Forecast of the sleeper market in the current economic situation in India
The relevance of research
Sleepers are called supports for rails laid on the ballast VSP layer. It is due to them that the relative position of the rail threads is maintained. They are subjected to the pressure to which the rails or intermediate fasteners are subjected. The sleepers transfer this pressure to the base
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the sleeper market in India, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the market in question
Content
Chapter 1. Key components of the sleeper market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Sleeper Market Growth Rate
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
1.4. Volume and dynamics of sleepers production
1.5. Import sleepers. Volume and dynamics
1.6. Export of sleepers. Volume and dynamics
1.7. Share of exports in production
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Sleeper market trends
2.2. The main problems of the industry
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
2.7. Sleeper Market Life Cycle Stage
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
3.2. Social Components
3.3. Technological components
3.4. Political Components
3.5. STEP analysis of the sleeper market
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
4.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers to the sleeper market
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the sleepers market
5.5. Forecast of the development of the sleeper market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
6.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Key components of the sleeper market
1.1. Market size
Sleepers are called supports for rails laid on the ballast VSP layer. It is due to them that the relative position of the rail threads is maintained. They are subjected to the pressure to which the rails or intermediate fasteners are subjected. The sleepers transfer this pressure to the base.
The superstructure of the track (VSP) is a single complex structure, ...
Demand for sleepers for railway transport, subway and tram tracks remained ... in the face of epidemic restrictions. Domestic manufacturers of sleepers were able not only to save …, but also … At the end of 2020, the market volume amounted to … billion Rs.
1.2. Sleeper Market Growth Rate
In the analyzed period, the market volume increased by …% in 2020. compared to 2013, i.e. the growth rate was …%.
During the analyzed period, the growth rate of the market volume in value terms amounted to more than …% in all years except for …years. and varied within …%. The sleeper market growth rate of less than 100% was observed in …%, respectively, when the market volume … decreased … under the influence of …
Sleeper market growth rate in 2020 amounted to …% compared to 2019, … occurred due to the implementation of national …
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
A feature of the Indian sleeper market is that it does not...
In 2013 the share of imports of sleepers in India was …%, in 2020. the share of imports in the volume of the Indian market was equal to …%, it is ..compared to …g. on ... p.p.
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the sleepers market, 2013–2020, %
However, it should be noted that in 2020 share of imports of sleepers compared to 2019 …% to …% due to ..
1.4. Volume and dynamics of sleepers production
For the analyzed period 2013-2020. According to Rosstat and GidMarket's estimate, the volume of sleepers production in India in value terms is … by …% from … bln Rs. in 2013 up to … billion Rs. in 2020
In 2013, sleepers were produced in India in the amount of … billion Rs. In 2014-2015 sleeper production volume...
In 2016 occurred … by …% (… bln Rs.) due to a decrease in ...
In 2017 production volume … compared to 2016 and remained … billion Rs.
In 2018-2020 sleeper production volume...
According to GidMarket at the end of 2020. the volume of sleepers production in India in value terms … by …% compared to 2019 and amounted to … billion Rs. ... occurred under the influence of ..., but to a greater extent - on ...
1.5. Import sleepers. Volume and dynamics
… sleepers occupies … in the market volume, which by the end of 2020. amounted to …%.
In 2013 the volume of imports of sleepers amounted to … thousand tons. the volume of imports in physical terms …% and amounted to … thousand tons.
Diagram 4. Volume and dynamics of imports of sleepers, 2013–2020, thousand tons
The volume of imports in physical terms during 2015-2016. after the 2014 crisis …% and …% per year, respectively, and became … under the influence of ...
In 2017-2019 the volume of imports of sleepers in physical terms … within …% and reached in 2019. … thousand tons
In 2020, the volume of imports of sleepers in physical terms …
In monetary terms, the volume of imports of sleepers during the analyzed period 2013-2020. … by … times from … million Rs. in 2013 up to … million Rs. in 2020
In value terms, the volume of imports during 2013-2014. …, in 2015-2016. - … under the influence ...
In 2017-2019 the volume of imports in value terms … and by 2019. reached … million Rs.
At the end of 2020 the volume of imports of sleepers in monetary terms amounted to … mln Rs., the growth rate in relation to 2019. – (…%) by reducing…
1.6. Export of sleepers. Volume and dynamics
For 2013-2020 volume of Indian export of sleepers … s … thousand tons in 2013 up to … thousand tons in 2020 - on the …%. It happened under the influence...
Until 2017 the volume of exports in physical terms … and reached … thousand tons.
In 2018-2019 export volume annually...
In 2020 export volume …% influenced by …
In monetary terms, the volume of exports of Indian …, during the period under review, it increased by … times from … million Rs. in 2013 up to … million Rs. in 2020
The largest growth rate in the export of sleepers in value terms occurred in ..., similar to the indicator ... In 2020. at … the volume of exports in monetary terms …
1.7. Share of exports in production
The share of exports in the production of sleepers in India during the analyzed period 2013-2020. … from …% in 2013 to …% in 2020
In 2016-2017 share of export …% and …%, respectively, due to the fact that the main efforts of manufacturers were aimed at ...
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Sleeper market trends
Among the main trends and tendencies of the sleepers market, the following can be noted:
- the market is at the stage of ...;
- at present, the market volume is largely affected by the increase in ...;
- demand for sleepers for …;
- ...
...
2.2. The main problems of the industry
The main issues in the industry include:
- dynamics and volume of the market strongly depend on …;
- demand fluctuates, depending on …;
- intensifies ...;
- the market is ...;
- ...
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
The buyers in the sleeper market are … and …, who …
According to ... in India ... enterprises with ...
...
Among industrial enterprises of medium scale, the share of having their own structural railway subdivisions is about …%. These include …
...
For most medium and small companies, their own railway tracks are …
...
The TOP-5 regions in the market structure include:
- …, which accounts for …%;
- … (…%);
- … (…%);
- … (…%);
- ... (...%).
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
Let us estimate the volume of consumption of sleepers in monetary terms per capita.
The volume of consumption is calculated by GidMarket based on the ratio of the market volume of sleepers in monetary terms to the population as of January 1 of the corresponding year.
The indicator has a trend towards ... In 2020. per capita consumption amounted to … Rs./person, which is by …% more than the level of …g.
For the period from 2013 consumption of sleepers per capita in monetary terms …%.
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
Important data for analyzing the state of the industry is the dynamics of such indicators as profitability and liquidity.
The table below shows the dynamics of the gross margin indicator (the ratio of gross profit to income).
Table 1. Gross margin of the sleeper industry compared to all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, %
For the period under review, from 2015 by 2020 the dynamics of the gross margin in the sleeper industry was ... - within ...% - ...%, in 2020 - equal to ...%. In relation to 2020 gross margin of the industry … p.p.
During the entire analyzed period, the gross margin in the industry under study was ... the level of gross margin in all sectors of the Indian economy. At the end of 2020 the difference was (… p.p.).
Consider the dynamics of profitability before tax.
In general, for the period 2015-2020. the profitability of profit before tax in the sleeper industry was ... the profitability of profit before tax in all sectors of the economy. The performance of the industry is influenced by ... The work of the industry can be called ...
Consider liquidity indicators in the sleeper industry. The indicator of current liquidity is a measure of the solvency of the organization, the ability to repay its current obligations.
The estimated indicator of the current liquidity of a normally operating solvent legal entity must be at least 1, i.e. it is necessary that the total value of current assets be greater than the amount of short-term liabilities.
If the current ratio is greater than 2, this indicates that the company has more current assets than short-term liabilities with double coverage. The company has a high ability in the short term to pay off its obligations (debts).
The normative value of current liquidity is 2 and is most often found in domestic regulations. In world practice, a coefficient in the range from 1,5 to 2,5 is considered optimal.
For the studied industry during the period from 2015 to 2020. current liquidity ratio … in 2016, however, was ... During 2017-2018. current liquidity ratio …, in 2019-2020 he ... and in 2020. reached ... - amounted to ..., which currently speaks of ...
Absolute liquidity ratio shows what part of short-term liabilities can be, if necessary, repaid immediately at the expense of available cash and marketable securities.
The normative value of the absolute liquidity ratio is in the range from 0,2 to 0,3. This value of the coefficient means that from 20% to 30% of short-term liabilities can be repaid by the enterprise immediately at the expense of cash.
The table shows the dynamics of this coefficient.
During the analyzed period, the overall indicator for all sectors of the Indian economy did not fall below ..., which indicates ... In the sleeper manufacturing industry, the indicator in 2015-2019. was ... average Indian level of absolute liquidity. In 2020 absolute liquidity ratio has become ...
In general, the analysis of the industry financial ratios of the sleeper industry in India shows ... At the same time, the indicators of ... indicate the ability of ...
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Production sites of leading Indian manufacturers are located in … federal districts:
- … occupies …% of the Union Territories, in the structure of sleepers production the main manufacturing companies are: …;
Diagram 13. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions
- … Union Territories occupies …% in the structure of production, the main manufacturing companies: …;
- … Union Territories account for …%;
- ... Union territories occupies ...%, ...
2.7. Sleeper Market Life Cycle Stage
Let's consider the sleeper market life cycle model. Strategic management uses the market life cycle model, which was proposed and discussed in detail by Michael Porter in 1980. The stage of the market life cycle influences...
The sleeper market life cycle model presented in the diagram shows the development of the market in the form of a line of revenue over time, or it is also called the market life cycle curve. There are four stages in the market life cycle:
...
The sleeper market is at the stage of the life cycle - ... At this stage, the market ...
At the stage of maturity, enterprises focus on ...
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
GDP
The dynamics of GDP is a determining factor in the development of the country's economy, it forms the main trends in consumer effective demand and economic activity in industries.
From 2012 to 2014 GDP growth was … after the 2014 crisis. GDP growth rate in 2015 became ... In 2016-2019. occurred …% year on year.
Chart 15. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-2020, available period 2021, % of the previous year
According to the estimate of …, the decline in India's gross domestic product in 2020 amounted to …%. The Government of India has predicted...
GDP decline by …% in 2020 associated with …
… improved the estimate of the growth of the Indian economy in 2021. to …%, while a more pessimistic forecast for 2022 was made. - …%.
Grade …
...
3.2. Social Components
...
3.3. Technological components
...
3.4. Political Components
...
3.5. STEP analysis of the sleeper market
Let's analyze the influence of the above factors in the framework of the STEP-analysis.
According to the results of the performed STEP-analysis, macro-environment factors have a greater influence on the sleeper market.
Economic factors like...
Social factors - ... have ... an impact on the growth and development of the market.
A group of technological factors has an impact on the market.
Political factors...
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
Global competition: The sleeper market is not …, since the share of foreign-made goods in 2020 amounted to …%.
Import flows take ...
Indian manufacturers also carry out…
National competition: expressed ...
Regional and local competition: are expressed in some ...
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
The largest competitors in the sleeper market and their relative market shares are shown in the table.
Top-5 companies of the market occupy …% in its structure in terms of money.
The leading players are:
- … with a share of …%;
- ...
Other manufacturers and importers account for …% of the market.
Diagram 17. Shares of the largest competitors in the sleepers market in 2020,
The degree of concentration of players in the market can be assessed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, an indicator used to assess the degree of monopolization of an industry.
According to the values of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices, there are three types of market:
Type I - highly concentrated markets: 1800
Type II - moderately concentrated markets: 1000
Type III - low-concentration markets: HHI <1000
For the Indian sleeper market in 2020 the Herfindahl-Hirschman index amounted to … - the market is highly concentrated.
4.3. Competition from substitute products
Substitute products in the sleeper market…
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
Let us analyze data on the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis of 2014).
...
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
In recent years, the state has created many instruments of state support for industries, including the railway industry, which includes the sleeper industry. Let's analyze the measures of state support for the industry, which are presented in the table below.
...
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers to the sleeper market
...
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the sleepers market
The further development of the sleeper market in India will largely depend on the general economic condition of India. According to …
...
5.5. Forecast of the development of the sleeper market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
...
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
...
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the market volume of sleepers, 2013–2020
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the sleepers market, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 3. Dynamics of sleeper production volumes in India, 2013-2020
Diagram 4. Volume and dynamics of imports of sleepers, 2013–2020, thousand tons
Diagram 5. Volume and dynamics of imports of sleepers, 2013–2020, million Rs.
Diagram 6. The volume and dynamics of exports of sleepers, 2013–2020, thousand tons
Diagram 7. Volume and dynamics of export of sleepers, 2013–2020, million Rs.
Chart 8. Share of exports in production, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 9. Structure of enterprises with their own access railway tracks and rolling stock by regions of India
Chart 10. Consumption in the sleeper market per capita, 2013-2020
Diagram 11. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the sleeper industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, %
Diagram 12. Current liquidity (total coverage) for the sleeper industry for 2015–2020, times
Diagram 13. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions
Diagram 14. Life cycle stage of the sleeper market
Chart 15. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-2020, available period 2021, % of the previous year
Chart 16. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2016 -
available period 2021, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 17. Shares of the largest competitors in the sleepers market in 2020, %
Tables
Table 1. Gross margin of the sleeper industry compared to all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, %
Table 2. Absolute liquidity of the sleeper industry compared to all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, times
Table 3. Urban and rural population in India in 2014-2020 (as of January 1), million people, %
Table 4. STEP analysis of factors affecting the sleeper market
Table 5. Main companies participating in the sleepers market in 2020
Table 6. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 7. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
Table 8. Forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy until 2024 (basic version), units rev.
Table 9. India Sleeper Market Size Forecast 2021-2025
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