Forecast for the development of the semi-finished meat market
The relevance of research
Currently, it has become popular to prepare dishes from semi-finished meat products. Making life easier for busy consumers - steaks, roasts, shanks for roasting, etc. For consumers, this makes the cooking process quick and convenient
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the meat semi-finished products market, assessment of the market volume, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the market of meat semi-finished products
Content
Chapter 1. Economic characteristics of the semi-finished meat market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Market Growth Rate
1.3. Market trends
1.4. The main problems of the industry
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
1.9. Sales channels
1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
2.2. Social Components
2.3. Technological components
2.4. Political Components
2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine in connection with covid-2019
4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines (when quarantine is repeated in autumn)
4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry in the context of coronavirus
Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
5.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Economic characteristics of the semi-finished meat market
1.1. Market size
According to the GidMarket calculation based on the data of Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service, at the end of 2019, the volume of the semi-finished meat market in India amounted to … thousand tons, …
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A feature of the Indian market of semi-finished meat products is the dominant share of domestic production, while the share of imported products is minimal.
Chart 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the semi-finished meat market, 2013-2019, Jan.-Apr. 2020, %
1.2. Market Growth Rate
The growth rate of the semi-finished meat market in 2013-2019 allow us to state...
At the same time, the volume dynamics of the Indian market is predominantly linear.
In general, the distribution of shares between the federal districts in terms of production volume in physical terms is quite stable.
The distribution and dynamics of the shares of federal districts in terms of production volume in physical terms can be explained by several factors: the population size, the concentration of enterprises producing meat products, the proximity and size of the raw material base for this industry. As can be seen from Diagram 3, in general, a certain bias is observed in India - an uneven distribution of meat processing and producing regions.
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1.3. Market trends
The key trends in the semi-finished meat market include:
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The market for semi-finished meat products is currently under the influence of changes in consumer behavior patterns, which can no longer be ignored when developing new products and bringing them to the market. Each manufacturer needs to look for a suitable assortment structure for him, based on the chosen sales boundaries, price segment, characteristics of the target audience, production capabilities and marketing competencies. At the same time, it is expected that enterprises offering a wide range of semi-finished products and high-quality products of deep processing will be the most stable in the strategic perspective.
1.4. The main problems of the industry
Consider the main problems hindering the development of the Indian market of semi-finished meat products:
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The uncertainty of the economic situation, accompanied by political factors (changes in the Constitution, change of the Government, etc.), anti-Indian sanctions that affect the decline in investment.
Entrepreneurial assessments of the uncertainty of the macroeconomic situation are interpreted as the absence of predictable ""game conditions"" and the inability to determine the direction of regulatory impacts, including tax and other changes, even in the foreseeable future. Such a limiting factor shortens the period of strategic planning for the development of companies.
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The need to improve the legislation on technical regulation in the meat industry. According to the current technical regulation, there are now no threshold values and deviations for meat production, which makes any product vulnerable - it can easily turn out to be “fake”, according to the supervisory authority.
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According to experts, the growth potential for the domestic Indian market is almost exhausted. For the development of the meat processing industry, it is necessary to increase the export component, to enter new markets. In addition, to increase profitability, enterprises should use a full-cycle strategy, including their own livestock and poultry farming.
1.5. Industry life cycle stage
The market for semi-finished meat products is at the stage of renewed growth, which lies in the plane of popularizing the use of chilled types of semi-finished meat products, expanding their product line. Despite the Indian traditions of eating meat, partly due to natural and climatic conditions, the use of meat semi-finished products until recently was limited by the presence on the market of mostly frozen products, its very small assortment range (mainly concentrated on meat and vegetable semi-finished products, semi-finished products containing dough) , a longer cooking period due to the need to pre-defrost some types of semi-finished products.
Currently, the market is characterized by a new stage of growth, due to a change in the consumer function and taste habits of the population, a reduction in the time for cooking without losing the biological value and usefulness of the finished dish.
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At present, the description of the semi-finished meat market can be made into a curve of new upswings. As a rule, the curve of new rises has products whose sales stop growing, but after a small improvement, the appearance of additional useful properties, or a change in consumer attitudes towards the product, sales increase again.
Market growth is driven by the following factors:
Changing the diet of the population, the trend towards a healthy lifestyle and a balanced diet. Eating semi-finished meat products, provided that the effect of a “homemade healthy dish” is maintained.
The development of storage and processing technologies, the emergence of a new type of packaging. Vacuum containers are being replaced by new types of hermetic packaging, and, first of all, these are “gas medium” and “protective atmosphere”.
The introduction of a food embargo on the supply of meat contributed to the development of India's own meat production. At present, the interest of meat producers in the further deepening of its processing is increasing in order to increase the profitability of the industry. Manufacturers are working on new technologies for processing products, developing original recipes and packaging, expanding the range, and considering storage and transportation issues.
The industry of processing meat into semi-finished products is characterized by relatively low requirements for the material and technical base of production, and relatively low ""entrance barriers"", which allows it to be organized on almost any basis. This approach is often used by retail chains and wholesale meat companies, organizing their own workshops for the production of semi-finished meat products.
The accelerated pace of life of the country's population, the increase in the number of working women.
Constantly expanding product range and improving its quality.
1.6. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
Potential consumers of semi-finished meat products are almost the entire population of India, and the dynamics of the volume of consumption of semi-finished meat products determine the trends in the indicator of real incomes of the population.
Population of India
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Diagram 7. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2012-2020, million people
Real money income of the population of India
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1.7. Estimated consumption per capita
Estimation of the volume of consumption of semi-finished meat products per capita was made by GidMarket on the basis of the ratio of the volume of the Indian market of semi-finished meat products in physical terms to the population of India.
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At the same time, the main factors of influence include: the accelerated rhythm of life of the population of the country; trend towards a healthy lifestyle and redistribution of demand from frozen to chilled natural semi-finished products; constantly replenished range of semi-finished meat products, due to the struggle for the consumer; development of storage and processing technologies, the emergence of a new type of packaging; development of the restaurant business, steakhouses, grill bars, burger and other restaurant formats; creation by retailers of their own meat shops for the production of both chilled meat semi-finished products and finished meat products, taking into account the taste preferences of consumers, etc.
1.8. The pace of technological change and product innovation
Let's consider the technological changes inherent in the market of semi-finished meat products in India.
In the production of semi-finished meat products, the main factor is the technology of meat processing and the technology of meat storage. Today, very strict requirements are imposed on the quality of raw materials, technical and sanitary standards of production and storage, and on finished meat products.
Technological re-equipment of meat industry companies is a determining factor in the increase in the volume and quality of finished meat products.
At the same time, modern technologies make it possible to increase the taste and nutritional values of the product in accordance with the scientifically based theory of balanced nutrition, as well as to master new types of production, such as the production of quick-frozen meat dishes using the ultra-fast freezing method.
An important factor in the production of semi-finished meat products is the development of new meat storage technologies. This applies to both the storage of raw materials in production and the storage of finished products in warehouses and store shelves.
Currently, there is a huge amount of packaging materials that allow you to increase the shelf life without changing the taste and nutritional qualities of the product. These include:
Modified Atmosphere (MAP) or ""atmospheric"" packaging.
Vacuum packaging
Packing in trays
Vacuum skin-packing
Poultry packaging on a substrate
Heat shrink
Packaging for frozen semi-finished products
For packaging of frozen small-piece products, such as fish sticks, dumplings, dumplings, etc., as a rule, different types of plastic film bags are used. Polypropylene and polyethylene bags laminated with lavsan (PET) are resistant to low temperatures, so that products can be stored and transported in freezers.
In addition to the types of packaging of meat semi-finished products discussed above, companies use modern meat cooling methods that contribute to the speed of meat cooling and reduce its weight loss: a two-stage cooling method; ultra-fast cooling by showering in tunnel-type chambers, as well as methods of freezing and freezing meat.
Meat and meat products are frozen in air, in salt solutions, in boiling refrigerants, in contact with the cooled metal plates of freezers. There are two methods of freezing meat in air: single-phase and two-phase. The single-phase method consists in freezing fresh meat immediately. The two-phase method consists in the fact that fresh meat is pre-cooled to a temperature not higher than +4 ºС, and already chilled meat is frozen to a temperature of −8 ºС and lower. Freezing of meat of cattle, pork and lamb is most often carried out according to a two-phase method. In industrial conditions, depending on the speed of the process, slow, intensive and fast freezing is used.
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1.9. Sales channels
Consider the main channels for the sale of semi-finished meat products to the population:
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In addition, it should be noted that in most regions, preference is more often given to products of local enterprises due to the fact that quite often their price, even for products of a high price segment, is lower.
It is also important that the consumption of various types of semi-finished products is presented heterogeneously and depends on the trade format. Dumplings and cutlets are sold in almost all types of outlets.
Pancakes, manti, minced meat, stuffed vegetables, meat rolls and a range of sliced meats (goulash, azu, entrecote, languettes and others) are more in demand in the markets and supermarkets. Ready-made main courses can be purchased mainly in supermarkets.
Thus, according to experts, among the most promising in terms of sales volumes and growth rates, the segment of consumers of semi-finished meat products includes: federal retail chains, federal restaurant chains and own retail chains (branded display cases, counters in non-chain stores).
1.10. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
To determine the compactness of the location of companies in the industry, let's consider the production volumes for the union territories and determine the leading Indian states in the production of semi-finished meat products.
Table 1. Dynamics of the production of semi-finished meat products by union territories, 2017-2019, Q1 2020, thousand tons
Once again, it is worth noting that domestic products dominate the semi-finished meat market, which is explained by the higher profitability of production, for which the sources of raw materials and the consumption market lie within the same geographical area.
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Thus, the distribution of companies in the industry cannot be called compact across the states of India, but it should be noted that the largest volumes of production are concentrated in 2 federal districts.
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Chapter 2. General economic environment
2.1. Economic components
Macroeconomic factors affect the dynamics of all sectors of the Indian economy, including the sale of food products.
Dynamics of India's GDP
The dynamics of India's GDP is an indicator of the country's economic development. GDP has an impact on the development of all sectors and markets of the economy, as well as the level of effective demand of the population.
Dollar rate
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Industrial production in India
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Indian Retail Turnover
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Retail Business Confidence Index
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The share of meat products in the commodity structure of retail trade turnover
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Diagram 18. Dynamics of the share of meat products in the commodity structure of retail trade turnover, 2015-2019, %
The share of semi-finished meat products in the assortment structure of retail sales of meat and poultry products
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Dynamics of electricity tariffs
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Agricultural production for all categories of farms in India
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2.2. Social Components
Among the social components influencing the semi-finished meat market are the population of India due to the fact that almost the entire population of the country is potentially consumers of these products, as well as the level of real money incomes of the population. These components are discussed in more detail in Section 1.6. of the present study.
Consumer Confidence Index
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Healthy lifestyle trend
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The culture of consumption of semi-finished meat products
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Modern trends in the development of large cities and changes in human lifestyle
Today, we can note an increase in the temporary load of a working person associated with his work activity and personal life. At the same time, in recent years there have been strong changes in the social sphere, which in turn change the attitude towards food consumption. These include factors such as a decrease in the number of people in one family, an increase in the number of single people, an imbalance of time towards the working day, increasing labor mobility, a lack of culinary skills and a desire to acquire them. The positive influence of the factor.
2.3. Technological components
The backwardness of the material and technical base of production
Until recently, most types of equipment were purchased abroad, and today the price for it has increased greatly. Equipment that meets the requirements of modern meat processing production is mainly purchased for foreign currency, which is not available today for some manufacturers.
Introduction of new highly efficient ways of packaging and storage of products
The impact of technological and innovative factors on the Indian semi-finished meat market is the introduction of modern processing and storage technologies, as well as advanced packaging materials for the production of biologically valuable, environmentally friendly and affordable products.
Long payback period for agricultural projects
In the case of a full cycle of semi-finished meat production from self-raising livestock (pigs, chickens, cows, etc.) to their sale in retail, the payback period of such a project will be at least 5 years. Things are a little better if the enterprise is not created from scratch, that is, funds are invested in the modernization of existing capacities. But even with such a scheme, payback does not occur earlier than in 2-3 years. For comparison, investing in securities and other financial instruments begins to bring tangible income in the first month of the project.
2.4. Political Components
Licensing and other permission
In accordance with Article 12 of the Federal Law of May 04.05.2011, 99 N 18.02.2020-FZ (as amended on February 28, 2020) “On Licensing Certain Types of Activities” (as amended) dated March , , a list of types of activities for which a license is required . The production of semi-finished meat products is not included in this list, therefore, a license is not required to engage in this activity. Lack of licensing is a positive influence of the factor.
To open a workshop for the production of semi-finished meat products, the following documents and permits are required:
Certificate of registration of individual entrepreneur or LLC;
The choice of premises for a workshop that meets all the norms and requirements of the SES and Rospotrebnadzor, fire supervision. In particular, compliance with the requirements of the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules SP 2.3.6.1079-01 ""Sanitary and Epidemiological Requirements for Public Catering Organizations, the Production and Handling of Food Products and Food Raw Materials"" (approved by the Chief State Sanitary Doctor of India on November 6, 2001) with the latest changes and additions dated June 10, 2016; SanPin 2.3.2.1078-01. ""Hygienic requirements for the safety and nutritional value of food products"" (approved by
Chief Medical Officer of India November 6, 2001) as last amended July 6, 2011;
Certification of all types of manufactured products and compliance with GOST 32951-2014 “Meat and meat-containing semi-finished products. General technical conditions"". The standard applies to meat and meat-containing semi-finished products intended for sale in trade and catering networks. Semi-finished products are perishable products, therefore they must comply with the requirements of the standard, be produced according to the technological instructions regulating the production process, in compliance with sanitary rules for meat industry enterprises and hygienic requirements for the safety and nutritional value of food products. For quality control and acceptance of semi-finished products, acceptance and periodic tests are carried out.
Difficulties in formalizing legal documents and mandatory certification of manufactured products are a negative influence of the factor.
Instability of the political situation against the backdrop of developments on a global scale, anti-Indian sanctions, shifts.
State regulation is a set of centralized administrative influence on the activities of the economy sector through the formation of a regulatory and legislative framework.
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State programs and measures aimed at supporting domestic producers of agricultural products
Such programs indirectly affect the semi-finished meat market, contributing to the creation of a raw material base for the industry, here are some of them:
On a permanent basis and throughout India, there is a system of taxation for agricultural producers (single agricultural tax) (SAT) - this is a special tax regime that has been developed and introduced specifically for agricultural producers (agricultural producers are exempt from income tax, property tax, VAT, etc.).
The Government of India has introduced subsidies to reimburse part of the direct costs for the creation and modernization of agro-industrial complex. These include:
Grants for the development of peasant farms. Provided on a competitive basis for the purpose of acquiring agricultural land, developing and summing up communication systems, building economic facilities.
The grant implies strict accountability of the recipient on the intended use of funds.
Credit funds to reimburse interest costs. Provided exclusively for the modernization of the economy.
Subsidizing leasing taken for the purchase of agricultural equipment and machinery.
Compensation of expenses for the construction of objects of the family's peasant economy.
One time grant. It is provided for the arrangement of a farm: the purchase or construction of housing, the purchase of passenger-and-freight transport, and the conduct of communications.
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Lack of state support for agriculture
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2.5. STEP-analysis of the market
Let's carry out a STEP-analysis of the factors influencing the market of semi-finished meat products in India, and, accordingly, the demand and income of market operators.
Table 3. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the semi-finished meat market
As a result of the STEP-analysis, we can draw the following conclusions about the impact of macro factors on the semi-finished meat market. All considered groups of factors had a multi-vector influence on the development of the market.
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Chapter 3. Assessment of the degree of competition
3.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
Let us consider the scale of competition in the global market using the example of the volume of world production of various types of meat.
Poultry meat
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Pork
The share of pork is …% of the total meat consumption in the world.
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According to GidMarket analysts, regional and local types of competition are more pronounced due to the fact that in most regional cities preference is still given to the products of local enterprises, since quite often their price, even for products of a high price segment, is lower. Moreover, each region has its own manufacturers that meet the demand from the population of the region.
3.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
Among the main competitors in the semi-finished meat market, we can single out companies with a full production cycle - from growing grain and producing feed, to animal husbandry, poultry farming and further processing of products; meat processing enterprises; retailers are large retail chains selling under their own brands. Partly these are the own meat processing shops of retail chains, partially - products made to order for a specific retail chain.
The relative ease of production of semi-finished meat products leads to high competition, with the largest players in the semi-finished meat market located mainly in …
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Thus, the leaders showing the maximum revenue from the sale of semi-finished products are federal retail chains - ""XXX"" ...
The assessment of the share of the largest competitors in the market of semi-finished meat products in India was carried out by GidMarket using data on their total revenue. At the same time, an adjustment was made taking into account the fact that the proceeds from the sale of semi-finished meat products occupy a different share depending on the category of the participant (retail, animal husbandry, meat processing, etc.) in the total income of the enterprise.
According to the results of the analysis, the TOP-10 semi-finished meat market operators are …
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Estimation of market shares is complicated by the existing error, which is associated with the impossibility of dividing the share of manufacturers between the sale of semi-finished products and other categories of their products.
Consider the profiles of companies participating in the semi-finished meat market in 2019.
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The dynamics of the total revenue of the TOP-5 enterprises producing, among other things, semi-finished meat products, is linear. At the same time, it should be noted that market operators selling semi-finished meat products are the largest retailers that produce meat products in their own workshops, as well as diversified agricultural holdings of a full production cycle, whose activities include the production of semi-finished meat products, as a result, Diagram 28 shows the dynamics their total revenue in all areas of activity, including the production of semi-finished meat products.
3.3. Competition from substitute products
Taking into account that semi-finished meat products include natural semi-finished products (bishteks, entrecote, langet, goulash, lamb stew, pork stew, azu, shish kebab, escalope, schnitzel, etc.); chopped semi-finished products (cutlets, meatballs, schnitzels, zrazy, nuggets, etc.); breaded semi-finished products (rump steak, pork chops, pork chop schnitzel, brains in breadcrumbs, etc.); chopped meat; semi-finished products containing meat (meat and vegetable: stuffed peppers, cabbage rolls, meat and vegetable cutlets); semi-finished products containing dough (pancakes, dumplings, dumplings, ravioli, manti, etc.), then, first of all, in the market of meat semi-finished products, competition between the above product groups can be distinguished. At the same time, such competition does not affect the distribution of shares between these groups of goods and is expressed not so much in the taste or nutritional values of semi-finished meat products, but in the ratio of consumer properties and price.
In addition, competition for meat (meat-containing) semi-finished products (OKVED 2 - (10.13.4) is made up of products from the general group OKVED 2 (10.13) - ""Production of products from meat of slaughter animals and poultry meat"":
10.13.1 - ""Production of salted, boiled, baked, smoked, dried and other meat"";
10.13.2 - ""Production of sausages"";
10.13.3 - ""Production of meat (meat-containing) canned food"";
10.13.5 - “Production of culinary meat (meat-containing) products;
10.13.6 - ""Manufacture of other food products from meat or meat food by-products"";
10.13.7 - ""Production of flour and pellets from meat and meat products""
At the same time, on the one hand, sausages, canned meat, culinary meat products, processed meat (salted, boiled, smoked, dried, etc.) are the basis of the diet for most Indians, which, in general, helps to simplify the cooking process. ready meals and snacks. On the other hand, the trend towards a healthy lifestyle, eating natural semi-finished meat products with greater usefulness and value allows semi-finished meat products, especially in the segment of chilled products, to create serious competition for sausages, meat (meat-containing) canned food, processed meat. This trend is confirmed by the growing share of chilled products in the overall structure of meat (meat-containing) semi-finished products.
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Chapter 4 Industry Forecasts
4.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
In the first half of 2020, many markets felt the impact of the pandemic and the onset of the economic crisis.
Let us analyze the data on the impact of recent crises on the semi-finished meat market (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014).
Chart 28. Dynamics of the volume of production of semi-finished meat products in India, 2006-2019, Jan-Apr 2020, thousand tons, %
In an effort to maintain and consolidate their positions in 2014-2016, market operators are developing new products. Major players in this segment have expanded their product range with complex recipes, combination products and ready meals. This led to a change in the structure of sales of semi-finished meat products (for example, cutlets began to be replaced not only by the usual steaks, zrazy, meatballs, meatballs, but also by ready-made dishes cooked according to old recipes, or dishes related to national cuisines). Another actively developing segment of chilled semi-finished products during this period was products in marinades and sauces. Marinades and sauces allow not only to expand the range, but also to extend the shelf life of the product, increase the yield of products, improve conventional products and create new types of products with different tastes that cannot be reproduced at home.
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4.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
In accordance with Government Decree No. 03 dated April 2020, 434, a list of sectors of the Indian economy has been approved that have been most affected in the context of the deteriorating situation as a result of the spread of a new coronavirus infection. These industries included air transportation, airport activities, trucking; culture, organization of leisure and entertainment; physical culture and health-improving activities and sports; activities of travel agencies and other organizations in the field of tourism; hotel business; public catering, organizations of additional education and non-state educational institutions; organizing conferences and exhibitions; activities for the provision of personal services to the population (repair, laundry, dry cleaning, hairdressing and beauty salon services). A little later, on April 13 and 18, 2020, this list was supplemented with the position “Activities in the field of film demonstration”, section 10 “Dental practice” was added, and the activities of museums and zoos were added to the section “Culture, leisure and entertainment”. In addition, a new section “Retail sale of non-food products” has appeared in the list, including, among other things, trade in cars, motor vehicles and motorcycles, parts, assemblies and accessories for them, general goods, information and communication equipment, cultural and entertainment goods, textiles, clothing and footwear.
It should be noted that a significant part of the support measures announced by the president and the government concern only the industries that the government has identified as the most affected. That is, benefits apply only to legal entities and individual entrepreneurs whose main activity code (OKVED) specified in the unified state register (EGRLE) is included in the government list of such industries.
At the same time, meat and semi-finished meat production enterprises, full-cycle meat processing plants, and, in general, agricultural enterprises and enterprises processing agricultural products are not included in the list of so-called affected organizations that suffered financial and material losses from the introduction of the self-isolation regime.
The table below shows the measures of state support for companies in the semi-finished meat market in the following areas:
Only 1 support measure aimed specifically at agricultural enterprises: preferential loans for agricultural exporters;
Support measures for 95 systemically important enterprises and holdings of the agro-industrial complex, approved in accordance with the protocol of the Government Commission on Improving the Sustainability of the Indian Economy dated April 24, 2020 No. 9kv.
General support measures for SME staff and others, applicable to all organizations in India.
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4.3. Studying scenarios for the development of the industry under quarantine conditions due to covid-2019:
4.3.1. Single Quarantine Scenario (according to the Chinese release schedule)
Forecasting the development of the semi-finished meat market in India is impossible without understanding the economic situation in the country, as well as the impact of the spread of the covid-19 virus and the measures taken.
Further development of the semi-finished meat market in India will largely be determined by the general economic condition of the state, the dynamics of real incomes of the population and the pace of implementation of investment projects in the field of meat processing and related industries (meat and feed production).
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Considering the above forecasts for meat production in 2020, as well as the existing trends in consumer demand and its shift towards chilled semi-finished meat products and semi-finished products of a high degree of readiness, including due to the displacement of the share of sausages and deli meats from the diet , switching demand in the consumption of natural semi-finished meat products from more expensive types to cheaper ones (such as pork and poultry meat), the flow of consumer preferences into democratic price segments (middle and below average), the growth of turkey consumption, …
In addition, it should be taken into account that in the current economic conditions, the industry under study seeks to balance the offer in terms of assortment and prices, optimize distribution channels and logistics, and increase the processing base to deepen the processing of raw materials and increase the production of semi-finished products (including chilled semi-finished products in the assortment ).
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4.3.2. Scenario of two quarantines (when quarantine is repeated in autumn)
Despite the impact of the pandemic, it should be noted that meat and semi-finished meat products are the main components of the population's diet. The share of consumer spending on these products, according to experts, is not less than …%.
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According to GidMarket's forecast, under the scenario of two quarantines, the growth rate of the market volume will slow down slightly compared to the scenario of one quarantine.
4.4. Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry in the context of coronavirus
Let us give examples of business restructuring options in the semi-finished meat market that Indian producers plan to carry out, taking into account the prospects for changes in consumer demand, and also identify general trends in business restructuring in the industry in the context of the coronavirus.
Holding xxx
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GC ""XXX""
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XXX
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Group of companies ""XXX""
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In general, the trends in business restructuring in the industry in the context of the coronavirus are as follows:
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Chapter 5 Forecasting Methodology
5.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
Modern statistical forecasting methods are used, taking into account the actual dynamics of the industry and the impact of the current and projected general economic situation in connection with the spread of the covid-19 virus.
In addition, when compiling the forecast, changes in real incomes of the population, trends in consumer preferences in a crisis, development forecasts and the degree of impact of other factors affecting the industry are taken into account.
5.2. Sources of information for forecasting
Industry volume over the past 7-8 years
Industry dynamics in 2008-2009, in 2013-2019*
Dynamics of macroeconomic indicators over the past 8-9 years
Current public assistance plans
Databases of the State Statistics Committee of India
Indian Revenue Service databases
India Customs databases
Open sources (websites, portals)
Issuer reporting
Company websites
Media Archives
Regional and federal media
Insider sources
Specialized analytical portals
5.3. Timing of forecasting
The forecast belongs to the medium-term category - 5 years (2020-2024)
Diagrams
Chart 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the semi-finished meat market, 2013-2019, Jan.-Apr. 2020, %
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the market volume of semi-finished meat products in India, 2013-2019, Jan.-Apr. 2020, thousand tons
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the structure of the volume of production of semi-finished meat products in the Union Territories, 2017-2019, Q1 2020, %
Chart 4. Forecast dynamics of India's GDP, 2020-2023, % to the previous year
Diagram 5. Forecast dynamics of real money incomes of the population of India, 2020-2023, % to the previous year
Figure 6. Stage of the life cycle of the semi-finished meat market
Diagram 7. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2012-2020, million people
Diagram 8. Dynamics of real money income of the population of India, 2012-2019, % to the previous year
Diagram 9. The volume of consumption of semi-finished meat products per capita in India, 2013-2019, kg / person in year
Diagram 10. The structure of the main channels for the sale of semi-finished meat products,%
Diagram 11. Regional structure of semi-finished meat production, 2019, %
Diagram 12. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions, 2019, %
Diagram 13. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-2019, % to the previous year
Chart 14. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2015-2019, Jan-Jun 2020, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Chart 15. Dynamics of industrial production in India, 2015-2019, Jan-March 2020, % to the previous year
Diagram 16. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, 2013 - 2019, January-March 2020, % to the previous year
Diagram 17. Dynamics of the index of entrepreneurial confidence in retail trade, 2017-2019, Q2 2020, quarterly, %
Diagram 18. Dynamics of the share of meat products in the commodity structure of retail trade turnover, 2015-2019, %
Diagram 19. Dynamics of the share of semi-finished meat products in the assortment structure of retail sales of meat and poultry products, 2015-2019, %
Chart 20. Index of agricultural production for all categories of farms in India, 2013-2019, % to the previous year, in comparable prices
Diagram 21. Dynamics of the consumer confidence index, 2017-2019, Q2 2020, quarterly, %
Diagram 22. Leading countries in the production of poultry meat in 2019, million tons
Figure 23. Number of pigs by country in 2019, million head
Chart 24. TOP-5 countries production in 2019, million tons
Diagram 25. Shares of the largest competitors in the semi-finished meat market, 2019, %
Diagram 26. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest operators of the semi-finished meat market (TOP-5) in India, 2015-2019, billion Rs.
Diagram 27. Distribution of shares by revenue (net) from sales of categories of production of products from meat of slaughter animals and poultry meat, 2019, %
Chart 28. Dynamics of the volume of production of semi-finished meat products in India, 2006-2019, Jan-Apr 2020, thousand tons, %
Diagram 29. Forecast of the market volume of semi-finished meat products in 2020 - 2024 – under the scenario of one quarantine, thousand tons
Diagram 30. Forecast of the market volume of semi-finished meat products in 2020 - 2024 – under the scenario of two quarantines, thousand tons
Tables
Table 1. Dynamics of the production of semi-finished meat products by union territories, 2017-2019, Q1 2020, thousand tons
Table 2. Average producer tariffs for electricity in India at the end of the period in 2017-2019, rupees per unit of measure, CPI for electricity supply services, %
Table 3. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the semi-finished meat market
Table 4. Main companies participating in the semi-finished meat market in 2019
Table 5. Profiles of the main companies participating in the semi-finished meat market in 2019
Table 6. Production of meat food products, including poultry, 2017-2019, units rev.
Table 7. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 8. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
Table 9. Forecast indicators of the Ministry of Economic Development, updated amid the crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic
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