Forecast of the development of the civil aircraft market in India
The relevance of research
Civil aviation in the modern world, as before, is of great importance for humanity. This mode of transport has many advantages. It is characterized by the speed of movement, the ability to be in the right place for a minimum time period
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the civil aircraft market in India, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the civil aircraft market
Content
Chapter 1. Key Components of the Civil Aircraft Market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Growth rates of the civil aircraft market
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
1.4. Volume and dynamics of civil aircraft production
1.5. Import of civil aircraft. Volume and dynamics
1.6. Export of civil aircraft. Volume and dynamics
1.7. Share of exports in production
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Civil aircraft market trends
2.2. The main problems of the industry
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
2.7. Life cycle stage of the civil aircraft market
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
3.2. Social Components
3.3. Technological components
3.4. Political Components
3.5. STEP analysis of the civil aircraft market
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
4.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the civil aircraft market
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the civil aircraft market
5.5. Forecast for the development of the civil aircraft market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
6.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Key Components of the Civil Aircraft Market
1.1. Market size
At the end of 2020, the volume of the Indian civil aircraft market amounted to … pieces, having increased by …% compared to 2019. At the same time, 108 pcs. of which are...
As a promising competitive strategy for Indian aircraft manufacturing companies, it should be noted, in addition to projects ... Also important are cooperation projects for the supply of Indian titanium from ...
In India, the share of state influence in ...
We also note that extremely high …
1.2. Growth rates of the civil aircraft market
The growth rate of the civil aircraft market in the period 2013-2020 allow us to state a reduction in volume by …%: from … pcs. 2013 to ... pcs. in 2020
The biggest drop in the market occurred in … due to the reduction of … against the background of an increase in exports. When considering the market growth rates since 2015, we can conclude that the market ... For 2015-2020. market volume …%.
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
Since 2015, in India, the market at the level of …% has consolidated ... Previously, the figure was …%. After the crisis, Indian businesses ...
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the civil aircraft market, 2013–2020, %
1.4. Volume and dynamics of civil aircraft production
According to …, the production of civil aircraft decreased significantly during the crisis in 2015. In 2016-2019. production ..., however, pre-crisis ...
In 2020, the production of civil aircraft …% compared to 2019 and amounted to … units.
1.5. Import of civil aircraft. Volume and dynamics
In dollar terms, the volume of imports of civil aircraft from India in 2019 amounted to … billion US dollars, which became … In 2020, deliveries …%, but still remained at a high level …
Diagram 4. Volume and dynamics of civil aircraft imports, 2013–2020, mln USD
1.6. Export of civil aircraft. Volume and dynamics
The export of civil aircraft in value terms, as well as imports, showed … deliveries in 2019 – …%. It should be noted that in 2019, Indian-made aircraft accounted for only …% of the total volume... At the end of 2020, the volume of deliveries abroad amounted to … billion US dollars.
1.7. Share of exports in production
The share of exports in production is calculated by GidMarket on the basis of data on exports of Indian-made aircraft, excluding re-exports.
The share of exports in the civil aircraft market has … dynamics.
In 2013-2014 export of civil aircraft from India took .. production. In 2015-2016 the share of exports in the study period was the highest – …%. At the end of 2020, the share of exports in production amounted to …%, which is below the level of 2016 by … p.p.
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Civil aircraft market trends
Among the trends in the civil aircraft market, it should be noted:
...
2.2. The main problems of the industry
Here are some of the key challenges facing the industry:
...
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
During 2012-2017 India's population showed … dynamics. However, in 2018 the vector has changed – the population …
The current demographic situation in India is characterized by … (since 2017), which is accelerating, and migration growth, which is not ...
The resident population of India as of January 1, 2021, according to Rosstat’s preliminary estimate, amounted to … million people, which is … thousand people less than as of January 1, 2020. A larger reduction was observed in India in 2005 …
In general, according to the assessment of the cabinet of ministers, the population of India will decrease over the next four years, and the output by …
Rosstat predicts that the birth rate (the number of children per woman) will decrease from … to … by 2025.
Earlier, Rosstat published a demographic forecast up to 2036. The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in the country's population to … million people. by early 2036. The most pessimistic is …
...
At the same time, the dynamics of real incomes of the population during 2014-2017. of the population …, so in 2014 real incomes decreased …% compared to 2013, in 2015 – …% compared to 2014, in 2016 – the situation worsened even more – decrease …
According to Rosstat, the real disposable money income of Indians in 2020 decreased by …% compared to 2019. The consequences of the covid-19 pandemic and quarantine restrictions were a decrease in …
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
Estimation of civil aircraft consumption volume was made by GidMarket analysts based on the ratio of market volume to …
The highest consumption of civil aircraft per capita in the study period was noted in … year with an indicator of … units/person. At the end of 2020, the indicator amounted to … pcs/person, which is lower than the record consumption of …
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
...
Diagram 10. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the civil aircraft industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
Current liquidity characterizes the extent to which all short-term liabilities of an enterprise ... In the study period (except 2015 and 2019), the indicator was within ... times, which is ...
Absolute liquidity shows what part of short-term liabilities can be repaid in … In 2016-2018 and 2020. indicator was...
In general, the analysis of sectoral financial ratios of the civil aircraft industry shows …
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
In 2020, civil aircraft were produced only in ... regions: in ... regions ... aircraft (...% of total production), in ... The circle of civil aircraft manufacturers is quite limited, the companies are located in different regions.
...
Diagram 12. Compactness of placement of companies in the industry in certain regions, pcs.
2.7. Life cycle stage of the civil aircraft market
...
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
India GDP
GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services produced ...
The dynamics of India's GDP is decisive in the vector of development of the entire economy of the country and determines …
In 2012-2014 the GDP growth rate was positive, but constantly declining, and in 2015 it was less than zero. In 2015, which was the peak of the crisis in the state, the decline in GDP amounted to …% compared to the previous year of 2014, and since the dynamics of GDP is directly proportional to the well-being of citizens, this indicates …
...
In 2020, the decline in India's GDP, according to the second estimate of Rosstat, amounted to …%. This is the biggest drop in GDP since 2009, when the country's economy shrank by …%. According to Rosstat, the decline in GDP is mainly due to …
India’s GDP, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, in January-May 2021 grew by …% compared to the corresponding period of 2020, while in April 2021, against the backdrop of a low base, the jump in GDP is estimated at …
...
3.2. Social Components
...
3.3. Technological components
...
3.4. Political Components
...
3.5. STEP analysis of the civil aircraft market
According to the results of the performed STEP-analysis, macro-environment factors have a greater influence on the development of the market.
Significant negative factors include...
Table 3. STEP analysis of factors affecting the civil aircraft market
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
...
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
As stated above, the leaders of the civil aviation industry throughout the world over the past decades have been companies ... The dominance of these companies in the market was achieved as a result of mergers and acquisitions in the aviation industry ...
The largest competitors in the Indian civil aircraft market are … … in 2020 occupied …% of the Indian market, …%. Other players take...
In terms of competitive concentration, the market belongs to … (Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI >…).
4.3. Competition from substitute products
...
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
...
In the first half of 2020, many markets felt the impact of the pandemic and the onset of the economic crisis. Let us analyze the data on the impact of recent crises on the civil aircraft market (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014).
Table 6. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
The most significant difference between the current crisis and the previous ones is…
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
Since the introduction of restrictive measures in India related to the spread of a new coronavirus infection, the state has been providing the necessary support measures to business representatives who have encountered objective difficulties. Some of them are systemic and apply to all organizations and individual entrepreneurs, while others are intended only for companies and businessmen working in certain sectors of the economy.
The aviation industry was not included in the lists ...
The measures described in the table are the support measures available in the industry under study and which have not expired.
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the civil aircraft market
...
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the civil aircraft market
...
5.5. Forecast for the development of the civil aircraft market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
...
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
...
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
...
6.3. Timing of forecasting
...
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of the volume of the civil aircraft market, 2013–2020, pcs.
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the civil aircraft market, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 3. Dynamics of production volumes of civil aircraft in India, 2013–2020, pcs.
Diagram 4. Volume and dynamics of civil aircraft imports, 2013–2020, mln USD
Diagram 5. Volume and dynamics of civil aircraft exports, 2013–2020, USD million
Chart 6. Share of exports in production, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 7. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2012-2021, million people
Diagram 8. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, % to the previous year, 2012-1 half a year. 2021
Diagram 9. Volume of consumption in the civil aircraft market per capita, 2013–2020, units/person
Diagram 10. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the civil aircraft industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
Diagram 11. Current liquidity (total coverage) for the civil aircraft industry for 2015–2020, times
Diagram 12. Compactness of placement of companies in the industry in certain regions, pcs.
Diagram 13. Industry life cycle stage
Chart 14. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-May 2021, % to the previous year
Diagram 15. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, Rs. for 1 US dollar, 2016-Sep. 2021
Diagram 16. The number of international and domestic passenger air transportation in the number of passengers, 2010-2020, billion people
Diagram 17. Shares of the largest competitors in the civil aircraft market in 2020, %
Diagram 18. Forecast of market volume in 2021-2025, pcs.
Tables
Table 1. Gross margin of the civil aircraft industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, %
Table 2. Absolute liquidity of the civil aircraft industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, times
Table 3. STEP analysis of factors affecting the civil aircraft market
Table 4. Main companies participating in the civil aircraft market in 2020
Table 5. Advantages and disadvantages of trains and aircraft
Table 6. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 7. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed as of April 21.09.2021,
Table 8. Forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy
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