India Printing Market Forecast
The relevance of research
Indian printing industry is one of the most high-tech and fastest growing industries in the country. These are not only state unitary enterprises, but also private printing houses, actively gaining positions in the market of paper and printing products
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the printing market, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the printing market
Content
Chapter 1. Economic characteristics of the printing market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Market Growth Rate
1.3. Market trends
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
1.9. Sales channels
1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine in connection with covid-2019
4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines
4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Economic characteristics of the printing market
1.1. Market size
In 2024, the commercial and packaging printing market was ...
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Indian printing industry is one of the most high-tech and fastest growing industries in the country. These are not only state unitary enterprises, but also private printing houses, actively gaining positions in the market of paper and printing products.
In connection with the elimination of sectoral division in the organization of the country's economy and the introduction of the concept of manufacturing by type of economic activity, it has become the norm to characterize printing production as a market for printing works (services). This refers to a certain economic environment where the states of this market operate - manufacturers of printing works (or printed commercial products of their own production) and customers (consumers) of printed products.
The modern printing industry is not among the priority areas for the development of the country's economy, but retains its importance in the common economic space. It is quite self-sufficient and receives constant support from the state, if not directly, then directly through government measures to support the print media, book publishing and a number of manufacturing industries. The priority development of information and digital technologies today determines the further improvement of printing production.
In recent years, the printing services industry has been influenced by two directions of market development:
instability of the external environment, depreciation of the national currency, decrease in effective demand, increased competition;
new technological trends - the active development of the Internet, the increase in the cost of production and distribution of printed materials, legislative restrictions in the field of advertising, a decrease in the share of foreign capital in advertising.
The printing industry produces publishing, packaging, label and promotional products - it serves all end markets for goods and services.
A characteristic feature of the printing industry in India at present is the division of the market space into technological and commodity sectors and segments focused on a certain contingent of consumers. As a result, this changed the once unified concept of the publishing and printing complex as an industry and designated separate areas for the production of printed products: print media (newspapers and magazines), book publishing, print advertising, packaging, digital printing segment, etc.
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1.2. Market Growth Rate
Consider the dynamics of changes in the volume of the printing services market in India for the period 2014 - 2020.
The main indicator of the efficiency of printing enterprises is the total annual turnover, but it is rather difficult to determine it within the framework of the existing calculation methodology. The relevant data are presented by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) only as part of the summary indicators of the turnover of organizations with the main type of activity: pulp and paper production, publishing and printing activities, and in practice they give an idea only of the activity of the pulp and paper industry as a whole, which is not allows you to isolate the actual printing industry.
The Interregional Association of Printers (MAP), the Union of Enterprises of the Printing Industry GIPP (SPPI), other interested structures, using their experience and resources, are forced to determine the approximate volume of the printing market using various methods.
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Diagram 1. Dynamics of the volume of the printing services market in India, 2014-2020, billion Rs.
1.3. Market trends
At present, in the field of mass media printing, the preservation of the state printing potential is of particular relevance. Information stability, which against the background of the vulnerability of modern means of electronic communications in emergency conditions, provides printing production, has been tested by time. In this regard, attention is paid to the fact that most specialized printing enterprises, still owned by the states of India, have the opportunity to continue functioning in accordance with their production purpose only if the form of ownership is preserved.
If we talk about structural changes in the printing market, we should note the continued reduction in the share of state-owned printing enterprises in the traditional printing sector. Considering the current structure of the printing works market and the main aspects of its formation in the near future, one cannot but take into account the state and prospects for the development of small business in this field of activity.
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The curtailment and re-profiling of printing production at privatized enterprises strengthens the competitive position of private networks affiliated with certain publishing groups in the print media and book production sectors.
Recently, in the field of printing activities, areas related to the manufacture or use of printing and finishing processes in the production of various industrial products have been developed. In accordance with the Classifier of Economic Activities, these are primarily printing services for printing labels and tags, multi-color packaging with the subsequent formation of the final product, printing directly on plastic, glass, metal, wood and ceramics. Among these areas, the most significant place is occupied by the production of label and packaging printed products.
The high concentration of production in the newspaper, magazine and book production sectors continues to be maintained. Despite the presence in each sector of a large number of printing houses, the main production potential in terms of the volume of work performed is a limited number of enterprises, the competitiveness of which is ensured by both technological and scale factors. In the newspaper, magazine and book sectors of the printing market, the gap between the supply of production and the demand for the production of printed products has increased.
Against the backdrop of a decline in production in the print media and book publishing segments, the range and volume of packaging, labels, wallpaper, paper and film printed materials for various industries expanded significantly. A new market segment has been formed - the production of small-circulation personalized printed products for various purposes based on digital printing technologies. In addition to paper and cardboard, new printing materials were mastered: polymer films, plastic, foil, corrugated cardboard, tin, glass and finished industrial products.
Thus, the main trends in the development of the printing works market are distinguished:
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The reduction in the number of business structures in the publishing industry is accompanied by a renewal of the composition of the current market staff. For example, the number of printing houses with online access for customers and consumers of printed products is growing noticeably. Printing industry today has become a completely self-sufficient market structure, and the volume of investment in it has grown significantly.
Widespread self-isolation in 2020 caused a boom in demand for packaged goods, in particular food in cardboard boxes with a print or a label. And the surge in online orders has led to an increase in demand for cardboard packaging. The traditional flat carton sector is now benefiting from a growing focus on sustainability. Printed cardboard is used to replace plastic in some packaging materials, such as plastic shrink wrap for beverage packaging and plastic food trays. The predominant method of printing cardboard boxes is offset sheet. It is followed by gravure and flexographic printing.
1.4. The main problems of the industry
The main issues in the industry include:
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The printing industry in India is currently going through difficult times: paper prices are rising, many print media are going online, there are no serious investors, and there are problems with the modernization of production.
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
In terms of the life cycle stage, the Indian printing market is in a stage of maturity and saturation. This is evidenced by:
Increasing requirements for product quality on the part of the consumer;
Rising retail prices;
Decline in the volume of periodicals and books issuance over a long period of time;
Reduction and enlargement of the total number of market operators.
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As a result of falling demand for some types of printed products, the production strategy of each printing house should be aimed at achieving the fullest possible compliance of its product range with market demands, at assessing the “aging” positions that have entered the decline phase in their composition. Naturally, the implementation of such a strategy in each printing house needs not only constant information “feeding” (about state policy in the field of printing, about the processes taking place in the structure of media consumption, etc.), but also in constant interaction with media organizations.
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At the stage of maturity, the main task of marketing activities is to extend the life cycle of the product and involves:
improvement of the range of services;
deeper market segmentation and entry into new segments;
stimulating existing customers;
conducting competitive advertising campaigns;
search for new consumer groups and encourage them to make a purchase.
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
The dynamics of the volume of consumption of printing services is determined by:
trends in the indicator of real incomes of the population (see section 2.2);
business development trends.
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1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
During 2014-2020 the volume of consumption of printing services per capita was oscillatory.
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1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
Today, the domestic printing industry is an industry that has a high readiness to participate in the implementation of the Digital Economy program. This is confirmed by the analysis of the accelerated development of printing equipment and technologies in previous years, which have experienced the powerful influence of the new digital environment.
From the very beginning, the use of digital printing technology in the domestic printing industry has taken on a large-scale character. It changed the organization of production for the production of many types of traditional printed products, became an incentive for the development of the multicolor printing market. The share of color illustrations and other graphic materials in print publications has significantly increased, and there have been changes in the design of print media.
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The widespread introduction of modern information digital technologies is a priority for the development of printing production. With their development, with the widespread use of the Internet, completely new forms of organizing the production of printed products have arisen: for example, placing orders, preparing an original layout, performing and monitoring print runs, and coordinating current production issues online.
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1.9. Sales channels
Attracting customers to the company is the first thing a new player in the printing services market faces. The service is in demand, and demand creates a lot of offers.
Therefore, despite the prospects of this area, competition in it is very tough. Any business depends on promotion. The content of advertising, the distribution channel, the strength of the impact and, accordingly, the return depend on financial capabilities and experience in promotion.
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1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
More than a third of enterprises are concentrated in the Central Union Territories ...
Diagram 5. Distribution of small printing enterprises across the Union Territories
There have been no cardinal changes in the location of printing enterprises over the past decade in the country.
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Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services (that is, intended for direct consumption) produced per year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation, regardless of the nationality of the factors of production used. It is the main, most complete official indicator of public welfare. The absolute and relative values of GDP give an idea of the general material well-being of the nation and the dynamics of its growth / decrease, since the higher the level of production, the higher the welfare of the country.
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Regarding India, experts predict a difficult and unpredictable period. Firstly, because the entire global economy has entered a recession triggered by the coronavirus. Secondly, there was a drop in world oil prices, which is extremely painful for the Indian economy. As a result, it is highly likely that in the medium term the printing market will also be negatively affected by negative processes in the global and Indian economies. The strength and duration of the impact will depend on: the demand for oil and gas and the level of world prices for them, the duration of the period of low prices, as well as the duration of the coronavirus pandemic in the world and India.
Let's take a look at some experts' assessments:
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Thus, experts disagree significantly about the real dynamics of India's GDP in 2020.
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The industrial production index shows the total volume of all industrial production, utilities, etc. in terms of money.
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Rate of inflation.
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2.2. Social Components
During 2012-2018 India's population is on the rise. The increase in the population in 2015 was not only due to migration and natural increase, but also due to the formation of two new states of the Federation - the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.
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General trends in macroeconomic indicators can also be traced in such a value as real incomes of the population, which determine the level of effective demand.
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Thus, at present, according to the totality of the considered economic and social factors, the following is observed:
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It is impossible not to take into account the continuing decline in demand for periodicals and printed books, due to the development of electronic means of communication.
2.3. Technological components
There are currently several key obstacles to the development of the printing industry:
High dependence on imports: lack of domestic printing equipment that meets modern requirements; lack of domestic coated papers. Coated paper is required by publishers for most magazines.
Annual rise in paper prices;
Depreciation of equipment, lack of capacity in the whole country.
Shortage of personnel, lack of the required number of qualified personnel.
2.4. Political Components
In the process of transition from the industry to the market, the possibility of quantifying the printing potential in the country and the necessary analytical and information support for professional activities in this area were lost.
Much attention is paid to state support for print media and book publishing. Every year, budgetary funds are allocated to directly support periodicals and book publications, to support the implementation of socially significant projects in the field of printed materials.
Credit policy. Today it is quite difficult to imagine the progressive development of the economy without the active participation of the credit system. It should also be noted that the assessment of the availability of credit resources for both legal entities and individuals is a significant indicator that allows assessing not only the demand for credit funds, but can also serve as a reflection of the real economic situation both in the region and in the economy as a whole. Consider the dynamics of average interest rates on loans to legal entities.
Diagram 12. Dynamics of the average interest rate on loans, 2015-2020, %
The Government of India is actively working towards the availability of credit funds.
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The development strategy establishes a mechanism for actions aimed at increasing the guarantee support of states for small and medium-sized businesses and improving business lending conditions, and also defines technologies, target client segments, geographic and industry boundaries, and promising opportunities for the national guarantee system. The positive influence of the factor.
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Let's consider the main factors influencing the market and, accordingly, demand.
In general, the impact of macro factors on the printing services market can be assessed as negative. A group of economic and technological factors has a negative impact, in addition, a group of social factors, as well as the lack of analytical and information support, have a negative impact.
Factors such as improved credit policy and government support have a positive impact.
Table 1. STEP analysis of factors influencing the printing services market
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
The largest geographical segments of the printing services market are the Asia-Pacific region (primarily China, Japan and India), Europe and the USA. Of the European countries, the printing services market is most developed in the UK, Germany, France; India accounts for no more than 1,0% of the world printing market.
However, today the scale of application of printing processes in India is increasing. According to expert estimates, more than 20 thousand states of the market are currently involved in the field of printing. These are traditional industrial enterprises (printing houses), digital and ""hybrid"" printing houses, as well as numerous advertising agencies, print shops, mini-printing houses and specialized printing production within enterprises of other manufacturing industries.
In the first decade of the new millennium, the printing industry underwent structural changes as a result of the division of printing houses into two main groups:
micro and small printing houses, printing production of individual entrepreneurs, who are characterized by organizational flexibility and quick response to market challenges;
medium-sized enterprises and large specialized complexes with excess production potential and fierce price competition in the market.
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In the field of small printing business, the production of not only advertising, calendar and representative printed products on orders of corporate organizations is concentrated, but also the printing of outdoor advertising, interior, design and decorative elements based on large-format digital printers. Printing on fabrics, souvenirs and textile products has become more and more widespread. In addition, the rapid formation of a new production segment in the structure of the printing market is due to the fact that this direction in the development of printing production remains a more profitable business compared to the results of many industrial printing houses.
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
As noted earlier, according to expert estimates, there are currently more than 20 market states in the printing industry in India.
The calculation data of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index in the printing industry show that this market belongs to low-concentration markets (market concentration is low). Mergers and acquisitions are allowed freely.
The market leader in printing services is ...
Estimating the total revenue of the market leaders is complicated by the fact that market operators provide data on revenue volumes for the company as a whole, without a breakdown by industry. However, the general dynamics can be traced.
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Serious changes in the field of printing and mass communications, associated with the increasing use of digital platforms, have a direct impact on the state and development of not only the printing industry, but also its entire production infrastructure (manufacture of paper and cardboard for printing, equipment and printing materials, logistics and service). It should be noted that over the past decade, the printing industry in general and the domestic printing industry, in particular, have undergone radical changes. This is primarily due to the rapid penetration of new digital technologies into the printing industry and the use of new business models.
If in the printing industry the direction of production development is based on technical innovations, then in the publishing sector, the prospects are associated with the formation of a multimedia content transmission system and the processes of replacing printed products with new digital information products.
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Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
In 2020, the Indian economy faced three obstacles at once - falling oil prices, a self-isolation regime and a decrease in demand for Indian exports.
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4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
At the end of March 2020, the government identified 22 sectors that will be the first to receive state support in the context of the economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic: the government commission on improving the sustainability of the Indian economy, chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, approved the list of sectors of the economy most affected by the deteriorating situation in connection with the spread of a new coronavirus infection, to provide priority targeted support.
Based on the results of consultations with the business community, the Ministry of Economic Development of India submitted the following sectors for approval to the Commission: air transportation, airport activities, trucking; culture, organization of leisure and entertainment; physical culture and health-improving activities and sports; activities of travel agencies and other organizations in the field of tourism; hotel business; public catering, organizations of additional education and non-state educational institutions; organizing conferences and exhibitions; activities for the provision of personal services to the population (repair, laundry, dry cleaning, hairdressing and beauty salon services). The list of industries was approved by the Government of India Decree No. 3 dated April 2020, 434. This list has been updated throughout the year.
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The vast majority of the support measures announced by the president and the government concern only the industries that the government has identified as the most affected. That is, benefits apply only to legal entities and individual entrepreneurs whose main activity code (OKVED) specified in the unified state register (EGRLE) is included in the government list of such industries.
Support measures for companies providing printing services are presented in Table 9.
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4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine in connection with covid-2019
In the medium term, the recovery of the world economy will not be quick: after an initial “rebound” to levels below pre-crisis levels, a long period of gradual growth will follow.
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The Indian economy in February-March 2020 was under the powerful influence of two negative factors at once - the rapid spread of the covid-19 coronavirus infection pandemic and its detrimental impact on the global economy, as well as the collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rupiah depreciated significantly against the dollar and the euro.
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The government has prepared a three-stage plan for economic recovery until 2022. A complete lifting of restrictions on businesses is scheduled for the end of 2021.
The government intends to implement the plan by the end of 2021 in three stages:
stage of adaptation. End of Q2 - 3 sq. 2020 At this time, the authorities are obliged to stabilize the situation in the most affected areas and prevent a recession in others. The fall of the economy relative to the 2nd quarter. 2020 must end;
Recovery stage. 4 sq. 2020 - Q2 2021 At this time, the government should ensure the restoration of economic growth and incomes of Indians. By the end of Q2. By 2021, no more than 20% of the regions were in the third stage of lifting sanitary restrictions. The economy should begin “sustainable growth”: real money incomes of the population should not be lower than 98% of the 2019 level;
Stage of active growth. 3 - 4 sq. 2021 At this time, the country's economic growth should aim for ""above global rates."" During this period, the full opening of the business will take place, taking into account long-term sanitary and epidemiological requirements.
However, at the same time, it is worth noting that the government's plans regarding the pace and timing of economic growth after the crisis quite often do not come true.
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According to the survey, the print shops most affected by the crisis are commercial and street-print companies, followed by print shops specializing in books.
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Based on the forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy, GidMarket analysts made a forecast for the development of the printing market.
4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
As part of the scenario of one quarantine, the analysts of the GidMarket company predict the growth of the printing market by the end of 2021 ...
Diagram 19. Forecast of the volume of the printing market in 2021 - 2025, billion Rs. – in case of a single quarantine scenario
4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines
Within two quarantines, GidMarket analysts predict market growth by 2,3 p.p. lower than in the scenario with one quarantine.
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4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry
The industry is now facing a never-before-seen operating environment as the pandemic imposes restrictions everywhere, requiring businesses to comply with many uncompromising hygiene and safety requirements.
New restrictions introduced due to the pandemic have created new market needs. Satisfying them, a business can both attract new customers and comprehensively solve the problems of existing ones. For example, the need to label space and maintain social distancing has created an increased demand for warning labels, safety instructions, and boundary lines.
In times of crisis, the focus traditionally shifts to print materials that help customers minimize costs without significantly compromising the quality of the finished product.
Given the requirements for resistance to wear and contamination, synthetic materials may be the best solution. In the long term, their use allows customers to save much more than using the usual economy class papers. This is possible due to the special properties of such materials.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the natural migration of online print ordering processes for both individuals and business customers.
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
Modern statistical forecasting methods are used, taking into account the actual dynamics of the industry and the impact of the current and projected general economic situation in connection with the spread of the covid-19 virus.
In addition, when compiling the forecast, changes in real incomes of the population, trends in consumer preferences in a crisis, development forecasts and the degree of impact of other factors affecting the industry are taken into account.
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
Industry volume over the past 7-8 years
Industry dynamics in 2008-2009, in 2013-2020*
Dynamics of macroeconomic indicators over the past 8-9 years
Current public assistance plans
Databases of the State Statistics Committee of India
Indian Revenue Service databases
India Customs databases
Open sources (websites, portals)
Issuer reporting
Company websites
Media Archives
Regional and federal media
Insider sources
Specialized analytical portals
* Until October 2021, financial indicators for the main market operators and industry coefficients for 2020 are GidMarket forecast based on the dynamics for 2016-2019, except for cases when the operator discloses data on the results of financial 2020 publicly.
5.3. Timing of forecasting
The forecast belongs to the medium-term category - 5 years (2020-2024)
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the volume of the printing services market in India, 2014-2020, billion Rs.
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the volume of the printing services market in India, 2014-2020, billion units
Figure 3. Stage of the life cycle of the printing market
Diagram 4. Consumption of printing services per capita, 2014-2020, Rs./person
Diagram 5. Distribution of small printing enterprises across the Union Territories
Chart 6. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2015-2020 (Q1-Q3),% of the previous year, trillion Rs.
Chart 7. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2016-Jan. 2021, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 8. Dynamics of the inflation rate in India, 2016-2020, %
Diagram 9. Dynamics of the population of India, as of January 1, 2012-2021, million people, thousand people
Diagram 10. Population forecast in India for the period 2021-2024, million people
Chart 11. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2015-2020 (9 months)
Diagram 12. Dynamics of the average interest rate on loans, 2015-2020, %
Chart 13. Printing industry in India
Diagram 14. Market structure by type of organizations providing printing services
Diagram 15. Structure of enterprises by size, %
Diagram 16. Shares of the largest competitors in the printing services market in India in 2020, %
Diagram 17. Dynamics of revenue volume of the largest operators of the printing services market (TOP-5) in India, 2014-2020, billion Rs.
Diagram 18. Comparison of the company's turnover with the data of 2019
Diagram 19. Forecast of the volume of the printing market in 2021 - 2025, billion Rs. – in case of a single quarantine scenario
Diagram 20. Forecast of the volume of the printing industry market in 2021 - 2025, billion Rs. – in the scenario of two quarantines
Chart 21. Positive components of the 2020 crisis
Tables
Table 1. Market volume of certain types of printing services in real terms, 2014-2019
Table 2. Promotion channels
Table 3. Industrial production index by state of India (in % of the previous year), 2015 - 2020
Table 4. Weighted average interest rates of credit institutions on credit operations in rupees, excluding PJSC Sberbank (% per annum), 2015-2020
Table 5. STEP analysis of factors influencing the printing services market
Table 6. Main companies participating in the printing services market in 2020
Table 7. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 8. List of sectors of the Indian economy most affected by the deterioration of the situation as a result of the spread of a new coronavirus infection (as of October 16, 2020)
Table 9. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
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