Analyzing the persimmon market in India
The relevance of research
The potential capacity of the persimmon market in India as of the beginning of 2021 is 15-25% more than the existing market volume. On the one hand, the market is at the stage of life cycle maturity, on the other hand, the potential capacity has not yet been reached. This development can be achieved under the condition of maximum affordability of fresh persimmon, positive dynamics of real incomes of the population and the use of fruit for the production of various products (desserts, jams, pastries, etc.).
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the persimmon market, assessment of the market volume, analysis of competitors, production, foreign trade supplies, consumption, prices, as well as determination of factors affecting the persimmon market
Content
Part 1. Overview of the Indian persimmon market
1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Persimmon market volume dynamics 2016-2020 Potential market capacity
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.4. Persimmon Market Life Cycle Stage
1.5. Competition from substitute products
Part 2. Competitive analysis in the persimmon market
2.1. Major players in the market
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
2.3. Profiles of major players
Part 3. Analysis of persimmon production
3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic persimmon production
3.2. Export share in persimmon production
3.3. Segmentation of persimmon production by regions
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
3.3.2. Production by states of India
Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of persimmon
4.1. Persimmon import volume and dynamics
4.2. Import structure
4.3. Persimmon export volume and dynamics
4.4. Export structure
Part 5. Persimmon consumption analysis
5.1. Persimmon consumption dynamics
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase
Part 6. Price Analysis
6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India
Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market
Part 8. Persimmon market development forecast up to 2025
Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions
Research excerpt
Part 1. Overview of the Indian persimmon market
1.1. Main characteristics of the market
The botanical name of the persimmon is ""Diospyros"", which is of Greek origin and means ""food of the gods"" or ""divine fire"". Translated from Latin as ""heart apple"". Another name for persimmon is persimmon. Many do not know it, although it seems more harmonious and easy to pronounce. Persimmon is also called Chinese peach and divine plum. …
For the first time in India, persimmon trees were planted in 1889 in the Caucasus. Seedlings of 12 varieties were brought from Japan by Professor Andrey Krasnov. Many amateur gardeners of the Black Sea coast have made attempts to grow fruits on their plantations and distribute them in the Krasnodar Territory. But the persimmon was of poor quality. Due to the lack of heat and sunlight, even when fully ripe, it was very hard, tart and unsweetened. Today, the climate has changed, so in the south of India, persimmon bears fruit, however, its production on an industrial scale in India is practically absent.
According to Rosstat, the group of subtropical fruit and berry crops, which includes persimmon, occupies only ... % of the total gross harvest of fruits and berries in the country, while persimmon accounts for probably no more than ... % of the total gross harvest.
...
1.2. Persimmon market volume dynamics 2016-2020 Potential market capacity
Let us consider the dynamics of the volume of the persimmon market in India in physical terms, without taking into account the volume of fruits grown by the population on their own.
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the volume of the persimmon market in India in 2016 - 2020, thousand tons
Over the past decade, the minimum volume of the persimmon market in India was observed in 2014 - about … thousand tons. The sharp drop was due to a combination of factors of import dependence and a significant depreciation of the rupee during the peak season for buying persimmons abroad - in the 4th quarter of 2014 (see section 1.3 of this study). …
The potential capacity of the persimmon market in India as of the beginning of 2021 is estimated at … thousand tons per year, or … % more than the existing market volume. …
The estimation of the shares of federal districts in total revenue was made by GidMarket on the basis of estimated data on the gross harvest for the Union Territories (among agricultural enterprises, peasant farms and individual entrepreneurs, see more in section 3.3 of this study), import volumes for the Union Territories and average annual prices of importers. Traditionally, the Central Union Territories is the leader in the revenue structure - it is the most attractive and concentrated sales market, while the largest number of large persimmon importers is registered in the Central Union Territories. During the period under review, the share of this district increased from … % to … %.
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
Macroeconomic factors influence the dynamics of all sectors of the Indian economy, including the persimmon market. The main groups of factors are: economic, political, social and technological.
• Economic
Under the circumstances that currently (March 2021) negatively affect the size of GDP in the short and medium term, we will indicate the opinions of experts on the pace of development of world GDP and different countries. …
Let's consider some experts' estimates of India's GDP dynamics forecast.
The Central Bank predicts a recovery growth of the Indian economy by 2,8-4,8% in 2021 and 1,5-3,5% in 2022. The Central Bank stressed that the worsening of the epidemic situation due to the coronavirus pandemic in the coming months will continue to have a restraining effect on business activity in the country.
...
Thus, experts disagree on the forecast for the medium term: in 2021-2023, the economy is expected to recover at a slow pace - by ...%. Currently, the factor of the decline in GDP in 2020 has a negative impact on the market in question.
...
Dynamics of prices for electricity, fuel. The dynamics of electricity tariffs and fuel prices affect any industry. As shown in the table, the prices for these categories increase annually, the CPI is in all cases above 100%, which negatively affects the market in question.
Industrial production index. …
The IPP value less than …% until 2020 was observed only in 2015, the year of the peak of the crisis, in the remaining years of the period under review (2014, 2016-2019) the value was not less than …%. …
Diagram 8 shows the dynamics of the retail trade volume index.
Retail trade turnover is a reflection of the effective demand of the population and the level of real incomes of the population. The retail trade turnover in 2015-2016 showed a negative trend: in 2015 the decline amounted to …% compared to 2014, in 2016 – “minus” …% compared to 2015. Such a deep decline in trade turnover was not even in the previous crisis of 2008-2009. …
• Social
During 2010-2018, there was an increase in the population. An increase of 1,81% in 2015 compared to the previous 2014 is due, in addition to natural growth and growth due to migration, by joining the territory of the state of the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol. However, at the beginning of 2018, the population growth rate fell to 0,05% compared to the previous 2017, in 2019 (as of January 1.01.2019, 2017) population growth stopped, the level returned to the value of 1. As of January 2020, 0,02, there was another decrease of %. This factor has a negative impact on the market in question.
According to the forecast for the period up to 2024, the population will increase only if the high version of the forecast is followed, however, in the light of the economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, this version of the forecast is unlikely to materialize. …
General trends in macroeconomic indicators can also be traced in such a value as real incomes of the population, which determine the level of effective demand. Diagram 11 shows the dynamics of the growth rate of this indicator.
From 2014 to 2017, there is a downward trend in real incomes of the population and living standards. In 2014, real incomes of the population fell by 1,2%, in 2015 by 2,4%, and in 2016 by another 4,5% compared to the previous year. …
The fashion for a healthy lifestyle and the consumption of fresh natural products affects the persimmon market, since this fruit contains many vitamins and microelements, the balance of which in the body contributes to its rejuvenation and is the basis of strong immunity. Persimmon is used in medicine, nutrition, cooking. This trend has a positive impact on the persimmon market, stimulating adherents of a healthy lifestyle to increase the share of fruits in the daily diet.
• Technological
Seasonality. Let's present the data on monthly import volumes in the form of a diagram.
Chart 12. Monthly dynamics of persimmon imports to India, 2015-2020, tons
The seasonality of the persimmon market in India is clearly illustrated by the monthly dynamics of imports. Persimmon imports to India peak in October-December, the lowest import volumes occur in March-August. Seasonality has a negative impact on the persimmon market, since in fact there is no proceeds from its sale in the spring-summer period.
...
For persimmons, there are requirements for the conditions of transportation.
When transporting fruit, it is imperative to follow all the rules for transporting perishable products:
- Ripe, dirty and rotten fruits cannot be transported
- The vehicle must be disinfected and decontaminated
- Keep temperature and humidity levels in check
- During transportation, persimmons must be protected from contamination.
If the established rules are not followed, there is a possibility of damage to the fruit. Also, the goods may be seized on the way. …
Only unripe fruits can be transported, because the persimmon, which has reached full maturity, is soft, has a jelly structure inside. The persimmon is removed from the tree while still greenish and placed in boxes or boxes. For transport, you need to issue a certificate of hygienic safety.
• Political
The tense political situation in interstate relations has a negative impact on all spheres of the Indian economy. The main activities of the state and the strategic tasks at present are the development of new models of cooperation with the US and the EU and the approval of India in the world monetary system. Anti-India sanctions and the generally sharp deterioration in relations between Western countries and India largely determine India's foreign policy.
Credit policy. Today it is quite difficult to imagine the progressive development of the economy without the active participation of the credit system. It should also be noted that the assessment of the availability of credit resources for both legal entities and individuals is a significant indicator that allows assessing not only the demand for credit funds, but can also serve as a reflection of the real economic situation both in the region and in the economy as a whole. …
Let's summarize the main factors influencing the market in the framework of the Step-analysis.
Table 4. STEP analysis of factors affecting the persimmon market
In general, the impact of macro factors on the persimmon market in India can be assessed as …
1.5. Competition from substitute products
The main substitutes for persimmon in the Indian market are the following fruits popular with the Indian consumer: apples, bananas, oranges.
Apple
...
Orange
...
Banana
...
In view of the foregoing, at the moment the threat to the persimmon market from substitute products is quite high, since:
Persimmon in the domestic market does not have a sufficient level of formed consumption culture;
The price of persimmon is highly dependent on the exchange rate of foreign currencies.
Part 2. Competitive analysis in the persimmon market
2.1. Major players in the market
Since the market consists of imported products by more than ... %, the largest players in the market are foreign manufacturers. We present information about them in a table.
Table 5. The largest companies in the persimmon market in India in 2020
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
Experts also note the high level of competition in the Indian market among suppliers. This is due to the relative homogeneity of the product. …
2.3. Profiles of major players
All the presented companies, which are leaders in the supply of persimmons to India, produce and sell a wide range of products - mainly fresh vegetables, fruits, herbs, nuts and berries.
Part 3. Analysis of persimmon production
3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic persimmon production
The estimation of production volumes in India is carried out on the basis of:
- data from the 2016 agricultural census, which shows rounded data on the area of persimmon plantations in the whole country and by category of farms,
- general trends in the dynamics of the area of plantations of subtropical fruit and berry plants,
- data on the average yield of persimmon varieties grown in India.
Diagram 17. Dynamics of persimmon production volumes (all categories of farms) in India in 2015 - 2020, thousand tons
The dynamics of persimmon production, according to GidMarket, in physical terms, in the period under review, as a whole, was stagnating near the average value of … thousand tons.
These circumstances allow us to draw the following conclusions:
- In India, there is practically no industrial production of persimmon: it is formed only by those volumes that form the commercial sector of production - crops obtained in agricultural enterprises, individual entrepreneurs and peasant farms and sent for sale.
- As a rule, the crops received by the population on their own household plots, garden plots, etc. plots are used by citizens for their own consumption, and therefore do not participate in the formation of the market volume.
...
In recent years, the volume of persimmon production for sale slightly exceeded … thousand tons.
Since the persimmon market is dominated by imported products, the dynamics of the total revenue of the Top 5 producers is calculated based on the revenue from the sale of persimmon by foreign leaders in each of the periods presented.
...
Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of persimmon
4.1. Persimmon import volume and dynamics
The Indian persimmon market is dominated by imported products with a stable share, which is explained by the favorable climate for growing this fruit in only a few states of India.
...
The dynamics of persimmon imports to India in physical terms is undulating. …
The dynamics of imports in value terms is similar to the change in volumes in physical terms in the period under review, while in general one can note an upward trend in persimmon imports. At the end of 2020, this fruit was imported in the amount of … billion Rs. (in terms of the average annual dollar exchange rate).
4.2. Import structure
In the structure of persimmon imports to India in physical terms in 2020, … % falls on the CIS countries and … % - on non-CIS countries.
4.3. Persimmon export volume and dynamics
The diagrams show data on export volumes of persimmon in dynamics for 6 years.
Diagram 25. Persimmon export dynamics in monetary terms in 2015-2020, million Rs.
As mentioned earlier, India is not a persimmon producer on an industrial scale (it practically does not produce for sale even within the country), therefore, as such, there is no export direction on the market, and export operations are re-exports - a situation where foreign goods previously imported into the territory of India are exported without payment of customs and other duties, taxes or their return (offset). …
Part 5. Persimmon consumption analysis
5.1. Persimmon consumption dynamics
The dynamics of changes in persimmon consumption has a wave-like character. The per capita indicator grew almost annually during 2016-2020, in physical terms, consumption amounted to ... kg per 1 person per year in 2020. …
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase
Table 9. Tenders for the purchase of persimmons, for which contracts were concluded in the period from 01.01.2020/15.03.2021/1 to / / in amounts of more than million Rs.
In 2020-2021 (as of March 15, 2021), tenders for the purchase of persimmons most often consisted of an electronic auction - in ... % of cases, a request for proposals was also carried out quite often - in ... % of tenders. The third most popular was a small purchase with a share of …%.
Persimmon, presented in commercial purchases and purchases under FZ-223, is also purchased together with other food products. Buyers are both large companies (for example, Gazprom), as well as divisions of state institutions and small private enterprises.
Part 6. Price Analysis
6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
Since, firstly, more than ... % of the persimmon market is represented by imported goods, and secondly, the Federal State Statistics Service does not fix the prices of Indian agricultural enterprises (producers) growing and selling persimmons, due to the insignificant volumes of its production, we will present information at average persimmon import prices by Union Territories of import recipients.
...
In general, despite the fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate, one can note the relative stability of the average annual import price in India as a whole - according to experts from the AgroXXI industry portal, foreign producers are reducing prices in the struggle for the market, so the rate of increase in the cost of persimmons is much less than the rate of fall of the Indian currency. On the other hand, the figures for the Central Union Territories and the South Union Territories, which receive the largest volumes of persimmons from abroad (more than ... % of imports in total), are more indicative: in these districts, prices in rupees have increased by ... % since 2016, over the past year - on the … %.
Greater price increases were avoided due to the presence of serious competition among suppliers - Indian importers choose products with an optimal price-quality ratio.
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India
Let's consider the differences in prices by regions of the country for persimmons with an average cost of … Rs. per 1 kg in 2020.
...
Prices in the states of India vary quite a lot. The maximum price for 1 kg of persimmon is ... rupees, it is noted in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Also in the list of regions with very high prices - more than ... rupees - Magadan region and Rep. Sakha (Yakutia). …
Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market
Part 8. Persimmon market development forecast up to 2025
Part 9. Recommendations and conclusion
List of diagrams
Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the persimmon market in 2016-2020,%
Figure 2. Nutritional value of persimmon
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the volume of the persimmon market in India in 2016 - 2020, thousand tons
Diagram 4. Revenue (net) from the sale of persimmon in the Union Territories for 2016 - 2020, %
Diagram 5. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2007-2020, % to the previous year
Chart 6. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2015-2020, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 7. Dynamics of India's IPP in 2014 - 2020, % to the previous year
Diagram 8. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, 2013 - 2020, % to the previous year
Diagram 9. Population dynamics in India as of January 1, 2010-2020, million people, %
Diagram 10. Population forecast in India for the period 2021-2024, million people
Diagram 11. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2011 - 2020, % to the previous year
Chart 12. Monthly dynamics of persimmon imports to India, 2015-2020, tons
Chart 13. Dynamics of the size of the average interest rate on loans, 2015-2020 (Jan-Nov), years, %
Figure 14. Life cycle stage of the persimmon market
Figure 15. Main persimmon substitute products
Diagram 16. Shares of the largest competitors in the persimmon market in 2020, %
Diagram 17. Dynamics of persimmon production volumes (all categories of farms) in India in 2015 - 2020, thousand tons
Diagram 18. Structure of persimmon production by type of farms in India, %
Diagram 19. Dynamics of persimmon production volumes (commercial sector: agricultural enterprises, individual entrepreneurs, peasant farms) in India in 2015 - 2020, thousand tons
Diagram 20. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest producers (TOP-5) in the persimmon market in India, 2016-2020, USD million
Diagram 21. The share of exports in production (in physical terms) for 2015 - 2020, %
Diagram 22. Volume and dynamics of persimmon imports in kind in 2015-2020, thousand tons
Diagram 23. Volume and dynamics of persimmon imports in monetary terms in 2015-2020, million Rs.
Diagram 24. Persimmon export dynamics in physical terms in 2015-2020, thousand tons
Diagram 25. Persimmon export dynamics in monetary terms in 2015-2020, million Rs.
Diagram 26. Balance of exports and imports in 2015-2020, million Rs.
Chart 27. Structure of exports by countries in 2020, %
Diagram 28. Dynamics of persimmon consumption in 2015 - 2020, kg / person in year
Chart 29. Distribution of the number of purchases containing persimmon in India, depending on the type of procurement procedure (by number of purchases) in 2020 and Jan.-Mar. 2021, %
Diagram 30. Forecast of market volume in 2021 - 2025, thousand tons
List of tables
Table 1. Forecasts of various sources for real GDP in India in 2020-2023 (base scenario), %
Table 2. CPI for selected types of industrial goods for India at the end of the period in 2014-2020 (January-November), %
Table 3. Weighted average interest rates of credit institutions on credit operations in rupees, excluding PJSC Sberbank (% per annum), 2015-2020 (Jan-Nov)
Table 4. STEP analysis of factors affecting the persimmon market
Table 5. The largest companies in the persimmon market in India in 2020
Table 6. Profiles of Top 10 persimmon companies in 2020
Table 7. Dynamics of persimmon production in India by union territories for all types of farms in 2016-2020, thousand tons
Table 8. Persimmon import structure by importing countries in 2020, %
Table 9. Tenders for the purchase of persimmons, for which contracts were concluded in the period from 01.01.2020/15.03.2021/1 to / / in amounts of more than million Rs.
Table 10. Tenders for the purchase of persimmons (except for contracts under the Federal Law-44) in 2020 in the amount of at least 10 million Rs.
Table 11. Average producer prices (average annual import prices) for persimmon across the Union Territories in 2015-2020, Rs./kg
Table 12. Average consumer prices in the persimmon market by Indian states in 2020, Rs./kg
Table 13. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the persimmon market
Table 14. Main indicators of the forecast for the socio-economic development of India until 2023 (base case), units rev.
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