Analysis of the watermelon market in India
The relevance of research
Watermelon is an annual herb. Nowadays, most watermelons are grown in China, followed by countries such as Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and Uzbekistan. In India, watermelon grows mainly in the Lower Volga region, in the North Caucasus. It is possible to grow it in greenhouses, through seedlings. There are table and fodder varieties of this crop, which give different yields.
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the watermelon market in India, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the watermelon market in India)
Content
Part 1. Overview of the Indian watermelon market
1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Dynamics of the watermelon market volume in 2016-2020 Potential market capacity
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.4. Watermelon Market Life Cycle Stage
1.5. Competition from substitute products
Part 2. Competitive analysis in the watermelon market
2.1. Major players in the market
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
2.3. Profiles of major players
Part 3. Watermelon Production Analysis
3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of watermelons
3.2. The share of exports in the production of watermelons
3.3. Segmentation of watermelon production by regions
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
3.3.2. Production by states of India
Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade deliveries of watermelons
4.1. Volume and dynamics of imports of watermelons
4.2. Import structure
4.3. The volume and dynamics of exports of watermelons
4.4. Export structure
Part 5. Watermelon Consumption Analysis
5.1. Dynamics of consumption of watermelons
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase
Part 6. Price Analysis
6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India
Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market
Part 8. Forecast for the development of the watermelon market until 2025
Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions
Research excerpt
Part 1. Overview of the Indian watermelon market
1.1. Main characteristics of the market
...
Sowing of watermelons is carried out when the soil at a depth of 0,1 meters warms up to 12-13 C and the probability of frost is minimal (seedlings do not tolerate sub-zero temperatures). The lowest temperatures for the development of this crop are 12-15 C, but watermelon grows best in this temperature regime at night, while 25-30 C and plenty of sunlight are desirable during the day. Too high temperatures (above 40 C) have a bad effect on flowering, just like high humidity (optimally 60-70 percent).
...
The activity of growing watermelons belongs to OKVED 01.13.2 - Cultivation of gourds. This code is included in the OKVED group 01.13 - Growing vegetables, melons, root and tuber crops, mushrooms and truffles. OKVED code 01.13.2 assumes that the company is engaged in the cultivation of gourds for food and / or fodder purposes, for silage preparations, for the production of nardec - watermelon honey, which is extracted from watermelon juice by evaporating water.
Specific risks for OKVED 01.13.2: bad weather (melons are heat-loving), lack of water resources (water needs of melons are very high, since their fruits are 40-90% water), unsuitable soils, poor-quality seed material or lack of its quantity , incorrect place of the crop in the crop rotation, non-compliance with the terms and norms of sowing, lack of processing of crops, failure to meet the deadlines for harvesting crops, lack of equipment (for soil preparation, sowing, caring for crops, harvesting), lack of fuel and lubricants and / or electricity, lack of fertilizers, pest control, weed control, plant diseases, lack of labor (often harvested by hand), natural disasters.
...
Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the volume of the watermelon market (including households) in 2016-2020, %
According to GidMarket, during the period under review, the share of imported products in the watermelon market (including households) did not exceed …%. According to the data for 2020, more than ... % of watermelons on the market are domestic goods. However, the share of imports in the market volume increased over 2016-2020. From to … %.
...
- Useful properties of watermelon
Watermelon helps to remove toxins from the body, is an excellent diuretic, cleanses the kidneys and liver. Due to the considerable content of vitamins (C, B1, B2), carotene, folic acid, pantothenic acid and many other useful substances, watermelon improves the digestive process and has a beneficial effect on the cardiovascular system. Doctors recommend watermelons to people prone to kidney and liver stones, gout and anemia, according to eastwest-doc.ru.
...
Watermelon is used for medicinal purposes both internally and topically. Watermelon juice and pulp have a rejuvenating effect and have a beneficial effect on the skin, they are used for eczema and psoriasis. A decoction of watermelon peels perfectly relieves swelling associated with diseases of the heart and kidneys, helps with rheumatism. Watermelon seeds are great for getting rid of parasites in the body. Also, watermelon seeds are used in the treatment of patients with jaundice, dropsy, as an anti-inflammatory agent. Watermelon seeds also contain fatty oil. Experts believe that it is in no way inferior to almond in its medical properties, and olive in taste. Watermelon seeds are often added to other dishes, in West Africa, for example, they are put in soups. And in China, sunflower seeds are sold roasted, with various seasonings and compete with sunflower seeds. Watermelon seeds are not only eaten, but also used for cosmetic purposes.
...
1.2. Dynamics of the watermelon market volume in 2016-2020 Potential market capacity
Consider the dynamics of the volume of the watermelon market in India in physical terms:
- grown by all categories of farms (taking into account the volumes grown by farms of the population)
- ...
...
The potential capacity of the watermelon market in India as of the beginning of 2021 is estimated at … – … thousand tons per year, or …-…% more than the existing market volume. On the one hand, the market is at the stage of life cycle maturity, on the other hand, the potential capacity has not yet been reached. This can happen under the condition of maximum affordability of the product “fresh watermelons”, positive dynamics of real incomes of the population, the supply of new varieties (seedless, various shapes, etc.) and the use of watermelons for the production of various products (desserts, jams, etc.). ).
The estimation of the shares of federal districts in total revenue was made by GidMarket on the basis of estimated data on the gross harvest in the union territories for all categories of farms (agricultural enterprises, peasant farms and individual entrepreneurs, household farms) and average annual producer prices in the union territories. In the revenue structure, the Southern and Volga Federal Districts are leading as the main regions for growing watermelons.
...
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
Macroeconomic factors influence the dynamics of all sectors of the Indian economy, including the watermelon market. The main groups of factors are: economic, political, social and technological.
Economic factors affecting the market
GDP (gross domestic product) is used to determine the rate of economic development of any state. GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the total value of goods, works and services that were produced and provided in the country in a year. Gross domestic product is the main indicator on the basis of which the level and pace of the country's economic development are determined.
...
The impact of the crisis, which began in 2008, led to a decrease in GDP by … % in 2009, but then the growth rates were quite high until 2012 inclusive.
Further, until 2014, the growth rate was positive, but constantly decreasing, and in 2015 it was less than zero. In 2015, which was the peak of the crisis in the state, the decline in GDP amounted to …% compared to the previous year in 2014, and since the dynamics of GDP is directly proportional to the well-being of citizens, this indicates a drop in family incomes, a reduction in demand, and an increase in prices. It also led to a decline in production and employment.
...
World trade in goods and services, according to UN estimates, decreased by …% in 2020. Tourism exports decreased by …%, as a result of which the tourism industry lost about 1,1 trillion dollars. The developing countries of the Caribbean, whose economies are oriented towards the tourism sector, have been hit the hardest. The pandemic has also increased inequality, with 131 million more people living in poverty globally.
...
The expert noted that the forecasts for the recovery of the Indian economy depend on the possible dynamics of the global economy and the development of the epidemiological situation.
Some expert estimates of India's GDP dynamics forecast:
- The Central Bank predicts recovery growth of the Indian economy in the range of 4,0-4,5% in 2021 and growth in the range of 2,0-3,0% per year in 2022-2024. Earlier, the Central Bank expected GDP growth in 2021 at the level of 2,8-4,8%, in 2022 at the level of 2,5-3,5%. The Bank of India estimates that in the second quarter of 2021, the Indian economy has reached pre-crisis levels. Operational indicators testify to the steady growth of consumer and investment demand. Consumer activity, according to the Bank of India, has already exceeded pre-pandemic levels, despite partial tightening of restrictive measures.
- ...
- ...
- ...
- ...
- ...
- ...
Almost all experts have improved the forecast for the recovery growth of the Indian economy in 2021 (the difference in opinions is in the range of …-…%), while at the same time lowering the forecast level for 2022 (the range of forecast estimates is …-…%). In general, in 2021-2023, GDP growth is expected to be modest.
...
The depreciation of the rupee against the dollar and the euro since 2014 has had a strong negative impact on the level of effective demand of the population, on the financial condition of enterprises.
Since the market of watermelons during the non-melon season is dominated by imported products, the factor of devaluation of the rupee affects the market extremely negatively, as consumer prices increase. In addition, the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar and the euro has a strong negative impact on the level of effective demand in general.
...
Social factors affecting the market
During 2010-2018, there was an increase in the population. The growth of … % in 2015 compared to the previous 2014 is due, in addition to natural growth and growth due to migration, by joining the territory of the state of the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol. However, at the beginning of 2018, the population growth rate fell to ... % compared to the previous 2017, in 2019 (as of January 1.01.2019, 2017) population growth stopped, the level returned to the value of 1. As of January 2020, 19, there was another decrease by …%. Against the backdrop of the covid-2020 pandemic, the population of India for 1 decreased by … thousand people and as of January 2021, 2005 amounted to … million … thousand people. This is the largest drop in population since .
...
The fashion for a healthy lifestyle and the consumption of fresh natural products affects the watermelon market, since this fruit contains many vitamins and microelements, the balance of which in the body contributes to its rejuvenation and is the basis of strong immunity.
...
Technological factors affecting the market
Seasonality. The season for the supply of watermelons by Indian producers: July - October. Mass deliveries of domestic fresh watermelons begin in late July - early August, depending on weather conditions. In the remaining months of the year, imported products are presented on the Indian watermelon market, but their volumes are significantly lower than in the melon season.
...
High dependence of the crop on weather conditions. The limited ability of cultivated plants to regulate their internal environment causes their unusually high dependence on soil, climatic and weather conditions. Watermelon makes high demands on light and thermal conditions.
...
Climate warming. Climate warming in the last few years has significantly expanded the geography of growing gourds and favorably affected the quality of Indian watermelons.
Customs procedures and their features for foreign trade operations with watermelons. Watermelons are both exported by India and imported into India. In order to legalize the cargo in both cases, it is necessary to go through the procedure of customs clearance of watermelons.
...
The essence of customs clearance is reduced to the legalization of goods for the purpose of its further sale in the country. Customs clearance is required for both import and export of goods. The deadlines for customs clearance of watermelons are established by Article 196 of the Customs Code of India. According to these norms, the cargo must be released within 24 hours after arrival at the customs point.
...
Watermelons must be properly packaged and labeled. The marking is applied in Indian on each package for retail sale. It includes: product name, net weight, expiration date, storage conditions, information on the use of GMOs, addresses of the manufacturer and importer, names of the manufacturer and importer, date of manufacture, EAC mark.
Upon request, a quality certificate is issued, which allows you to expand sales markets and attract partners.
Requirements for the conditions of transportation. When transporting watermelons as part of international transport, it is necessary to ensure optimal transport conditions, in particular suitable temperature and humidity levels. For watermelons, the most suitable temperature regime is from +18 to +21 ° C and a humidity level of at least 80–95%.
...
Political factors affecting the market
The tense political situation in interstate relations has a negative impact on all spheres of the Indian economy. The main activities of the state and the strategic tasks at present are the development of new models of cooperation with the US and the EU and the approval of India in the world monetary system. Anti-India sanctions and the generally sharp deterioration in relations between Western countries and India largely determine India's foreign policy.
...
Let's summarize the main factors influencing the market in the framework of the Step-analysis.
Table 5. STEP analysis of factors affecting the watermelon market
...
1.4. Watermelon Market Life Cycle Stage
At the moment, the watermelon market is at the stage of life cycle maturity. At the same time, the quality of the product is not at a stable level, so the consumer is waiting for further changes towards the naturalness and environmental friendliness of the product. The product is presented on the market by a significant number of modifications (in this case, varieties).
...
At the stage of maturity, the main task of marketing activities is to extend the life cycle of the product and involves:
- improvement of the trade assortment due to product differentiation;
- ...
- ...
- ...
1.5. Competition from substitute products
Substitute products for watermelons include other crops, mainly fruits. Fruit grown in India does not fully cover the needs of Indians. Two-thirds of the Indian fruit market is occupied by imported products. The level of fruit consumption is more than 2,5 times behind the countries of Europe and is about 43 kg per person. Due to the potential and large volumes, exporters perceive the Indian market as important from a strategic point of view. Fruits make up about 6% of Indians' spending on food.
...
Closest to watermelons is melon (botanically not a fruit), which in India also has a wide consumption culture. The main substitutes for watermelons in the Indian market are melons, as well as fruits popular with Indian consumers - apples, bananas, oranges.
- melons
The main competitor of watermelons is melon. Melons, being, like watermelons, melons, ripen at the same time as watermelons. During the gourd season, the consumer often chooses between watermelon and melon.
...
Melon is a unique product with an incredible aroma and juicy pulp. Most often, melon is eaten raw, cut into slices and removing the seeds and peel. In addition, the melon is dried, dried, pickled. They make jam, jam, candied fruits, liqueurs and crunches from it. Add to ice cream, sorbets and salads.
According to the results of the 2016 All India Agricultural Census, in India, the area under cultivation of melon is significantly less than that of watermelon. Nevertheless, the competition of melons in relation to watermelons is quite significant.
...
- Apple
According to IndexBox Russia, the bulk of the fruit market is represented by apples (about …% in real terms). According to Vostok Capital, the share of apples in the Indian fruit market is …%. Apple trees are the most common fruit-bearing plants in India, because apple cultivation is possible in most of the territory. Other types of fruits (cherries, plums, pears) are more demanding on growing conditions; only the climate of the southern regions of India (Southern and North Caucasian federal districts, primarily Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, Rostov Region and Crimea) is suitable for them. According to surveys among Indians, apples remain the most popular fruit.
According to GidMarket, the apple market in India has a significant scale - more than ... million tons per year.
...
- Orange
The fruit of the orange tree. The most common citrus crop in all tropical and subtropical regions of the world.
...
- Banana
One of the oldest food crops, and for tropical countries the most important food plant and the main export item.
...
Thus, taking into account the beneficial properties of fruits popular with Indian consumers, as well as the price factor, we can conclude that substitute products have a significant impact on the watermelon market in the period from November to June. Nevertheless, watermelons in the Indian market have a well-formed consumption culture (mainly in July-September) and the threat to the watermelon market in the melon season from substitute products is not high. In addition, in August every year, watermelons are the leader in Indian sales among fruit and berry crops.
Part 2. Competitive analysis in the watermelon market
2.1. Major players in the market
The Indian watermelon market is mainly represented by domestically produced products grown by agricultural producers in southern India. At the same time, the watermelon market is mainly formed by many small producers - peasant (farm) and personal subsidiary plots. According to experts, approximately ... % of watermelons are grown in small farms. 64% of the collection of watermelons falls on the households.
...
Large players in the watermelon market are mainly represented by complex companies and agricultural holdings that grow various crops, as well as engage in animal husbandry, crop production and other business areas, including the processing of grown products. …
Both large and medium and small producers of watermelons overwhelmingly grow not only watermelons and other melons, but also other agricultural crop products.
...
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
Chart 15. Shares of the largest competitors in the watermelon market in 2020, %
...
Part 3. Watermelon Production Analysis
3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of watermelons
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), India is one of the top ten producers of watermelons in the world. In 2020, the gross harvest of watermelons by all categories of farms amounted to … million tons. The season for the supply of watermelons by Indian producers: July - October.
...
The analysis of watermelon production volumes in India is significantly complicated by the fact that the Federal State Statistics Service does not keep records of the gross harvest of this berry. In the annual calculations of crop volumes and areas of perennial plantations, watermelons, along with melons and pumpkins, are included by Rosstat in the combined group ""Melons and gourds"".
The estimation of production volumes in India is carried out on the basis of:
- data from the 2016 agricultural census, which shows data on the area of watermelon plantations in the whole country, union territories and states of India, as well as by category of holdings, which allows us to estimate the share of watermelons in the gross harvest of melons in India in 2016. Over the past five years, significant changes in the structure of cultivation of melons by types of crops did not occur;
- ...
- ...
Diagram 16. Dynamics of watermelon production volumes (all categories of farms) in India for 2016 - 2020, thousand tons
...
About …% of watermelon production (out of the gross harvest) falls on the households (cultivation is carried out by tenants, who most often rent land with their families), another …% - on peasant (farm) households and individual entrepreneurs (peasant farms and individual entrepreneurs). Agricultural organizations (ACOs) account for only … % of the total production volume.
...
3.2. The share of exports in the production of watermelons
In general, the share of exports in the production of watermelons ranges from … % to … % in the period under review. The volume of export operations with watermelons occupy a small share in India's trade turnover and do not have a significant impact on the market.
...
3.3.2. Production by states of India
...
Diagram 21. The structure of the gross harvest of watermelons by states of India for all categories of farms, %
...
Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade deliveries of watermelons
4.1. Volume and dynamics of imports of watermelons
The Indian watermelon market is dominated by domestic products with a stable share. However, outside the season of Indian melons, the demand for watermelons is mainly provided by imported products. The main volumes of imports fall on April - September, of which the peak months are July - August.
The charts below show data on watermelon import volumes over 5 years.
...
List of diagrams
Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the volume of the watermelon market (including households) in 2016-2020, %
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the volume of the watermelon market (excluding households) in 2016-2020, %
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the volume of the watermelon market in India in 2016 - 2020 (taking into account the volumes grown by households), thousand tons
Diagram 4. Dynamics of the volume of the watermelon market in India in 2016 - 2020 (without taking into account the volumes grown by households), thousand tons
Diagram 5. Comparison of watermelon market size in India in 2014 - 2020 with and without taking into account the volumes grown by households, thousand tons
Diagram 6. Revenue (net) from the sale of watermelons in the Union Territories for 2016 - 2020, %
Diagram 7. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2007-2020 and for the 1st half of 2021, billion Rs. and % to the same period last year
Chart 8. Average monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, January 2016 - July 2021, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 9. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, 2013 - 2020 and for the 1st half of 2021, % compared to the same period last year
Diagram 10. Population dynamics in India as of January 1, 2010-2021, million people, %
Diagram 11. Population forecast in India for the period 2022-2024, million people
Chart 12. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2011 - 2020 and for the 1st half of 2021, % compared to the same period of the previous year
Chart 13. Dynamics of the rural population of India on January 1, 2001 - 2021
Diagram 14. Dynamics of the average interest rate on loans, 2015-2020, %
Chart 15. Shares of the largest competitors in the watermelon market in 2020, %
Diagram 16. Dynamics of watermelon production volumes (all categories of farms) in India for 2016 - 2020, thousand tons
Diagram 17. Structure of watermelon production by type of farms in India, %
Diagram 18. Dynamics of watermelon production volumes (industrial sector: agricultural enterprises, individual entrepreneurs, peasant farms) in India in 2016 - 2020, thousand tons
Diagram 19. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest producers (TOP-5 for 2020) in the watermelon market in India, 2016-2020, billion Rs.
Diagram 20. The share of exports in production (in physical terms) for 2016 - 2020, %
Diagram 21. The structure of the gross harvest of watermelons by states of India for all categories of farms, %
Diagram 22. Volume and dynamics of imports of watermelons in physical terms in 2016-2020, thousand tons
Diagram 23. Volume and dynamics of imports of watermelons in monetary terms in 2016-2020, million Rs.
Diagram 24. Dynamics of export of watermelons in physical terms in 2016-2020, thousand tons
Diagram 25. Dynamics of export of watermelons in monetary terms in 2016-2020, million Rs.
Diagram 26. Balance of exports and imports in 2015-2020, million Rs.
Chart 27. Structure of exports by countries in 2020, %
Diagram 28. Dynamics of consumption of watermelons in 2016 - 2020, kg / person in year
Chart 29. Distribution of the number of purchases containing watermelons in the subject in India depending on the type of procurement procedure (by the number of purchases) for 7 months (January-July) 2021, %
Diagram 30. Forecast of the market volume, taking into account the households in 2021 - 2025, thousand tons
List of tables
Table 1. Forecasts of various sources for real GDP in India in 2021-2023 (base scenario), %
Table 2. CPI for diesel fuel in India in 2014-2020, %
Table 3. Index of agricultural production by all categories of Indian farms in the ""Crop production"" sector for 2014-2020, %
Table 4. Weighted average interest rates of credit institutions on credit operations in rupees, excluding PJSC Sberbank (% per annum), 2015-2020
Table 5. STEP analysis of factors affecting the watermelon market
Table 6. Main companies participating in the watermelon market in 2020
Table 7. Profiles of the Top 10 companies participating in the watermelon market in 2020
Table 8. Dynamics of watermelon production in India by union territories for all types of farms in 2016-2020, thousand tons
Table 9. Structure of watermelon imports by importing countries in 2020, %
Table 10. Tenders for the purchase of watermelons, for which contracts were concluded in the period from 01.01.2020/31.07.2021/2 to / / in the amount of more than million Rs.
Table 11. Tenders for the purchase of watermelons (except for contracts under the Federal Law-44) in 2020 in the amount of at least Rs 1 million.
Table 12. Average producer prices in the watermelon market (producer prices for gourds) by the Union Territories and States of India in 2016-2020, Rs./kg
Table 13. Average consumer prices in the watermelon market by Indian states for July 2021, Rs./kg
Table 14. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the watermelon market
Table 15. Main indicators of the forecast for the socio-economic development of India until 2024 (base case), units rev.
All reports