, one can undoubtedly see ... The average growth rate from 2010 to 2013 was more than ...%, already by the end of 2014 ... The lowest indicator was observed in … year – … Pre-crisis growth rates – more than …% – were recorded …
The forecast levels of growth in nominal wages will be …, …, but the average value is … 

1.4. Average wages by Union Territories (2016-2018, forecast until 2021, by Union Territories)
...
Traditionally, in terms of accrued salaries, the leaders are ... Union Territories and ... Union Territories, according to the results of 2018, the average annual salaries here exceeded ... rupees. The lowest level of wages was traditionally observed in … the Union Territories. In 2018, it didn't even reach … Rs. 
GidMarket's forecast for the Union Territories is based on …
It is likely that ... the Union Territories will become the leader in terms of wages, the difference with ... the Union Territories ...

1.5. Tax and social rates (2016-2018, forecast until 2021)
Table 10. Tax and Social Rates in India 2016-2021

Changes in 2019
...

1.6. Unemployment rate (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021)
...
Since 2000, it has been steadily observed ... The average value for 2011-2015 was …%, and in 2016-2018 – …%.
At the end of 2018, the unemployment rate is …%. In 2017, the economy ... Experts ... predicted ... Officially, the current unemployment rate in India is ...
The level of unemployment in …% is recognized as normal for the modern economy. …
Despite the fact that according to the results of January-May 2019, the average unemployment rate amounted to about …%, according to …, a significant number is still … When preparing the forecast …
...
If by the end of this year layoffs …, then the unemployment rate … In general, in terms of …

1.7. Fertility rate (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021)
...
The number of children per 1 woman … Since 2016, the indicator has started …
Judging by the birth rate data for January-April 2019, per 1000 of the population born in 2019 by …% … than for the same period in 2018, which allows predicting …%. The birth rate in subsequent years will depend on ...
One of the priority tasks facing the state in recent years is ... Measures of state support in the near future are:
...
The program includes…
There are also a number of ideas that are ...

1.8. Total population of India
Chart 6 shows the dynamics of India's population. 
During 2010-2018, there is ... However, at the beginning of 2018, the population growth rate was …% compared to the previous year 2017, in 2019 …
...

1.9. The share of pensioners in the total population of India (million people /%, 2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021):
...
Until 2019 inclusive, the number of pensioners receiving various types of pensions in India ... The average growth rate was …% per year ... The reform providing for … will reduce … in the coming years

1.9.1. of which military pensioners (million people/%)
Diagram 10. Dynamics of the number of pensioners receiving a seniority pension in 2016-2021 (forecast), thousand people

The dynamics of the number of pensioners receiving a pension ... - an indicator ... The average growth rate for 2017-2019 amounted to ...%, in general for the period the number of ... At the beginning of 2021, the number of pensioners receiving a retirement pension, ... people. During the period under review, the share of the number of such pensioners in India in the total number of pensioners …% in 2016 to …% at the beginning of 2019. At the beginning of 2021, the indicator may reach the value of …% due to …

1.10. Share of disabled population (2016-2018, forecast until 2021) 
...
Over the past 10 years, there has been … At the beginning of 2018, there were … million people over working age living in India, while the share of ... According to actual data at the beginning of 2019, the total population of India amounted to … thousand people, which is only by … % … of the average variant of the forecast for 2019, this suggests that ...
Chart 12. Dynamics of the number and share of the population under working age in the total population of India in 2016-2021 (forecast), million people, %

Over the past 10 years, there has been…
Thus, by combining data on persons older and younger than working age, we conclude that ...
...

1.11. Share of recipients of social benefits (by categories) (2016-2018, forecast until 2021)
...
In 2013-2016, the share of the population receiving social payments fluctuated around …%, but since 2017 it has been noticeable ... The following categories of citizens receive the largest shares of social payments: …
Growing shares of the following categories: …
The shares of the following categories are declining: …

1.12. The ratio of the loan burden to the monthly salary for the union territories (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021)
...

1.13. Dollar exchange rate (2016 - 2018, forecast until 2021)
The key factor of pressure on the GDP and many markets (especially those with a large share of imported goods) can be called the deterioration in the price environment in the commodity markets. 
...
In 2015, the change in the dollar exchange rate is … in nature, …
In January of the next 2016, …
In 2017, the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate has … 
In 2018, there is…
In January-June 2019, the average exchange rate amounted to … Rs. 
Chart 14. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2014-2018, Rs. for 1 US dollar

Thus, the weighted average annual exchange rate of the euro in 2013 amounted to … Rs., in 2014 … Rs., in 2015 … The depreciation of the rupee against the dollar and the euro had… But on the other hand, the decrease in the availability of imported products leads to …
...
The Ministry of Economic Development in the next four years ...
According to materials...
The consequences of the impact of a possible reduction ...
According to the … forecast option, in 2019-2021 the average dollar exchange rate will be … rupees, which is … rupees higher than the average forecast rate for the … option.

Diagrams

Diagram 1. Consumer price index for fuel on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Дchart 2. Consumer price index for pharmaceuticals and medical services on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Diagram 3. Consumer price index for transport services on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Diagram 4. Consumer price index for housing and communal services on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Diagram 5. Consumer price index for entertainment services on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Diagram 6. The size and growth rate of the average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees for a full range of organizations in the whole Indian economy in 2016-2021 (forecast), Rs., %
Diagram 7. Unemployment rate in India 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Diagram 8. Total fertility rate (number of children per 1 woman) in 2016-2021, units rev.
Diagram 9. Population dynamics in India, 2010-2019, million people, %
Diagram 10. Dynamics of the number of pensioners receiving a seniority pension in 2016-2021 (forecast), thousand people
Diagram 11. Dynamics of the number and share of the population over working age in the total population of India in 2016-2021 (forecast), million people, %
Diagram 12. Dynamics of the number and share of the population under working age in the total population of India in 2016-2021 (forecast), million people, %
Diagram 13. The share of the disabled population in the total number in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Diagram 14. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2014-2018, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 15. Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019-2021, Rs. for 1 US dollar

Tables 

Table 1. Consumer price index for fuel on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Table 2. Consumer price index for products on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Table 3. Consumer price index for clothes on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Table 4. Consumer price index for electronic and household goods on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Table 5. Consumer price index for tourism on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Table 6. Consumer price index for housing and communal services on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Table 7. Consumer price index for cafes and restaurants on average by years in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Table 8. Growth rate of real average monthly wages of workers by states and Union Territories of India for 2016-2021 (forecast), % to the previous year
Table 9. Average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees in the Union Territories in 2016-2021 (forecast), Rs.
Table 10. Tax and Social Rates in India 2016-2021
Table 11. Changes in the payment of personal income tax
Table 12. Excise rates in 2019-2021
Table 13. Child benefits from January 1, 2019
Table 14. property tax rate
Table 15. Total number of pensioners in India as of January 1, 2016-2021 (forecast), thousand people
Table 16. Shares of categories of the population receiving social transfers in India in 2016-2021 (forecast), %
Table 17. Dynamics of the Debt Burden Index (LBR) in India by Union Territories in 2015-2021 (forecast), %