India Wine Market Forecast
The relevance of research
On the one hand, the wine market in India is not saturated, has high potential, and at the same time has low consumption per person relative to European countries.
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the wine market in India, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the wine market
Content
Chapter 1. Key components of the wine market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Wine Market Growth Rate
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
1.4. Volume and dynamics of wine production
1.5. Wine import. Volume and dynamics
1.6. Export of wine. Volume and dynamics
1.7. Share of exports in production
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Wine market trends
2.2. The main problems of the industry
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
2.7. Stage of the life cycle of the wine market
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
3.2. Social Components
3.3. Technological components
3.4. Political Components
3.5. STEP-analysis of the wine market
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
4.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers in the wine market
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the wine market
5.5. Forecast for the development of the wine market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
6.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Key components of the wine market
1.1. Market size
In this forecast, still and sparkling grape wines are included in the object of analysis. The object of study does not include wine drinks and other wine products.
At the end of 2020, the volume of the wine market in India amounted to … million liters. In the market structure …% falls on still wines and …% on sparkling wines. The value of the market in 2020 amounted to … billion Rs. The wine market belongs to...
1.2. Wine Market Growth Rate
It is necessary to consider the dynamics of the wine market from the point of view of its two components: domestic production and imported products.
For 2013-2020 volume of wine production in India in physical terms …%, while the volume of production of wine products in general (including wine drinks, etc.) for the period 2013-2020. …%. This indicates that domestic producers, against the backdrop of a reduction in effective demand ... During the analyzed period, the requirements for ...
This leads to the fact that the lower price category of wines is gradually moving into …
Entry into force of ... law ..., led to ...
As for imported products, in 2015 the volume of wine imports was …% relative to 2013 and then gradually … yr – only in 2019 the volume of wine imports… Thus, the market growth rate in the period 2013-2020. allow us to state that the wine market is still …
As for the pace of market development in 2020 relative to 2019, unlike many other consumer markets, incl. food markets, … (…% by 2019). Wine belongs to those categories of purchases from which buyers ... In addition, the closure of borders led to ..., which contributed to maintaining ...
In value terms, the Indian wine market for 2013-2020. …%. This is due to … as well as … due to the devaluation of the rupee: if the average annual exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar is … Rs. in 2013 to … Rs. in 2020, the average wine import price is …
In 2020, relative to 2019, the wine market in value terms …%.
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
Diagram 3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the wine market, 2013–2020, %
The structure of natural expression of the wine market is dominated by products of ... production - on average for the period 2013-2020. the share of domestic production in the wine market was …%.
The share of domestic products … in the market during the crisis of 2014-2015. before …%. In 2018-2020 noted …% – competition intensifies …
At the end of 2020, the share of imported products in the wine market amounted to …%.
If we consider the value expression of the wine market in India, then … products with a share of …% dominate here - such differences between the natural and value terms of the market are due to …
1.4. Volume and dynamics of wine production
Despite …, the tightening of requirements … leads to an increase in …
According to ..., wine production in India for 2013-2020. …%, in 2020 compared to 2019, a decrease of …%.
Assessing the dynamics of production in 2020, it is advisable to take into account the entry into force ... It is expected that until June 26, manufacturers have increased ... In 2021, …
In the structure of Indian production …% falls on still wines and …% on sparkling wines.
1.5. Wine import. Volume and dynamics
Wine imports to India … in 2014 and in 2015 (by …% and by …%) against the background of …, since 2016 it started …
Contrary to many other commodity markets, the crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic … – decrease in 2020 …%, the volume of wine imports to India in 2020 … million liters.
In the structure of imports, …% falls on still wines and …% on sparkling wines.
If in value terms in dollar terms the dynamics of imports is …, then in ruble terms the value of wine imports to India is constant ... In ruble terms, the volume of wine imports to India for the period 2013-2020. …, in 2020 relative to 2019 …%.
1.6. Export of wine. Volume and dynamics
For the period 2013-2020 exports of wine from India ... but still its volumes ...
Diagram 7. Volume and dynamics of wine exports in physical terms, 2013–2020, million liters
The growth of export volumes is due to exports to …
In value terms, in ruble terms, export deliveries of wine … and by the end of 2020 amounted to … million Rs.
1.7. Share of exports in production
Despite …, the share of exports in production is …% at the end of 2020.
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Wine market trends
The main wine trends are as follows:
...
2.2. The main problems of the industry
...
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
During 2010-2018, there was an increase in the population. The growth of …% in 2015 compared to the previous year 2014 is due to ... However, at the beginning of 2018, the population growth rate was ... As of January 1, 2021, …%.
...
Consider also such a value as the real incomes of the population, which determine the level of effective demand. The diagram below shows the dynamics of the growth rate of this indicator.
From 2014 to 2017, there is a trend… In 2014, real incomes of the population …%, in 2015 – by …%, and in 2016… But in 2017 we can observe …
According to Rosstat data updated in April 2021, by the end of 2020, the decline in real incomes of the population is …%. According to preliminary information…
...
In this way, …
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
...
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
...
Gross profitability of the wine industry in the period 2015-2020 demonstrates...
Consider the dynamics of profitability before tax.
Diagram 13. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the wine industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
In general, for the period 2015-2018. profitability before tax in the wine industry …% to …%, but in 2019 …%, …
During the period under review, the overall indicator for all sectors of the Indian economy did not fall below ..., which indicates ... In the wine industry, absolute liquidity indicators are significantly ...
Thus, among the considered indicators of the wine industry, most of the financial ratios are ...
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Diagram 15. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions
At the end of 2020, there were … enterprises with non-zero revenue operating in the wine industry. Of these, ... enterprises (with a share of ...% in the total industry revenue) are located in ..., ... enterprises (...% in the total industry revenue) are located in ..., more ... In other regions of India, there are ...
Thus, the concentration of manufacturing companies in the industry is due to ...
2.7. Stage of the life cycle of the wine market
...
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
GDP (gross domestic product) is used to determine the rate of economic development of any state. GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the total value of goods, works and services that were produced and provided in the country in a year. Gross domestic product is the main indicator on the basis of which the level and pace of the country's economic development are determined.
The chart below shows India's GDP growth rate from 2007 to 2020 at comparable prices (at 2016 prices).
The impact of the crisis, which began in 2008, led to a decrease in GDP by …% in 2009, but then the growth rates were ...
Further, until 2014, the growth rate was …, but constantly …, and in 2015 it was … In 2015, which was the peak of the crisis in the state, the decline in GDP was …% compared to the previous directly proportional...
In 2016, GDP stagnated, following the results of 2017, this …
...
The volume index of gross domestic product in 2020 amounted to …% compared to 2019.
...
According to a preliminary estimate of …, the index of the physical volume of gross domestic product in Q2021 2020 relative to the corresponding period in amounted to …%.
...
Currently, the factor of the decline in GDP in 2020 is …
...
3.2. Social Components
...
3.3. Technological components
...
3.4. Political Components
...
3.5. STEP-analysis of the wine market
STEP-analysis of factors allows us to expect … an impact on the development of the wine market in the long term. This will be facilitated... However, the wine industry in India is currently going through a period...
… are much more significant factors influencing the development of the industry. Thus, from the side of macro factors, the market is experiencing ...
Table 6. STEP analysis of factors influencing the wine market
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
Global competition. The Indian wine market is well represented…
National competition is expressed in the amount of ...
Regional and local competition is most pronounced in …
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
Among the largest participants in the wine market, one can single out domestic producers LLC “…”, CJSC “…”, …, as well as a producer from … LLC “…”. Contact details and information on the revenue of these companies (for foreign companies - import volumes) are presented in the table below.
The assessment of the shares of the largest market participants was carried out by GidMarket in value terms based on data on ... According to the results of the assessment, in 2020 the largest competitor in the wine market in India in 2020 is LLC “…” with a share of …%, second place in the competitive environment, it occupies … with a share of …%, the third is OJSC “…” with a share of …%, …
Diagram 21. Shares of the largest competitors in the wine market in 2020, %
4.3. Competition from substitute products
The wine market in India is experiencing strong competition from such a substitute product as ... The share of this product group in the structure of alcoholic beverages is not only significant, but also the volume of this category ... during 2013-2016, ..., then followed by ...% in 2017, further growth ... Production volume ... fell by ...% to ... liters in 2020
With the adoption in 2020 of the law on viticulture and winemaking, …
The second substitute product for wine is …, which in terms of consumption in India significantly exceeds not only … Thus, in 2020, more than … liters of … were produced, incl. ... million liters ... The choice of the type of alcoholic beverage largely depends on ...
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
...
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
...
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers in the wine market
...
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the wine market
...
5.5. Forecast for the development of the wine market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
...
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
Modern statistical forecasting methods are used, taking into account the actual dynamics of the industry and the impact of the current and projected general economic situation in connection with the spread of the covid-19 virus.
In addition, when compiling the forecast, changes in real incomes of the population, trends in consumer preferences in a crisis, development forecasts and the degree of impact of other factors affecting the industry are taken into account.
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
Industry volume over the past 8-9 years
Industry dynamics in 2008-2009, in 2013-2020
Dynamics of macroeconomic indicators over the past 9-10 years
Current public assistance plans
Databases of the State Statistics Committee of India
Indian Revenue Service databases
India Customs databases
Open sources (websites, portals)
Issuer reporting
Company websites
Media Archives
Regional and federal media
Insider sources
Specialized analytical portals
6.3. Timing of forecasting
The forecast belongs to the medium-term category - 5 years (2021-2025)
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the volume of the wine market in real terms, 2013–2020, million liters
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the volume of the wine market in value terms, 2013–2020, billion Rs.
Diagram 3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the wine market, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 4. Dynamics of wine production volumes in India, 2013–2020, million liters
Diagram 5. Volume and dynamics of wine imports in physical terms, 2013–2020, million liters
Diagram 6. Volume and dynamics of wine imports in value terms, 2013–2020, million Rs.
Diagram 7. Volume and dynamics of wine exports in physical terms, 2013–2020, million liters
Diagram 8. Volume and dynamics of wine exports in value terms, 2013–2020, million Rs.
Chart 9. Share of exports in production, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 10. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2012–2021
Chart 11. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2011–2020, Q1 2021, %
Chart 12. Consumption in the wine market per capita, 2013-2020
Diagram 13. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the wine industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
Diagram 14. Current liquidity (total coverage) for the wine industry for 2015–2020, times
Diagram 15. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions
Figure 16. Life cycle stage of the wine market
Diagram 17. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2007-2020, % to the previous year
Chart 18. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2016-2021 (Jan.-July), Rs. for 1 US dollar
Chart 19. Index of physical volume of retail trade turnover in India, 2014-2020, Q1 2021, % to the previous year
Diagram 20. Dynamics of the area of vine plantations in farms of all categories, 2014-2020, thousand ha
Diagram 21. Shares of the largest competitors in the wine market in 2020, %
Diagram 22. Dynamics of production volumes of wine drinks made without the addition of ethyl alcohol in India, 2013-2020, million liters
Diagram 23. Forecast of the wine market volume in 2021–2025, million liters
Tables
Table 1. Gross margin of the wine industry compared to all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, %
Table 2. Absolute liquidity of the wine industry compared to all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, times
Table 3. Forecasts of various sources for real GDP in India in 2021-2023 (data for January-July 2021), %
Table 4. Average annual exchange rate of Euro against Rupee, 2014-2020
Table 5. Urban and rural population in India in 2014-2020 (as of January 1), million people, %
Table 6. STEP analysis of factors influencing the wine market
Table 7. Main companies participating in the wine market in 2020
Table 8. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 9. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
Table 10. Forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy until 2024 (base case)
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