Forecast of the development of the market of medical masks
The relevance of research
Medical masks are disposable medical devices that cover the nose and mouth and provide a barrier to minimize the spread of airborne infections.
Purpose of the study
Analyzing the state of the medical mask market, assessing the market size, analyzing competitors, and identifying factors affecting the market
Content
Chapter 1. Economic Characteristics of the Medical Mask Market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Market Growth Rate
1.3. Market trends
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
1.9. Sales channels
1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine in connection with covid-2019
4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines
4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Economic Characteristics of the Medical Mask Market
1.1. Market size
Medical masks are disposable medical devices that cover the nose and mouth and provide a barrier to minimize the spread of airborne infections.
The Indian market for medical masks is dominated by domestic products in terms of value. In 2015-2019 the share of domestic products amounted to …% of the market volume.
...
1.2. Market Growth Rate
The market volume of medical masks in monetary terms during 2014-2017. grew, and in 2018-2019. was in stagnation. The maximum value in the period under review was 2017 with a market volume of … million Rs., which was associated with an increase in imports to India. Average annual growth rate in 2014-2019 amounted to …%.
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the market volume of medical masks 2015 - 2019, million Rs.
In physical terms, the average annual volume of consumption of this product in India in 2014-2019. grew at a lower rate – …% against …%. The explosive growth of the market volume in physical terms was recorded in 2017 to … million units, and then a decline to … million units followed. For 2018-2019 market contraction amounted to …%.
Diagram 2. Dynamics of consumption of medical masks in physical terms, 2014 - 2019, million pieces
1.3. Market trends
Consider the trends in the main components of the volume of the medical mask market in India.
Production volume of medical masks in India in 2014-2019 either grew or stagnated. In 2015-2018 the volume of production grew, but there was a slowdown in growth rates. In 2018-2019 The production of medical masks practically did not grow. However, in 2019 the value of the indicator amounted to … million Rs., which is …% more than in 2014. After the spread of the coronavirus, there was a lack of protective equipment.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, until mid-March 2020, the volume of serial production of medical masks in India was about ... million pieces per day, by July 2020, the volume of daily serial production of medical masks is ... million pieces. As of July 27, 2020, the maximum daily production of medical masks in India is … million pieces. At the same time, the daily requirement, according to the Ministry of Health, is ... million pieces.
...
Diagram 6. Dynamics of export of medical masks in monetary terms, 2015 - 2019
In ruble terms, the volume of exports of medical masks from India in 2019 amounted to … mln Rs., which exceeds the level of 2015 by …%
The bulk of the Indian market for medical masks is formed mainly by domestically produced products, which currently account for more than …%.
...
1.4. The main problems of the industry
The main challenges faced by Indian medical mask manufacturers in 2020 are:
Lack of materials for production. A protective mask, as a rule, consists of three layers: they are made from two types of non-woven materials - spunbond and meltblown. If one of them is excluded from the technology, then the filtering properties of the product will greatly decrease. Almost no meltblown was made in India, manufacturers mainly bought everything from abroad - in China, Taiwan and in some EU countries. In order to find alternative raw materials or other contractors, Indian organizations will need time.
The shortage provoked an explosive growth in raw materials.
Lack of production capacity. Previously, the increase in demand could be compensated by imports, but now there is no such possibility. The production lines of enterprises are designed to produce a certain amount of goods, which cannot be increased. In addition, additional costs are imposed on the process, for example, marriage.
...
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
The dynamics of the volume of consumption of medical masks is determined by:
trends in real incomes of the population (see section 2.2);
trends in the medical services market.
In 2015-2019 there is a systematic reduction in the number of medical organizations. For 5 years there was a reduction by …%.
Chart 11. Number of medical organizations in India, 2015-2019, units
At the same time, according to the annual statistical compilation of the Ministry of Health, in 2019 in India there were … thousand doctors and … million nurses and nurses. For 2015-2019 the number of medical personnel remained virtually unchanged.
...
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
The dynamics of the consumption of medical masks per capita in the study period was both positive and negative. In 2015-2018 an increase was noted. At the same time, in 2019, consumption decreased, but not significantly, by only “0,7%”. At the end of 2019, per capita consumption amounted to 2,6 Rs. Since 2014, the indicator has grown by 42,1%. The largest increase came in 2017, when medical masks began to be widely used outside of medical facilities. Average annual growth rate of the indicator value in 2014-2019 amounted to 6,0%.
Diagram 13. Consumption of medical masks per capita, 2014-2019, Rs./person
The growth in demand for medical masks in India began in January 2020, already in February it led to a shortage of goods. As Sergey Shulyak, CEO of DSM Group, explained, the situation is connected with high demand for goods from government agencies that buy them at cost. This trend has led to the fact that many non-core services began to sell protective masks.
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1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
The largest volume of production of medical masks among all federal districts in 2015-2019 located in the Central Union Territories. In 2019, this district accounted for about … million Rs. (75,3%).
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services (that is, intended for direct consumption) produced per year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation, regardless of the nationality of the factors of production used. It is the main, most complete official indicator of public welfare. The absolute and relative values of GDP give an idea of the general material well-being of the nation and the dynamics of its growth / decrease, since the higher the level of production, the higher the welfare of the country.
Chart 17 shows India's GDP growth rate from 2011 to 2019 at comparable prices (at 2016 prices).
Diagram 17. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2011-2019, Q1 2020, % to the previous year, trillion Rs.
The impact of the crisis that began in 2008 led to a decline in GDP by 7,8% in 2009, but then the growth rates were quite high until 2012 inclusive. In 2013-2014 there was a decrease in the annual GDP growth rate, and in 2015 the GDP dynamics turned into a negative zone, and in 2016 it was in stagnation. But in 2017-2018. there was an increase in the indicator by 1,5% and 2,3%, respectively. The volume of India's GDP for 2019 amounted to 110,0 trillion rupees at current prices. The index of the physical volume of GDP compared to 2018 amounted to 101,3%.
...
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
The balance of exports and imports in the market of medical masks is negative (the excess of imports over exports) throughout the analyzed period. Thus, the volume of medical masks imported from abroad is more than exported from India. This speaks to the low demand for Indian-made medical masks in overseas markets.
Diagram 24. Balance of exports and imports, 2015 - 2019, million Rs.
At the end of 2019, the largest volume of medical masks was exported to Ukraine (…%) and Kazakhstan (…%). In aggregate, the share of the main exporting countries of Indian products accounted for …%.
...
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
An economic crisis is a profound disruption of normal economic activity, which is accompanied by the destruction of habitual economic ties, a decrease in business activity, the inability to repay debts and the accumulation of debt obligations. This is a phenomenon of a market economy, repeating with a certain frequency, and depending on the scale, it can either concern a particular state or be of global importance. The crisis is accompanied by a sharp decline in production, bankruptcy of enterprises, a fall in the gross national product, a large-scale increase in unemployment, and often a depreciation of the national currency.
In the first half of 2020, many markets felt the impact of the pandemic and the onset of the economic crisis. If for most markets the current situation has affected negatively, the market for medical masks is currently at the stage of rapid growth.
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Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the market volume of medical masks 2015 - 2019, million Rs.
Diagram 2. Dynamics of consumption of medical masks in physical terms, 2014 - 2019, million pieces
Diagram 3. Dynamics of production volumes of medical masks in India, 2015 - 2019, mln ru
Diagram 4. The share of exports in production, 2015 - 2019, %
Diagram 5. Dynamics of export of medical masks in physical terms, 2015 - 2019, million pieces
Diagram 6. Dynamics of export of medical masks in monetary terms, 2015 - 2019
Diagram 7. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market of medical masks, 2015-2019, %
Diagram 8. The volume and dynamics of imports of medical masks in physical terms, 2015 - 2019, million units
Diagram 9. The volume and dynamics of imports of medical masks in monetary terms, 2015 - 2019
Figure 10. Industry life cycle stage
Chart 11. Number of medical organizations in India, 2015-2019, units
Diagram 12. Dynamics of the number of medical personnel in India, 2015-2019, thousand people
Diagram 13. Consumption of medical masks per capita, 2014-2019, Rs./person
Diagram 14. Sales channels, %
Chart 15. Revenue (net) from the sale of medical masks by union territories for 2015-2019, %
Chart 16. Production of medical masks in India by states of India, %, 2019
Diagram 17. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2011-2019, Q1 2020, % to the previous year, trillion Rs.
Chart 18. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2015-2020 (Jan-July), Rs. for 1 US dollar
Chart 19. Dynamics of the inflation rate in India, 2015-2020 (6 months), %
Diagram 20. Dynamics of the population of India, as of January 1, 2012-2020, million people, thousand people
Diagram 21. Population forecast in India for the period 2021-2024, million people
Chart 22. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2012-2019
Chart 23. Dynamics of the average interest rate on loans to legal entities, 2014-2020
Diagram 24. Balance of exports and imports, 2015 - 2019, million Rs.
Chart 25. Structure of exports by country in 2019
Chart 26. Shares of the largest competitors in the medical mask market in 2019
Diagram 27. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest manufacturers (TOP-5) of medical masks in India, million Rs., 2015-2019
Diagram 28. Forecast of the market size of medical masks in 2020 - 2024 – in case of a single quarantine scenario
Chart 29. Forecast of the market size of medical masks in 2020 - 2024 – in the scenario of two quarantines
Tables
Table 1. Data on tenders for the purchase of medical masks over Rs 1000 thousand, announced from 17.07.20/17.08.20/ to / /
Table 2. Dynamics of the production of medical masks in India by union territories, 2015 - 2019, million Rs.
Table 3. Expert forecasts for the decline in real GDP in India in 2020, %
Table 4. Industrial production index by state of India (in % of the previous year), 2015 - 2019
Table 5. Weighted average interest rates of credit institutions on loans to non-financial institutions in rupees (% per annum), 2014 - 2020
Table 6. STEP analysis of factors affecting the medical mask market
Table 7. Structure of imports of medical masks by importing countries in 2019
Table 8. Main companies participating in the medical mask market in 2019
Table 9. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 10. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
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