Forecast for the development of the apple market in India
The relevance of research
Seed-bearing species constitute the main group of fruit plants. Its most important representatives are apple, pear and quince. They occupy a major place in horticulture and have a huge number of varieties used in the production, the apple tree is the most common pome crop in India.
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the apple market in India, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the apple market
Content
Chapter 1. Key components of the apple market
1.1. Market size
1.2. Growth rate of the apple market
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
1.4. Volume and dynamics of apple production
1.5. Import of apples. Volume and dynamics
1.6. Export of apples. Volume and dynamics
1.7. Share of exports in production
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Apple Market Trends
2.2. The main problems of the industry
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
2.7. Apple Market Life Cycle Stage
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
3.2. Social Components
3.3. Technological components
3.4. Political Components
3.5. STEP-analysis of the apple market
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
4.3. Competition from substitute products
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the apple market
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the apple market
5.5. Forecast for the development of the apple market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
6.3. Timing of forecasting
Research excerpt
Chapter 1. Key components of the apple market
1.1. Market size
According to the … Ministry of Agriculture of India, at the end of 2020, the volume of the apple market in India amounted to … thousand tons.
In India, due to the wide variety of soil and climatic conditions, due, without exaggeration, to the vast territories of the country and the coverage of 4 climatic zones, a very large number of the most diverse …
The pome species constitute the main group... Its most important representatives are apple, pear... The structure of pome cultivation in India is shown in Diagram 1.
Diagram 1. Structure of pome crops cultivation in India
Apple tree is a genus of deciduous trees and shrubs of the Pink family with spherical sweet or sweet-sour fruits. It comes from the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. By maturity...
Apple production occupies a leading position in the structure of ... With a huge variety of varieties and species, this crop can ... Currently, apple horticulture has become the focus of attention of agro-industrial complex investors. This industry has…
Modern apple production is characterized by intensive growth ... However, the industry has not yet reached the stage of development in which it can ...
1.2. Growth rate of the apple market
Growth rate of the apple market in 2013-2020 allow us to state that the market is in the stage of … with prospects and potential …, this is indicated by a positive …%, a positive trend in the development of the market in … The decline in … was due to a slight decrease in …
...
The dynamics of the volume of the Indian apple market in real terms during the study period has … a development trend in recent years, which is due to … apples to replace the country's needs. Recession in ... years. primarily due to a decrease in …, in 2018-2019. followed by …% due to ... Both the growth and decline of the apple market are associated with changes in …, since the share of imports during the study period is significantly …, and the country’s domestic demand for apples … The maximum value of the market volume was reached in …, when the share of imported apples in the Indian market …%, and amounts to … thousand tons, the minimum value is in … year with an indicator of … thousand tons. GidMarket analysts suggest that in the coming years, the Indian apple market will be ... Market potential ... due to the promotion of a healthy lifestyle, ...
1.3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the market
The share of imports in the apple market is quite … during the study period and amounts to …%-…%, while it has a steady trend towards …, which is due to the introduction of …, as well as programs ...
… the volume of imports of apples to India (Diagram 3) created a shortage of this product, which naturally led to an increase in … and in parallel formed the prerequisites for … – the increased sales price of products made it possible to ensure a sufficient level of profitability of sales for the expediency of investing in the laying of apple plantations, an additional incentive is …
Diagram 3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the apple market, 2013–2020, %
According to the data … the main consumers of apples are citizens who use apples for fresh consumption, and also …, about …% of apples of the market volume are sent for processing. Indian apple growing companies sell more than …% of apples on the domestic market, this is evidenced by ...
As can be seen in diagram 3, the Indian apple market is represented by products of … manufacturers in recent years by more than …%. The main production is located in ... federal districts. Apple production annually… at the same time, about solving the problem of meeting the strong domestic demand for apples…
1.4. Volume and dynamics of apple production
According to …, the volume of apple production in India in 2020 amounted to … thousand tons. with a negative growth rate relative to the indicators of 2019 in …%.
The dynamics of apple production in India has ... a development trend in the study period with an average annual increase of ...%, except for ..., when the production volume ... At the same time, the growth rate in subsequent periods allows us to speak not only about ..., but also about their ... The minimum value of the production volume falls on … year and amounts to … thousand tons. The maximum value of the production volume reached in … year with an increase to the indicators of 2017 by …% and amounted to … thousand tons. The volume of production in this case directly depends on . ..
With an increase in production volumes, it is not observed .., which is due to a decrease in ... - the market in such conditions reacts more strongly to a decrease ... Further, a detailed examination of the indicators for imports and exports shows that the share of exports in production ...
It is worth noting that the increase in production volumes is primarily due to the high rate of laying ... Currently, horticulture is one of the most promising areas ... The development of the industry is facilitated by activity ...
1.5. Import of apples. Volume and dynamics
Diagram 5. Volume and dynamics of apple imports, 2013–2020
The share of imports in the apple market during the study period …, tends to …, averages …%. The volume of imports in physical terms has … a development trend, the average annual growth is also …%. In 2020, the volume of imports reaches … thousand tons with a negative increase compared to 2019 in …%, while still remaining at …
1.6. Export of apples. Volume and dynamics
During 2013-2020 The export volume of apples from India has an unequivocal … trend, while in … Despite the positive growth rates, the export volume is …%.
The maximum value of exports in physical terms falls on … years and amounted to … thousand tons, while the volume of exports in monetary terms in 2017 also reached ... The minimum value of apple exports in physical terms falls on … years and amounts to … i.e., the minimum value of exports in monetary terms falls on … and amounts to … thousand dollars with a negative growth rate against …, which is associated with a sharp decrease in the value of …
1.7. Share of exports in production
The share of exports in apple production in India during the study period remains stable …%, while considering the increase in exports with an increase in production volumes, we can talk about the potential ... Stable … the share of exports with an annual positive trend in apple production volumes indicates that that manufacturers...
Chapter 2. Economic characteristics of the market
2.1. Apple Market Trends
...
2.2. The main problems of the industry
The main challenges for the industry are...
2.3. Estimation of the number of buyers and their financial capabilities
Population. During 2019-2020 India's population shows … dynamics. … population has …, to a greater extent, demand is affected by a decrease in …
Rosstat predicts that the birth rate (number of children per woman) … from current … to … by 2025
Earlier, Rosstat published a demographic forecast until 2036. The most optimistic scenario assumes …
According to the results of the crisis year 2020, real disposable money incomes of Indians decreased by …% in annual terms, follows from ... From 2014 to 2017. real incomes of the population in India were declining, in 2018 they showed …%, and at the end of 2019 …%. At the end of 2020, they lag behind by …% from the level of 2013, the last year of steady income growth.
The Ministry of Economic Development expects that in 2021 real disposable income will reach …%, and then will grow by …%. A number of economists do not expect ...
2.4. Estimated consumption per capita
The dynamics of changes in apple consumption has … character in recent years. The per capita indicator in value terms (in producer prices) … during 2013-2016, in physical terms, consumption was about … kg per 1 person. In 2017, due to a decrease in the gross harvest and the volume of the market as a whole, consumption per capita …% in value terms amounted to … rupees per person per year, while reducing … kg per person per year. In 2018, per capita consumption per year amounted to … rupee per person, which is …% higher than in 2017 due to an increase in …
Per capita consumption in the Indian apple market generally correlates with …
2.5. Analysis of sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity
Let's consider sectoral indicators of financial and economic activity of the pome crops growing industry to determine the sustainability of the industry as a whole and the enterprises operating in it.
Gross margin is an economic indicator that characterizes the ratio of gross profit to revenue and allows you to evaluate the efficiency of an industry or enterprise.
Gross profitability of the industry of growing pome crops, the main of which are apples, in 2015-2018. quite ... and has ..., the deviation from the same indicator for all sectors of the Indian economy during 2015-2018. …, with the exception of … yr, the maximum value of the indicator is in … yr – …%, while the value of the indicator is by …% … the value of the indicator in all sectors of the Indian economy. In subsequent years, the gross margin …
Diagram 11. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the apple industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
Profitability before tax is an economic indicator that characterizes the ratio of gross profit to revenue, ...
Profitability before tax in the apple growing industry in 2015-2020 is close to the values of …, with the exception of …, when the indicator for the apple growing industry had ... In general, the level of profitability in the apple growing industry can be estimated as ...
The current (total) liquidity ratio is a financial ratio equal to the ratio ...
The value of the coefficient is considered normal ...
Current liquidity indicator for the apple growing industry in 2015-2020 ..., during the study period it is ... acceptable values. Since 2017, the indicator is ..., but remains ... A high indicator and ... indicate that at the enterprises of the apple growing industry ...
Absolute liquidity ratio - a financial ratio equal to the ratio of cash and short-term financial investments to ...
The financial position of the industry is recognized as good when the absolute liquidity ratio ...
The value of the absolute liquidity of the apple growing industry during the study period is ... the same indicator for all sectors of the Indian economy, while it is also ... the minimum allowable value. During the study period, there were insignificant ...
2.6. Compact location of industry companies in certain regions
To determine the compactness of the location of companies in the industry, consider ...
The largest number of apple planting areas is in …, since it is one of the main states of the … federal district where apples are grown thanks to … Large operating companies of the Indian apple market have orchards in …, the total planting area, according to Rosstat, is … thousand hectares . In second place in terms of planting area of pome crops …
2.7. Apple Market Life Cycle Stage
The life cycle stage of the apple market in India can be estimated as...
...
Chapter 3
3.1. Economic components
Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators.
It reflects the market value of all final goods and services intended for direct consumption, which were ...
GDP is expressed in national currency, or (if necessary) converted into foreign currency at the exchange rate, and can also be presented at purchasing power parity.
The decrease in the index of physical volume of GDP for 2020 was affected by the fall ...
The decline in global demand for energy resources has affected…
Significantly reduced the value added of enterprises ...
..
In intra-annual dynamics, the deepest decline was observed in Q , mainly due to the service economy sectors, associated with measures …
...
3.2. Social Components
...
3.3. Technological components
...
3.4. Political Components
...
3.5. STEP-analysis of the apple market
Table 3. STEP analysis of factors affecting the apple market
Based on the results of the analysis of factors affecting the apple market, there is a predominant ... influence of the main number of factors on the market, and, accordingly, on demand.
Restraining factors…
The following economic and political factors have a stimulating effect on the analyzed market: … It can be added that in 2020 the self-isolation regime contributed to …
In addition, the apple market is highly dependent on …
Chapter 4. Assessment of the degree of competition
4.1. Scale of competition (local, regional, national, global)
The apple market in India is characterized by a high level of ..., in the country ... companies operating in this industry, in addition, apples are grown in ... At the same time, experts estimate self-sufficiency in apples in India at about ...%, there are ...
Global competition in the apple market is expressed at … level – there are …
National competition ... is expressed in the apple market in India. Large companies…
Regional and local competition is expressed at the … level, it is …
4.2. Number of competitors and relative market shares of the largest competitors
The Indian apple market is represented by companies focused primarily on growing ... It is also worth noting that large companies are not limited to working on the market in the region where apples are grown, organizing …
Table 4 provides information on the 10 largest market operators, total similar companies in the Indian market …, while the number of market participants, including …, is more than …
According to GidMarket estimates, 10 companies can be considered the largest in the apple market, which have stable revenues with positive year-on-year dynamics and fairly large areas of apple plantations.
The largest players in the apple market are located in the … federal district, … federal district, and also in the … federal district. The level of competition between Indian companies…there are opportunities for entry…
The largest operators of the apple market, as a rule, have their own …
The market shares of the largest operators of the apple market are calculated based on the declared companies …
The market leaders are JSC “…” and JSC “…”, including LLC “…”, with shares of …% and …%, respectively (…). Next comes … with a market share of …%. JSC “…” and CJSC “…” with equal shares of …% each. Share ... The total share of other enterprises is ...%.
Apples are the top priority crop in the horticulture industry of India, they occupy more than …% in the structure of pome crops, they have a stable demand not only within the country, but also …
4.3. Competition from substitute products
...
Chapter 5 Industry Forecasts
5.1. Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry (the global crisis of 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014)
In 2020, many markets felt the impact of the pandemic and the onset of the economic crisis, the apple market in India was no exception, but the crisis in 2020 affected it to a lesser extent than the industries ...
Let us consider the impact of recent crises (the global crisis in 2008 and the currency crisis in India in 2014) on the horticulture industry and the apple market in India.
Table 5. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
...
5.2. Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry at the current date
...
5.3. Assessment of the degree of impact of the crisis due to covid-19 on the analyzed market. Barriers existing in the apple market
...
5.4. Prospects and growth drivers for the apple market
...
It is worth noting that one of the most important growth drivers for the apple market in India is ...
Consider the forecast indicators for the development of the Indian economy for the period 2021-2023. under two scenarios.
5.5. Forecast for the development of the apple market in the context of the current economic crisis due to covid-19
...
Chapter 6 Forecasting Methodology
6.1. Methods for forecasting key industry indicators
...
6.2. Sources of information for forecasting
...
6.3. Timing of forecasting
The forecast belongs to the medium-term category - 5 years (2021-2025)
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Structure of pome crops cultivation in India
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the volume of the apple market, 2013–2020
Diagram 3. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the apple market, 2013–2020, %
Chart 4. Trends in apple production in India, 2013–2020
Diagram 5. Volume and dynamics of apple imports, 2013–2020
Diagram 5.1. Volume and dynamics of apple imports in monetary terms, 2013–2020
Diagram 6. Volume and dynamics of apple exports, 2013–2020
Diagram 6.1. Volume and dynamics of apple exports in monetary terms, 2013–2020
Chart 7. Share of exports in production, 2013–2020, %
Diagram 8. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2012–2021
Chart 9. Dynamics of real income of the population of India, 2012-2020, available period 2021
Chart 10. Consumption in the apple market per capita, 2013-2020
Diagram 11. Profitability before tax (profit of the reporting period) in the apple industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015–2020, %
Diagram 12. Current liquidity (total coverage) for the apple industry in 2015–2020, times
Diagram 13. Compactness of location of companies in the industry in certain regions
Figure 1. Stage of the life cycle of the apple market
Chart 14. India's GDP evolution, 2012-2020, available period 2021
Chart 15. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2016-2021 available period, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 16. Shares of the largest competitors in the apple market in 2020, %
Diagram 17. Forecast of the volume of the apple market in 2021–2025
Tables
Table 1. Gross margin of the apple industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, %
Table 2. Absolute liquidity of the apple industry in comparison with all sectors of the Indian economy, 2015-2020, times
Table 3. STEP analysis of factors affecting the apple market
Table 4. Main companies participating in the apple market in 2020
Table 5. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry
Table 6. Analysis of the impact on the industry of the state aid proposed to date
Table 7. Forecast indicators of the development of the Indian economy
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