Forecast of the development of the mental health services market
The relevance of research
Currently, India is reforming mental health care in connection with ensuring a balanced combination of its inpatient, semi-inpatient and outpatient links. In accordance with the new approaches that have developed in world practice, a community-oriented model of providing psychiatric care is being actively introduced in India. Priority development is given to outpatient services. Psychosocial treatment and psychosocial rehabilitation of patients are more widely used in psychiatric institutions and units.
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the market for mental health services, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, consumers, as well as identification of factors affecting the market
Content
Chapter 1. Economic characteristics of the market for mental health services
1.1. Market size
1.2. Market Growth Rate
1.3. Market trends
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
1.9. Sales channels. Sales channels
1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine in connection with covid-2019
4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines
4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Economic characteristics of the market for mental health services
1.1. Market size
Psychiatric care is a type of specialized medical care provided to patients with mental (psycho-neurological) diseases, as well as a network of health care institutions and their units designed to provide such care.
There are the following types of psychiatric care:
Emergency psychiatric care (ambulance teams, hotlines).
Outpatient psychiatric care (psycho-neurological dispensaries, specialized rooms in polyclinics, kindergartens, schools, outpatient care in a non-state level, specialized private practice).
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1.2. Market Growth Rate
The growth rate of the mental health services market decreased from …% in 2015 to …% in 2017, in 2018 the market increased to …%, by 2019 the growth rate decreased to …%. For the period from 2013 to 2019 the highest growth rates were observed in 2014 (…%).
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the mental health services market in India in 2013-2019 in value terms
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Diagram 2. Dynamics of the paid medical services market in India in 2013-2019 in value terms
In January-May 2020, the volume of the paid medical services market decreased by …% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. For comparison, the total volume of the market of paid services decreased by …% over the same period.
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Table 1. Patients with mental and behavioral disorders per 100 people in the Union Territories of India in 2019
1.3. Market trends
Trends in the development of mental health care in the EU countries
Approaches to the provision of mental health care differ, however, all European states follow the instructions of the World Health Organization (WHO). The following main trends can be distinguished:
Deinstitutionalization – the closure of public psychiatric hospitals or the reduction of their inpatient departments by reducing the number of beds and funding. This approach allows the private sector and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to create residential care facilities where treatment takes place in a more homely environment and atmosphere.
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Mental Health Care Trends in India
The development of psychiatric care in India is taking place both in accordance with European trends and with country specifics.
The percentage of severe mental disorders at all times and in all societies is more or less constant: approximately 2,5% of people from the population. But the statistics on borderline mental disorders depend on the situation in society, on the political, economic, social conditions of life, and in this part, the number of diseases has indeed been growing in recent years: according to some reports, at present, up to 25-30% of Indian citizens need the help of a psychiatrist.
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1.4. The main problems of the industry
Among the main problems in the field of mental health care in India are:
Preservation of legislative non-regulation of activities, which is associated with the unfinished process of reforming the industry.
Conservative psychiatric care. Psychiatrists of the old school, as in the Soviet years, are aimed primarily at the treatment of schizophrenia. If a patient with severe depression comes to such doctors, they tend to hospitalize him and prescribe antipsychotics, although this is not always necessary. If the depression is mild or moderate, such doctors advise the patient to take a vacation or get married, for example. Ineffective treatment leads to the fact that people do not go to psychiatrists, fearing a diagnosis of schizophrenia.
“All traditions have been preserved. In the same departments, the same professors teach the same theories and ethics of treating patients. Psychotherapist and psychiatrist Dmitry Krylov.
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1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
According to specialized studies, the highest prevalence of mental disorders is observed in the extreme age groups (under 18 and 60 years and older), an increase in the incidence of the rural population, where often the provision of psychiatric services is not established, and specialized institutions are located at a considerable distance from settlements .
Diagram 5. Dynamics of urban and rural population in India for January 1, 2010-2020
For the period from 2010 to 2020 (as of January 1), the urban population in India increased from 105,3 to 109,6 million people. (growth rate - 104%). The rural population has slightly decreased - from 37,5 to 37,2 million people. (growth rate - 99%).
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Chart 7. Distribution by 20% quintile groups in India in 2014-2019, in % of the total population
1.9. Sales channels. Sales channels
Channels for promoting mental health services generally correspond to channels for promoting all types of medical services.
The promotion of medical services is limited by law:
It is forbidden to use the image of medical and pharmaceutical workers: it is possible only in advertising of medical services and personal hygiene products, it is not allowed to advertise medicines.
When advertising medicines, medical services, including methods of prevention, diagnosis, treatment and medical rehabilitation, medical devices, it is necessary to warn about the presence of contraindications to their use and the need to consult specialists.
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1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
In the geographic structure of the market in 2019, the main part was accounted for by the Central Union Territories (…), the Union Territories (…%) and the Union Territories (…%).
Chart 9. Geographical breakdown of mental health facilities in India, 2019
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
GDP (gross domestic product) is used to determine the rate of economic development of any state. GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the total value of goods, works and services that were produced and provided in the country in a year. Gross domestic product is the main indicator on the basis of which the level and pace of the country's economic development are determined.
The chart below shows India's GDP growth rate from 2007 to 2019 at comparable prices (at 2016 prices).
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Table 3. Expert forecasts for the decline in real GDP in India in 2020, %
On April 26, Aleksey Kudrin corrected his forecast a little: he stated that a decrease in Indian GDP growth rates this year can be expected in the range of …%. He also noted that in the current situation, an analogy with the crisis of 2008 suggests itself, when the decline in GDP amounted to …% (in 2009).
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2.3. Technological components
Technological components that influence the market for mental health services can be divided into two groups:
1. Components specific to the mental health service industry.
These components include scientific developments in psychiatry - the study of the nature of diseases, the emergence of new innovative methods of treatment.
2. Components specific to medicine in general.
In the field of paid medical services, technological factors are closely related to political and legal ones: the Law on Telemedicine, the Law on Electronic Sick Leave, the Law on the Protection of Personal Information.
Telemedicine
More than half of representatives of medical organizations are currently in the active stage of studying telemedicine issues for their organization: ...% are negotiating or have already begun to implement projects, and ...% are discussing potential opportunities. ...% are not yet planning any activities in the field of telemedicine, and ...% have taken a passive, watchful-waiting position. It is curious that many clinics, skeptical towards telemedicine, still intend to implement projects in this direction. They argue this with the desire to “be in trend and not stand out from the rest”, but they are not ready to invest significant funds.
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Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
In the psychiatric care market in India, the degree of competition is assessed as local: psychiatric clinics do not create branched federal networks, they mainly have 1-2 branches.
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
The following organizations provide mental health care in India:
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Thus, psychiatric care in India is provided by ... medical organizations.
Table 5. Main companies participating in the mental health care market in 2017
A feature of the Indian mental health market is a low level of concentration. The largest companies occupy no more than ...% of the market, TOP-5 clinics account for ...% of the market.
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Chart 16. TOP-5 market shares of mental health services in India in 2019
The volume of proceeds of the largest market players increased from ... million Rs. in 2015 to ... million Rs. in 2019. The largest growth was observed in 2016 (...%), the smallest – in 2019 (...%).
Diagram 17. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest operators of the mental health services market (TOP-5) in India, 2015-2019
The growth in revenue of the TOP-5 operators of the mental health services market outstrips the growth of the market as a whole, which is associated with the active development of private clinics.
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Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the mental health services market in India in 2013-2019 in value terms
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the paid medical services market in India in 2013-2019 in value terms
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the number of registered diseases in India in 2013-2019, million people
Diagram 4. Dynamics of the number of registered diseases diagnosed with mental and behavioral disorders in India in 2013-2019, million people
Diagram 5. Dynamics of urban and rural population in India for January 1, 2010-2020
Chart 6. Age structure of the population of India as of January 1, 2015 - January 1, 2020, in % of the total population
Chart 7. Distribution by 20% quintile groups in India in 2014-2019, in % of the total population
Chart 8. Consumption in the market of mental health services per capita, 2015-2019
Chart 9. Geographical breakdown of mental health facilities in India, 2019
Chart 10. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2007-2019, Q1 2020, % to the previous year
Chart 11. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2015-2020 (Jan.-June), Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 12. Population dynamics in India as of January 1, 2010-2020, million people, %
Diagram 13. Population forecast in India for the period 2021-2024, million people
Diagram 14. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2014 - Q1 2020, % to the previous year
Diagram 15. Shares of the largest competitors in the mental health services market in 2019
Chart 16. TOP-5 market shares of mental health services in India in 2019
Diagram 17. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest operators of the mental health services market (TOP-5) in India, 2015-2019
Figure 18. Forecast of the incidence of mental and behavioral disorders in India in 2020-2024 under quarantine scenario 1
Chart 19. Forecast of spending per patient with mental and behavioral disorders in India 1-2020
Chart 20. India Mental Health Market Size Forecast 2020-2024 under quarantine scenario 1
Chart 21. Forecast of the incidence of mental and behavioral disorders in India in 2020-2024 with 2 quarantine scenarios
Chart 22. India Mental Health Market Size Forecast 2020-2024 under quarantine scenario 1
Tables
Table 1. Patients with mental and behavioral disorders per 100 people in the Union Territories of India in 2019
Table 2. Determining the maturity stage of the life cycle of the mental health services industry in India
Table 3. Expert forecasts for the decline in real GDP in India in 2020, %
Table 4. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the market for mental health services
Table 5. Main companies participating in the mental health care market in 2017
Table 6. Volume Index of GDP and Mental Health Services in India, 2006-2019
Table 7. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 8. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
Table 9. Forecast indicators for the basic and pessimistic scenarios for the development of the crisis, %
All reports