Gemstone Jewelry Market Development Forecast
The relevance of research
The subject of this study is jewelry (JI) with precious stones. Precious stones include natural diamonds, emeralds, rubies, sapphires and alexandrites, as well as natural pearls in raw (natural) and processed form. The market for jewelry with precious stones in this study refers to the totality of enterprises that form the supply of the market, the number of consumers that form the demand of the market, as well as the relationship that arises between sellers and consumers
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the gemstone jewelry market, assessment of the market size, competitor analysis, as well as identification of factors affecting the gemstone jewelry market
Content
Chapter 1. Economic Characteristics of the Gemstone Jewelry Market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Market Growth Rate
1.3. Market trends
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
1.9. Sales channels
1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine in connection with covid-2019
4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines
4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Part 1. Economic characteristics of the gemstone jewelry market
1.1. Market size
The subject of this study is jewelry (JI) with precious stones. Precious stones include natural diamonds, emeralds, rubies, sapphires and alexandrites, as well as natural pearls in raw (natural) and processed form, as well as unique amber formations in the manner established by the Government of India.
The market for jewelry with precious stones in this study refers to the totality of enterprises that form the supply of the market, the number of consumers that form the demand of the market, as well as the relationship that arises between sellers and consumers.
The issue of classification of jewelry is complicated, since it has not yet been precisely determined which types of products are included in the jewelry group. Personal jewelry items are the most common group of jewelry.
The assessment and calculation of the indicator of the market volume and its components (production, imports and exports) in this case is much more difficult, due to the following factors:
A negative factor in production and marketing is the high share of shadow turnover. The black market continues to hold, according to experts, up to 60% of the Indian jewelry market. In this study, only the legal part of the market is considered.
The Assay Office, which keeps records on the legal market of GIs, does not provide open data on the testing of GIs with precious stones. This category of products is taken into account in the total mass of registered products. Therefore, the volumes of production of JI with precious stones are estimated by GidMarket based on Rosstat data.
Since 2017, the production of various goods in India is accounted for under the new OKPD2 classification. At the same time, changes in codes in the production of jewelry associated with the introduction of a new system do not allow direct use of Rosstat data: until 2016, inclusive, the production of jewelry with precious stones was recorded according to the following items: OKPD: (36.22.13.112) Jewelry products and their parts from gold, with diamonds (except for awards, ritual and ritual items), OKPD: (36.22.13.113) Jewelry and parts thereof made of gold, with precious stones and pearls (except for items with diamonds, awards, ritual and ritual items), OKPD: (36.22.13.124) Jewelry and parts thereof made of silver, with precious stones, including diamonds (except for awards, ritual and ceremonial products, folk art crafts) and OKPD: (36.22.13.122) Jewelry and parts thereof made of platinum and palladium, with diamonds (except for awards, ritual items). Since 2017, the classification of YI has been carried out only by the type of metal (gold, silver, other precious metals), and the code “Ritual and ceremonial products of precious metals” has also been allocated.
The classification of goods for foreign trade operations (TN VED codes) for the import and export of jewelry provides for the general code 7113, further subdivided only by the name of the metals used in the UI. At the same time, products with precious stones are imported and exported under the same code as products with non-precious stones or without inserts. In addition, often in one delivery (according to one customs declaration) they are present as items with precious, non-precious stones or without inserts.
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At the same time, diamond jewelry is an absolute classic, but even here there are some trends: jewelry with large and expensive stones is becoming more and more popular. Jewelers offer jewelry to buyers as an investment.
1.2. Market Growth Rate
The dynamics of the market for jewelry with precious stones, determined by GidMarket on the basis of data from Rosstat, the Federal Customs Service, and expert estimates, in physical terms, has a spasmodic character.
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the market volume of jewelry with precious stones, 2013 - 2019, thousand pieces
1.3. Market trends
Let's take a look at the trends in the main volume components of the gemstone jewelry market in India.
It is difficult to characterize the volume of jewelry production in real terms by a single trend: manufacturers are sensitive to consumer behavior, so they have to adjust to the preferences of the target audience.
Diagram 3. The structure of the production of YI with precious stones by the name of the base metal in 2014-2019,%
Items made of platinum and palladium occupy an insignificant share in the production volume during the entire period and do not affect the market volume.
Until 2014, inclusive, silver items with precious stones were produced in minimal quantities. The decline in household incomes led to a reorientation of demand (and, accordingly, production) to cheaper silver items, while preserving precious inserts in items.
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It seems logical to see an increase in the growth of the silver market when the gold market falls: wanting to buy a piece of jewelry, despite a decrease in income, in difficult economic periods, people do not refuse to buy jewelry, but reorient themselves towards less expensive silver jewelry.
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1.4. The main problems of the industry
Let's note the main problems of the industry based on the opinions of experts:
According to the Jewelers Guild of India …% of exports of precious metals and precious stones from India is rough diamonds and precious metal ingots. The share of jewelry does not exceed …%.
The Guild of Jewelers also points to excessive regulation at the stage of production, sale and export, and to the imperfection of legal regulation of procedures for the export of jewelry products and other problems hindering the development of the export direction.
General decrease in consumption in the country
The main expenses of the household are resources (payment for housing and communal services, communications, gasoline, taxes), then - food, in third place - clothes. For many Indians, income is distributed among the specified expenses. Jewelry has no useful properties, except for emotions, does not deteriorate and is not consumed - the budget for their purchase is reduced, which leads to a drop in retail sales, a decrease in orders from retailers to manufacturers and underutilization of production capacities, which can lead to inefficiency and losses.
Changing buying priorities
Crisis of overcapacity
The crisis in the number of outlets
Growing administrative pressure, excessive regulation of business
Jewelers Guild of India: “It is planned to introduce an integrated traceability system for precious metals and precious stones, as well as to introduce a jewelry labeling system. With all the positive aspects and expected benefits from the introduction of labeling, it is also necessary to prepare for an increase in costs, both time and financial, associated with the organization and maintenance of the system, since information will be entered into this system for each unit of production. The amount of administration costs will increase when compared with what currently exists through Rosfinmonitoring.”
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Higher cost of Indian products compared to foreign products due to applicable taxes, customs duties and credit rates
Template thinking, inert state, irresponsibility of personnel
The Shadow Market
Also in the discussions, industry participants talk about such problems and confirm what was said earlier:
Temporarily or permanently forced to close production due to lack of demand and the presence of a significant amount of leftovers. At the same time, “the remaining customers offer a price that is practically equal to the cost of the product”;
Stones that are not mined in the country, rubies, sapphires, etc., are imported into India with a large duty, which equalizes, or even overstates the final price of the goods in comparison with imported ones. Indian jewelers find themselves at a disadvantage in relation to jewelry manufacturers from a number of foreign countries;
The design of especially serial products leaves much to be desired, the products are faceless and primitive. “It is almost impossible to find a good designer, so that he, as an art director, determines the style of the company”;
In the near future, the market for jewelry with synthetic stones, including artificially grown diamonds (brilliant-cut), will pose a significant threat to the market of YI with precious stones.
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
Gemstone jewelry has an unusually long life cycle compared to conventional consumer goods. Currently, the market is in a phase of maturity, showing a downward trend.
Consumers continue to buy gemstone jewelry despite the lack of targeted industry advertising to help keep the item as a luxury item in the first place. Opportunities exist to change the direction of the industry by targeting a new generation and raising their awareness of the emotional appeal of gemstone jewelry.
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1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
According to the calculation of consumption per capita (Section 1.7), in 2019 every 43rd inhabitant of the country purchased a product with precious stones at least once.
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Differentiation of incomes of the population is also observed in India on a geographical basis.
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1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
The volume of consumption per capita is calculated by GidMarket based on the ratio of the market volume to the population of India.
Diagram 10. The volume of consumption in the market of jewelry with precious stones per capita, 2015-2019, pieces/1000 people in year
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
Today, the topic of innovation is quite fashionable. But, as a rule, the introduction of technology is most often associated with advanced technologies, space or high-tech and never with the production of jewelry.
However, in fact, there are many innovations in jewelry. Even in the production of such a conservative jewelry as an engagement ring, an innovative approach is used. Yes, most of the rings are made of gold and set with precious stones, although not so long ago, diamond setting was a novelty. They left their mark in the production of wedding rings and the possibility of the latest equipment. The diamond tool and the use of a laser made it possible to decorate the rings with an elegant pattern. However, this is not the limit. There are combined rings, and in the future, the appearance of nano rings is possible.
Goldsmiths use three types of gold today: yellow, red and white. Moreover, modern wedding rings involve the use of three or at least two types at the same time. And if earlier there was only an insert made of another type of gold, today in products the combination of types of gold is the most complex combination, which often does not make it possible to understand what is the main type of gold in this ring. Other decorations also offer innovations.
A variety of textures can be seen in silver. Modern technologies have made it possible to obtain interesting new textures, ranging from soft matte colors to unique plating with trendy rhodium. Such innovations make it possible to obtain universal and at the same time unique jewelry.
In the direction of the use of precious stones, there are also innovations: new types of cutting are invented, new ways of fixing stones in products that ensure strength.
Jewelers have learned how to create various types of alloys, engrave both metal and stones, use nanotechnology to change the color of metals.
The most discussed and popular trend recently is the use of additive (3D) technologies in jewelry.
4 tasks that a 3D printer, 3D scanner and software perform:
- creation of unique models of future products of any complexity;
- production of jewelry according to three-dimensional models;
- creation of a digital archive;
- restoration of products.
3 main advantages of additive technologies:
- reduction of production costs;
- saving time in the manufacture of products;
- reduction of labor costs and costs from the loss of precious metals.
Computer modeling allows you to perfectly realize the design:
- absolute observance of symmetry;
- clear corners or smooth bends;
- combination of geometric shapes;
- scrupulous study of the smallest details;
- accurate placement of stones and other jewelry inserts;
- marking depressions for further enameling.
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1.9. Sales channels
Let's consider the main channels for the sale of jewelry to end consumers (the population) in 2019 using the example of gold jewelry.
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During the period from 01.01.18/30.06.20/100 to / / , more than tenders for the purchase of jewelry were announced, but only a few of them were for the supply of jewelry with precious stones.
In general, medals, orders, other premium and souvenir products, etc. are most often purchased through tenders among all jewelry.
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1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
To determine the compactness of the location of companies in the industry, let's consider the production volumes for the union territories and determine the leading Indian states in the production of jewelry with precious stones.
Thus, the placement of companies in the industry can be called quite compact.
Diagram 13. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions (by states of India), %
Part 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
GDP (gross domestic product) is used to determine the rate of economic development of any state. GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the total value of goods, works and services that were produced and provided in the country in a year. Gross domestic product is the main indicator on the basis of which the level and pace of the country's economic development are determined.
Let's take a look at some experts' assessments:
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Index of industrial production - an indicator of the dynamics of the volume of industrial production, its rise or fall, is determined as the ratio of the current volume of production in monetary terms to the volume of industrial production in the previous or other base year. This index characterizes the change in GDP due to the fundamental sectors of the economy: mining, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water.
Diagram 18 shows the dynamics of the retail trade volume index.
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Jewelry and gems as an investment. Gold has firmly established itself as one of the most sought-after assets in the eyes of investors. However, the least profitable investment in gold is the purchase of jewelry. The price of jewelry includes the costs of the store, the expensive work of a jewelry master, and the artistic value of the product is also included in the price.
Investing in gemstones, like many other atypical types of investments, is always more of an emotion than a business. Such investments are designed for a long time, as the price of jewelry is steadily rising.
Investors usually invest in jewelry and gemstones to protect their funds from depreciation and generate income.
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Deterioration of the investment climate in the country.
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Diagram 19. Change in the total number of economic states in the jewelry industry, pieces, May 2017 - November 2019
2.2. Social Components
During 2010-2018, there is an increase in the population.
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Urbanization. During 2014-2019, urbanization is taking place - the number of urban residents is increasing, while since 2015 the population of rural settlements has been decreasing.
Insufficiently formed culture of consumption.
Changing consumer behavior among young people. Silver, gold and precious stones, having become available to a significant number of people, ceased to be luxury goods. Jewelry as a commodity has largely lost its uniqueness.
There has been a trend of buying everyday jewelry. The current consumer, especially in the capital and large cities, considers rings, earrings, bracelets, chains as elements of the image and style. And this is a global trend.
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2.3. Technological components
High import dependence in the market of equipment for the production of articles from precious metals.
To stimulate consumer demand for jewelry, manufacturers are trying to improve and diversify the materials used in jewelry in addition to precious metals and stones. For the production of jewelry, a large number of different materials are additionally used - glass, plastic, leather, wood and even textiles.
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The development of the global Internet network, the availability of its use for the population, as well as the growing popularity of Internet sales have a positive effect on the development of the market in question.
Diagram 24 shows the dynamics of the share of sales via the Internet.
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Seasonality of sales. The specificity of the jewelry business is that most of the purchases are made on the eve of the holidays. This seasonality must be taken into account when planning a business. The biggest revenue happens, as a rule, in March and December. This factor has a negative impact on the market.
The presence of an illegal (shadow) market. A negative factor in production and marketing is the high share of shadow turnover. The black market continues to hold, according to experts, up to ...% of the Indian jewelry market. And only the state can help the Indian manufacturer survive, with the adoption of a number of measures necessary to protect the consumer from the flow of illegal low-quality products from precious metals and precious stones that have flooded the Indian market.
Counterfeit detection. Market participants note an increase in the replacement of precious stones with synthetics. Their movement within the single customs space of the EAEU cannot be controlled, however, as well as legal products, since there are no uniform regulations and laws on the movement of stones across the borders of the EAEU member states yet.
Mandatory marking of precious metals, precious stones and products made from them, which was scheduled for 2019, was initially postponed until January 1, 2020. Since that date, the Ministry of Finance proposed to make marking mandatory for all market participants involved in the circulation of precious and jewelry products in India. Simultaneously with the introduction of marking, a mobile application will be launched for buyers who will be able to check on the spot what and where the product is actually made.
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2.4. Political Components
The tense political situation in interstate relations has a negative impact on all spheres of the Indian economy. The main activities of the state and the strategic tasks at present are the development of new models of cooperation with the US and the EU and the approval of India in the world monetary system. Anti-India sanctions and the generally sharp deterioration in relations between Western countries and India largely determine India's foreign policy.
Credit policy. Today it is quite difficult to imagine the progressive development of the economy without the active participation of the credit system. It should also be noted that the assessment of the availability of credit resources for both legal entities and individuals is a significant indicator that allows assessing not only the demand for credit funds, but can also serve as a reflection of the real economic situation both in the region and in the economy as a whole.
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State regulation is a factor that generally has a significant impact on the current market situation. It is a set of centralized administrative influence on the activities of a sector of the economy through the formation of a regulatory and legislative framework.
The considered branch of production and sale of products from precious metals and stones is regulated by the following main documents:
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Administrative and fiscal pressure of the state on the jewelry industry. In the context of strengthening the increase in the level of administrative regulation of the jewelry industry, which became the result of the implementation of the Order of the President of India dated 25.10.2017 No. Pr-2167 and the Order of the Government of India dated 30.10.2017 No. ISh-P13-7283, there were preconditions for a significant increase in business costs for both jewelry manufacturers, as well as in the jewelry trade.
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Tax and tariff burden.
A huge problem for enterprises in the industry is the massive filing of claims by the tax service. The main reason is the presence of unscrupulous counterparties in the chain of suppliers of raw materials, precious metals and precious stones. But most of the enterprises that received claims from the tax authorities did not have the opportunity to check all counterparties in the supply chain.
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Federal assay supervision. Federal assay supervision is carried out in order to: protect the rights of consumers of jewelry and other household items made of precious metals, protect the rights of manufacturers of these items from unfair competition, and protect the interests of the state.
The Federal Assay Supervision includes 5 functions:
1. Testing, analysis and branding with the state hallmark of all domestically produced jewelry and other household items made of precious metals, as well as these items imported into the territory of India for sale;
2. Conducting an examination and diagnostics (including in accordance with the decisions of the bodies of inquiry, investigator, court and arbitration court): prints of state hallmarks; precious metals, products from them, as well as scrap and waste of precious metals, etc.
3. State certification of precious metals and stones and their products.
4. Keeping records: organizations (including military units) and individual entrepreneurs engaged in operations with precious metals and stones.
5. Implementation of control (permanent and periodic) for: the safety of museum and archival items made of precious metals and stones; production, extraction, processing, use, storage and accounting of precious metals and stones in organizations.
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Consider together the main factors affecting the market and, accordingly, demand.
Table 11. STEP analysis of factors influencing the gemstone jewelry market
According to the results of the performed STEP-analysis, macro-environment factors have an impact on the development of the gemstone jewelry market…
All groups of factors have multidirectional influence.
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The transition of the entire market from gold jewelry to silver jewelry, with an even greater reduction in free funds among the population, is hardly realistic. Many people like to wear gold. But the refusal of a new purchase of jewelry in favor of using old stocks is one of the most likely scenarios of behavior.
Part 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
Global Competition: …
National Competition: …
Regional competition: …
Local (local) competition: …
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
The largest gemstone jewelry companies include both domestic operators and brands of imported products.
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Diagram 27. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest operators of the gemstone jewelry market (TOP-5) in India, 2013-2019 , billion Rs.
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Jewelry with synthetic stones
The replacement of natural stones with synthetic ones is a major trend in the jewelry market. The reason for this is that artificial stones are cheap to manufacture, and they are often difficult to distinguish from real ones. The cost of producing natural stones only increases due to the fact that old deposits are exhausted, and new ones require serious investments for development. However, when the market gets fed up with synthetics, natural stones will rise in price again.
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It is important to understand that the appearance on the market of two types of stones - artificial and natural - is aimed at two fundamentally different markets. With different audiences and different positioning and marketing. If jewelry networks begin to clearly distinguish between synthetic and natural stones, then the buyer will have a choice: to buy natural stone more expensive or synthetic stone cheaper. The difference in price will be the price for the emotional component.
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Internal competition of products made of gold, silver and other precious metals
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Also, platinum and palladium jewelry is of interest to some groups of buyers, although their market share is insignificant.
Bijouterie
The financial turmoil of the past five years has made costume jewelry even more in demand as an adornment. Jewelry makes it possible to save money, although the premium element of such jewelry is quite comparable in price to jewelry, and also makes it possible to have a truly exclusive piece of jewelry, which is achieved by jewelers due to the high price, but here - thanks to the development of handmade production.
The jewelry market in India is far from saturated, especially when it comes to products of medium and high price categories. There is a trend of gradual saturation of the market with cheap Chinese and South Korean non-jewellery. At the same time, the consumer is making more and more demands on the quality of jewelry.
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Part 4. Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
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“Modern buyers pay more and more attention to product quality, brand and country of manufacture, attractive design and exclusivity of precious products. The stable development of the jewelry market is the result of an increase in the well-being of the population and, as a result, an increase in its purchasing power. The key indicators of the product are the cost of manufacture, the quality of the inserts and the brand of the manufacturer. The only piece of jewelry that is truly an investment value is a piece of gold with large diamonds.
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4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
At the end of March 2020, the government identified 22 industries that will be the first to receive state support in the context of the economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic: the government commission to increase the sustainability of the Indian economy …
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The vast majority of the support measures announced by the president and the government concern only the industries that the government has identified as the most affected. That is, benefits apply only to legal entities and individual entrepreneurs whose main activity code (OKVED) specified in the Unified State Register (EGRLE) is included in the government list of such industries.
Jewelry industry enterprises are not included in the list of so-called affected organizations that suffered financial and material losses from the introduction of the self-isolation regime.
The table below shows the measures of state support for companies in the jewelry market in the following areas:
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4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine in connection with covid-2019
Forecasting the development of the gemstone jewelry market in India is impossible without understanding the economic situation in the country, as well as the impact of the spread of the covid-19 virus and the specifics of the market.
The dynamics of the gemstone jewelry market in 2020 and the medium term will be determined by the following preconditions:
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It is also worth noting that the main and strongly affecting the jewelry industry difference between the current crisis of 2020 and the two previously discussed is the introduction of quarantine measures and a self-isolation regime in the country due to the coronavirus pandemic, which meant the closure of all physical points of sale in addition to the previously indicated factor in reducing income or even loss of work by consumers. The experts expressed the following opinions:
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“During crises and after them, demand shifts towards cheaper products. These are products with a lower average weight, and products with inserts smaller in size and weight, and a decrease in the requirements of buyers for the characteristics of diamonds, and large sales of silver jewelry. There is also a reorientation of buyers to products with cubic zirkonia, which are the most widely used synthetic stones. Probably, this year, and at least the next one, will follow similar trends.”
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The only way to sell YU during the quarantine was to trade through online stores and marketplaces. Experts note that online sales of jewelry companies grew, but they could not radically reverse the situation with a general drop in sales.
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4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
When compiling the GidMarket forecast, the above expert assessments were taken into account: a decrease in the annual equivalent of the market volume in 2020;
the volume of purchases by YU in online stores during the period of quarantine and closing of outlets;
the timing of the recovery of industry volumes;
dynamics of real incomes of the population in 2020-2024 according to the forecast of the Center for Development Institute of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (optimistic variant).
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4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines
When compiling the GidMarket forecast, in addition to the estimates from Section 4.3.1, expert estimates were taken into account on:
the volume of purchases by YU in online stores during the period of two quarantines and the closure of outlets;
dynamics of real incomes of the population in 2020-2024 according to the forecast of the Institute ""Development Center"" of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (pessimistic version).
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4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry
Let's consider examples of options for changing the business in the gemstone jewelry market, which can be applied in a crisis and reduced demand. The section presents both real options implemented by companies, as well as expert assessments and recommendations from specialists in various areas of activity, including specialists from other countries.
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Development of online sales.
Experience of Sunlight and Sokolov: partnership with Internet platforms.
Recommendations from goldglobe.ru on the promotion of the YU online store.
Foreign experience: expansion of traditional business by opening new directions.
Expansion of the range of services.
Cooperation with companies delivering YU with precious stones to different cities of India.
MJZ experience: Transfer of business applications to cloud platforms.
Collaboration with bloggers, jewelers, designers.
Trademark promotion in social networks, communication with customers through an omnichannel contact center.
Reducing the number of outlets, closing inefficient outlets, consolidating the assortment.
Following the trend of dividing buyers into 2 categories.
Assortment aimed at different age, gender categories. Individualization, novelty. Integrated approach of global brands.
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A new generation of consumers is demanding fresh solutions from brands. Therefore, first - a competitive differentiated business model, and then a product that meets modern realities.
Experts suggest:
contemporary classic. Focus on high design. To create modern classics with the value of a piece of jewelry art.
Diversify jewelry. Smart jewelry, combinable from several, cuffs, chokers, transforming jewelry.
Focus on the Western fashion industry, follow how the conservative sphere is changing dramatically, its positioning and advertising tactics, what products and collaborations with artists, designers, idols of generations are emerging.
Part 5. Forecasting methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
Modern statistical forecasting methods are used, taking into account the actual dynamics of the industry and the impact of the current and projected general economic situation in connection with the spread of the covid-19 virus.
In addition, when compiling the forecast, changes in real incomes of the population, trends in consumer preferences in a crisis, development forecasts and the degree of impact of other factors affecting the industry are taken into account.
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
Industry volume over the past 7-8 years
Industry dynamics in 2008-2009, in 2013-2019*
Dynamics of macroeconomic indicators over the past 8-9 years
Current public assistance plans
Databases of the State Statistics Committee of India
Indian Revenue Service databases
India Customs databases
Open sources (websites, portals)
Issuer reporting
Company websites
Media Archives
Regional and federal media
Insider sources
Specialized analytical portals
* Until October 2020 financial indicators for the main market operators and industry coefficients for 2019 - GidMarket forecast based on the dynamics for 2015-2018, except for cases when the operator discloses data on the results of financial 2019 publicly.
5.3. Timing of forecasting
The forecast belongs to the medium-term category - 5 years (2020-2024)
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the market volume of jewelry with precious stones, 2013 - 2019, thousand pieces
Diagram 2. Volume and dynamics of production of IG with precious stones in India in 2014-2019, thousand pieces
Diagram 3. The structure of the production of YI with precious stones by the name of the base metal in 2014-2019,%
Chart 4. Dynamics of the average weight of jewelry tested and branded by the Indian State Assay Office in 2013-2019, g
Diagram 5. The volume and dynamics of imports of jewelry with precious stones to India in 2014-2019, thousand cond. PCS.
Diagram 6. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market of GI with precious stones, 2014-2019, %
Diagram 7. The volume and dynamics of exports of IG with precious stones from India in 2014-2019, thousand cond. things.
Diagram 8. The share of exports in production in 2014-2019,%
Figure 9. Industry life cycle stage
Diagram 10. The volume of consumption in the market of jewelry with precious stones per capita, 2015-2019, pieces/1000 people in year
Figure 11. 3D model of the ring
Diagram 12. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions (by union territories), %
Diagram 13. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions (by states of India), %
Chart 14. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2007-2019, Q1 2020, % to the previous year
Chart 15. Expert forecasts for a decline in real GDP in India in 2020 (baseline/neutral scenario), %
Chart 16. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2015-2020 (Jan-Jun), Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 17. Dynamics of India's IPP in 2014 - 2020 (Jan.-Mar.), % to the previous year
Diagram 18. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, 2013 - 2020 (Jan.-Mar.), % to the previous year
Diagram 19. Change in the total number of economic states in the jewelry industry, pieces, May 2017 - November 2019
Diagram 20. Population dynamics in India as of January 1, 2010-2020, million people, %
Diagram 21. Population forecast in India for the period 2021-2024, million people
Diagram 22. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2011 - 2019, % to the previous year
Chart 23. Index of non-ferrous metal ores mining in India, 2014-2019, % to the previous year
Diagram 24. Share of sales via the Internet in the Union Territories in the total volume of retail trade turnover in 2014-2019, %
Chart 25. Dynamics of the average interest rate on loans, 2014-2020 (Jan-Feb.), %
Diagram 26. Shares of the largest competitors in the gemstone jewelry market in 2019, %
Diagram 27. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest operators of the gemstone jewelry market (TOP-5) in India, 2013-2019 , billion Rs.
Diagram 28. Forecast of the volume of the global market for synthetic diamond jewelry, billion dollars, 2023, 2035
Diagram 29. Gemstone Jewelry Market Size Forecast in 2020 - 2024 – under the scenario of one quarantine, thousand pieces.
Chart 30. Gemstone Jewelry Market Size Forecast 2020 - 2024 - under the scenario of two quarantines, thousand pieces.
Tables
Table 1. Distribution of total cash income of the population in India by 20% population groups in 2012-2019, Rs., %
Table 2. Average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees across the full range of organizations by states of India in April 2019 and April 2020, Rs.
Table 3. Sales channels
Table 4. The share of chain and non-chain outlets by the total volume of purchases of gold legal assets in 2019, %
Table 5. Data on tenders for the purchase of jewelry with precious stones, announced in 01.01.2018/30.06.2020/ - / /
Table 6. Expert forecasts for a decline in real GDP in India in 2020 (baseline/neutral scenario), %
Table 7. Average producer prices for electricity in India at the end of the period in 2017-2019, rupees per unit of measurement, CPI for electricity supply services, %
Table 8. Urban and rural population in India in 2014-2019, million people, %
Table 9. Indicators of monitoring the development of the information society in India in terms of the use of the Internet in 2012-2018, units rev.
Table 10. Weighted average interest rates of credit institutions on lending operations in rupees, excluding PJSC Sberbank (% per annum), 2015-2020 (Jan-Feb)
Table 11. STEP analysis of factors influencing the gemstone jewelry market
Table 12. Main companies participating in the gemstone jewelry market in 2019
Table 13. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 14. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
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