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Analysis of the unrefined sunflower oil market in India

Analysis of the unrefined sunflower oil market in India Analysis of the unrefined sunflower oil market in India
Release date 01.07.2020
Number of pages 66
Formats DOCX, PDF
Cost 45000 ₹

The relevance of research

Sunflower oil is one of the essential products, as it is traditionally used by households for cooking. In addition, vegetable oils are widely used in the confectionery, dairy, baking industries and in areas related to the production of instant products and various sauces.


Purpose of the study

Analysis of the state of the unrefined sunflower oil market, assessment of the market volume, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the unrefined sunflower oil market


Content

Part 1. Overview of the Indian market of unrefined sunflower oil

1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Dynamics of the market volume of unrefined sunflower oil 2015-2019 Potential market capacity
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.4. Stage of the life cycle of the unrefined sunflower oil market
1.5. Competition from substitute products

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the unrefined sunflower oil market

2.1. Major players in the market
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
2.3. Profiles of major players

Part 3. Analysis of the production of unrefined sunflower oil

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of unrefined sunflower oil
3.2. The share of exports in the production of unrefined sunflower oil
3.3. Segmentation of unrefined sunflower oil production by regions
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
3.3.2. Production by states of India

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of unrefined sunflower oil

4.1. The volume and dynamics of imports of unrefined sunflower oil
4.2. Import structure
4.3. The volume and dynamics of exports of unrefined sunflower oil
4.4. Export structure

Part 5. Analysis of unrefined sunflower oil consumption

5.1. Dynamics of unrefined sunflower oil consumption volume
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

Part 8. Market development forecast for unrefined sunflower oil until 2024

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions


Research excerpt

Part 1. Overview of the Indian market of unrefined sunflower oil

1.1. Main characteristics of the market

The Indian market of oil and fat products is one of the most capacious, saturated and … The main oilseeds cultivated in India are sunflower, … - they account for more than …% of the gross oilseed harvest, and sunflower, in particular, more than …% at the end of 2019 . 

Sunflower oil is a popular product…

In Europe, the plant came about in ...
...

Depending on the level of purification, all oil is divided into unrefined and processed (refined). The first one undergoes...

Sunflower oil belongs to the products of …, as it is traditionally used …

Unrefined sunflower oil, depending on the level of values ​​of quality indicators and purpose, is divided into brands.
...

The volume of the Indian market of unrefined sunflower oil is formed mainly due to the production of ... production - it currently accounts for almost ...%. The share of … unrefined sunflower oil for the period from 2015 to 2019 did not exceed …%.
… believes that the 2019/20 season has been very successful for Indian oilseed processors. … At the same time, record high profitability will give impetus to ... 

According to the leading expert … the main event of the sector is the approval of target indicators of the federal program for …

1.2. Dynamics of the market volume of unrefined sunflower oil 2015-2019 Potential market capacity

Consider the dynamics of the market volume of unrefined sunflower oil in natural terms.
...

As can be seen from the diagram, the volume of the domestic market for unrefined sunflower oil in India, calculated on the basis of …, actually … for the period presented. The linear trend line points to … for the last 5 years. In 2019, the market volume amounted to … mln tons, by …% by 2018.

According to … the potential of the Indian vegetable oil market is actually …

Other experts confirm: ...

Consider the potential of the market from a different point of view: according to nutritionists, the daily intake of unrefined vegetable oil per day for an adult ... This indicates an excess ... 

Here are some more data for comparison: ...

In India, each inhabitant has … kg of unrefined sunflower oil and … kg of refined sunflower oil. In total…

Thus, the potential capacity of the unrefined sunflower oil market in India is estimated by GidMarket as …% of the average annual market volume over the past 5 years, that is, approximately at …-… million tons.

Diagram 3. Revenue (net) from the sale of unrefined sunflower oil in the union territories for 2015 - 2019, %

 

In 2015-2018, the distribution of revenue between the federal districts was sufficient ..., in 2019, the share of ... to the Union Territories decreased significantly due to a significant increase ... in the flow of unrefined sunflower oil from this region, the share of ... to the Union Territories increased - it exceeded ...% due to an increase in production ...

1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market

Macroeconomic factors influence the dynamics of all sectors of the Indian economy, including the unrefined sunflower oil market. The main groups of factors are: economic, political, social and technological.

Economic

GDP (gross domestic product) is used to determine the rate of economic development of any state. GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the total value of goods, works and services that were ...

Chart 4 shows India's GDP growth rate from 2017 to 2019 at comparable prices (at 2016 prices). 

The impact of the crisis, which began in 2008, led to a decrease in GDP by …% in 2009, but then the growth rates were ...

Further, until 2014, the growth rate was …

In 2016, GDP …, following the results of 2017, this indicator demonstrates … dynamics, namely …% compared to the previous year. 

According to the review ... At the end of 2019, the GDP index amounted to …%.

Under the circumstances that currently (April-May 2020) negatively affect the size of GDP in the short and medium term, we indicate the opinions of experts.
...

According to expectations … in 2020 the global economy will experience the deepest recession since the Great Depression of 1929-1933, the decline in world GDP will be …%. According to the forecast...

Regarding India, experts predict a difficult and unpredictable period. …

Let's take a look at some of the experts' assessments: ...

Chart 5. Expert forecasts for a decline in real GDP in India in 2020 (baseline/neutral scenario), %

 

On April 26, Alesei Kudrin slightly corrected his forecast: he stated that …%. He also noted that in the current situation, an analogy with ...
… presented a forecast developed in two versions: basic and pessimistic. In the base scenario...

Thus, experts disagree significantly about the real dynamics of India's GDP in 2020: a decrease by …% is forecasted. Ministry of Economic Development …

Currently, the factor of the decline in GDP in 2020 has … an impact on the unrefined sunflower oil market under consideration.
...

Demographic (social)
...

technological
...

Political
...

We combine all these factors in the form of a STEP analysis.

Table 5. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the unrefined sunflower oil market

 

According to the results of the performed STEP-analysis, macro-environmental factors influence the unrefined sunflower oil market ... Economic factors currently have ... influence. The remaining groups of factors considered have an impact on the development of the market. 

Holding back market development in 2020: …

The positive impact on the market is...

1.4. Stage of the life cycle of the unrefined sunflower oil market
...

1.5. Competition from substitute products

The market for unrefined sunflower oil is experiencing competition from substitute products such as ... 

The decrease in the purchasing power of the population and the reorientation of demand for traditional and cheaper products contribute to …

In 2019, the production of refined sunflower oil …% compared to 2018. The production of unrefined sunflower oil is …%.

The market for unrefined sunflower oil is experiencing … influence from substitute products. The choice of the consumer of a particular product depends on ...

To reduce the negative impact of substitute products, operators of the unrefined sunflower oil market can be recommended to take more active …

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the unrefined sunflower oil market 

2.1. Major players in the market 

The largest producers of unrefined sunflower oil in India are: ...
… noted 2019 trends in the competitive environment in 2: consolidation of …; expansion...

2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors 

Diagram 18. Shares of the largest competitors-manufacturers in the unrefined sunflower oil market in 2019, %

 

The leaders in the unrefined sunflower oil market in India are the following companies: … with a share of …%, GC … with a share of …%, GC … with a share of …%, …

This market can be characterized as … and …: the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, calculated by GidMarket analysts, is ... Currently, the five largest players occupy …%. Other companies occupy …% of the market.

2.3. Profiles of major players

...

Part 3. Analysis of the production of unrefined sunflower oil

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of unrefined sunflower oil

…% caused …% in … year. Further, the indicator of the production volume of the considered type of oil shows …: for the period from 2015 to 2019, the increase was …%, the average annual growth rate is …%. The stagnation of the indicator ... is mainly associated with ...

At the end of 2019, the volume of production of unrefined sunflower oil amounted to … million tons, which is by …% … the value of the previous 2018, and is …

The assessment of the total revenue of the market leaders is complicated by the fact that the market operators are large ... For the period 2015-2019, the dynamics of the total revenue had ... character. In 2019, the indicator predictably amounted to … billion Rs., which is …% more than the value of 2018.

3.2. The share of exports in the production of unrefined sunflower oil

Diagram 21. The share of exports in production in kind for 2015–2019, %

 

During the period under review, the share of exports in the production of unrefined sunflower oil tends to … from …% in 2015 to …% in 2019. In 2018 alone, there was...

3.3. Segmentation of unrefined sunflower oil production by regions

3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
The largest share in the production of unrefined sunflower oil for the period 2015-2019 is invariably occupied by … Union Territories, … Union Territories and … Union Territories. In 2019, the …Union Territories accounted for …% of the production of unrefined sunflower oil, which corresponds to … mln t. … The Union Territories produced … mln t of products (…%), and … The Union Territories – … mln t (…%). Together, these federal districts account for …% of the total production of crude sunflower oil in India.

It should be noted that since 2015, the share of …Union Territories in the total production volume has decreased (by …%, in 2015 …Union Territories was the leader in terms of production), while the share of …

The rest of the federal districts lag far behind ...

3.3.2. Production by states of India
At the end of 2019, the largest volume of production was noted in the … region – … thousand tons, which is …% of the total production of unrefined sunflower oil. In second place is the indicator of … region – … thousand tons (…%). …

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of unrefined sunflower oil

4.1. The volume and dynamics of imports of unrefined sunflower oil

The dynamics of imports of unrefined sunflower oil in the period from 2015 to 2019 has … character. In physical terms, the indicator fluctuated from … to … thousand tons, in value terms – from … to … thousand dollars.

However, due to the fact that ..., then the volume of imports to India ... 

4.2. Import structure

In 2019, the CIS countries accounted for …% of unrefined sunflower oil imported to India, and the non-CIS countries for …%. The top three were:…

4.3. The volume and dynamics of exports of unrefined sunflower oil

...
Annual export volumes in 2015-2019 have … an impact on the volume dynamics of the crude sunflower oil market in India.

Diagram 27. Balance of exports and imports in 2015-2019, thousand tons

 

During the period under review, the trade balance in the unrefined sunflower oil market remains …: … exceeds … This indicates …

4.4. Export structure

In 2019, the largest volumes of unrefined sunflower oil were exported to the following countries (Top-5): … (the share in the total export amounted to …%), … (…%), ... The shares of each of the other exporting countries do not exceed … %.

The leading expert … noted that “the main trend of 2019 was the growing expansion of Indian vegetable oils and meal on …

In the general list of agro-importers from India, … following the results of the last (2019) year, confidently took the 1st place with an indicator of … billion. However, according to …, the geography of exports of domestic oil and fat products today … 

It should be noted that in 2015, relative to the structure of exports in 2019, the share of … (by …%), … decreased by more than …%, while the share of … (by …%), … increased by more than …%.

Part 5. Analysis of unrefined sunflower oil consumption

5.1. Dynamics of unrefined sunflower oil consumption volume

The dynamics of consumption of unrefined sunflower oil in India in average consumer prices has … character: in 2016 and 2018 the indicator is …, in 2017 and 2019 – ... The maximum value (… billion Rs.) was observed in … year and was associated to a greater extent with ..., to a lesser extent - with ...

5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

For the period from 01.01.20 to 15.05.20, more than … tenders were announced for the purchase of unrefined sunflower oil for amounts up to … million Rs. Quite often, in addition to oil, the list of purchased products at the tender includes ... There are also purchases that are carried out ... Of the tenders presented in the table, containing unrefined sunflower oil in their subject of supply, more than ...% are announced by ... enterprises, less than ...% - ...

Table 11. Tenders for the purchase of unrefined sunflower oil, for which contracts were concluded in the period from 01.01.2020/15.05.2020/5 to / / , in the amount of more than million Rs.

 

Analysis of information on competitive purchases of unrefined sunflower oil, available in the public domain, showed that:
- Clients are interested in...
- Data on purchases of unrefined sunflower oil are placed in a single system ...
- In general, based on the results of the procedures, the final discount can be ... and amount to ""minus"" ...% of the original price (typical for ...). The average discount on the considered contracts amounted to …%. …

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
...

In 2017 and 2018, the most expensive prices were observed among producers of … Union Territories (more than … thousand Rs./t), probably in 2019 it also leads in terms of prices, however, Rosstat …

In 2019, the average producer price of unrefined sunflower oil amounted to … thousand Rs./t, while prices below the Indian average were offered by producers … The Union Territories offered prices slightly higher than the Indian average …

In 2019, the average price in India was …%, while by region the price dynamics was …

6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India
...

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

The influence of ... factors of the investment climate of the unrefined sunflower oil market approximately corresponds to ... A comprehensive assessment of the factors of investment attractiveness is ... points - ... the investment climate. This means that within the industry under consideration there are …

The most significant positive factors. …

The most significant negative factors. …

Part 8. Market development forecast for unrefined sunflower oil until 2024 
...

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions 
...


Diagrams

Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the unrefined sunflower oil market in physical terms in 2015-2019,%
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the market volume of unrefined sunflower oil, 2015 - 2019, million tons
Diagram 3. Revenue (net) from the sale of unrefined sunflower oil in the union territories for 2015 - 2019, %
Diagram 4. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2007-2019, % to the previous year
Chart 5. Expert forecasts for a decline in real GDP in India in 2020 (baseline/neutral scenario), %
Chart 6. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2015-2020 (Jan-Apr.), Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 7. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, 2011 - 2019, % to the previous year
Diagram 8. Dynamics of India's IPP in 2014 - 2020 (Jan.-Mar.), % to the previous year
Diagram 9. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, 2013 - 2020 (Jan.-Mar.), % to the previous year
Diagram 10. Population dynamics in India as of January 1, 2010-2020, million people, %
Diagram 11. Population forecast in India for the period 2021-2024, million people
Diagram 12. Gross harvest of sunflower in India, 2015 - 2019, thousand tons
Diagram 13. Sunflower sown areas in 2015-2019, thousand ha
Diagram 14. Index of agricultural production for all categories of farms in India, 2013-2019, % to the previous year, in comparable prices
Chart 15. Dynamics of the average interest rate on loans, 2014-2020 (Jan-Feb.), %
Figure 16. Stage of the life cycle of the unrefined sunflower oil market
Diagram 17. The volume of production of refined and unrefined sunflower oil in India for 2015-2019, million tons
Diagram 18. Shares of the largest competitors-manufacturers in the unrefined sunflower oil market in 2019, %
Diagram 19. Dynamics of crude sunflower oil production in India for 2015 - 2019, million tons
Chart 20. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest producers (TOP-5) of unrefined sunflower oil in India, 2015-2019, billion Rs.
Diagram 21. The share of exports in production in kind for 2015–2019, %
Diagram 22. Shares of Indian states in the production of unrefined sunflower oil in 2019, %
Diagram 23. Volume and dynamics of imports of unrefined sunflower oil in physical terms in 2015-2019, thousand tons
Diagram 24. The volume and dynamics of imports of unrefined sunflower oil in monetary terms in 2015-2019, thousand dollars
Diagram 25. Dynamics of export of unrefined sunflower oil in physical terms in 2015-2019, million tons
Diagram 26. Dynamics of export of unrefined sunflower oil in monetary terms in 2015-2019, mln USD
Diagram 27. Balance of exports and imports in 2015-2019, thousand tons
Diagram 28. Structure of exports by countries in physical terms in 2019, %
Diagram 29. Dynamics of unrefined sunflower oil consumption in monetary terms (in average consumer prices), 2015 - 2019, billion Rs.
Diagram 30. Dynamics and volume of the unrefined sunflower oil market in 2007-2019, million tons, %
Diagram 31. Forecast of market volume in 2020 - 2024, million tons


Tables 

Table 1. Classification of unrefined sunflower oil
Table 2. Expert forecasts for a decline in real GDP in India in 2020 (baseline/neutral scenario), %
Table 3. Average producer prices for electricity in India at the end of the period in 2017-2019, rupees per unit of measurement, CPI for electricity supply services, %
Table 4. Weighted average interest rates of credit institutions on lending operations in rupees, excluding PJSC Sberbank (% per annum), 2015-2020 (Jan-Feb)
Table 5. STEP-analysis of factors influencing the unrefined sunflower oil market
Table 6. Comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of the product ""unrefined sunflower oil"" and its substitute products
Table 7. The main companies participating in the unrefined sunflower oil market in 2019
Table 8. Profiles of companies participating in the unrefined sunflower oil market in 2019
Table 9. Dynamics of unrefined sunflower oil production in India by union territories in 2015-2019, million tons
Table 10. Structure of imports of unrefined sunflower oil by importing countries in 2019, units rev.
Table 11. Tenders for the purchase of unrefined sunflower oil, for which contracts were concluded in the period from 01.01.2020/15.05.2020/5 to / / , in the amount of more than million Rs.
Table 12. Average producer prices in the unrefined sunflower oil market in the Union Territories in 2017-2019, Rs./t
Table 13. Average consumer prices in the sunflower oil market by states of India in 2015-2019, Rs./kg
Table 14. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the unrefined sunflower oil market


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