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Analysis of the toilet paper market in India

Release date 11.11.2020

Number of pages 51

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The relevance of research

The toilet paper market in this study refers to the totality of enterprises involved in the production of toilet paper; enterprises that form the offer of this market; consumers using the above product, forming demand; as well as their relationship between sellers and consumers of toilet paper within the geographical limits of India. Toilet paper is a paper product used for sanitary and hygienic purposes. Available in roll or sheet form

Purpose of the study

Analysis of the state of the toilet paper market, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the toilet paper market

Content

Part 1. Overview of the Indian toilet paper market

1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Dynamics of the market volume of toilet paper 2015-2019 Potential market capacity
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.4. Toilet paper market life cycle stage
1.5. Competition from substitute products

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the toilet paper market

2.1. Major players in the market
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
2.3. Profiles of major players

Part 3. Analysis of toilet paper production

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of toilet paper
3.2. Share of exports in toilet paper production
3.3. Segmentation of toilet paper production by region
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
3.3.2. Production by states of India

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade deliveries of toilet paper

4.1. The volume and dynamics of imports of toilet paper
4.2. Structure of imports by countries
4.3. The volume and dynamics of exports of toilet paper
4.4. Structure of exports by countries

Part 5. Analysis of toilet paper consumption

5.1. Dynamics of toilet paper consumption
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

Part 8. Market forecast for toilet paper until 2024

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions

Research excerpt

Part 1. Overview of the Indian toilet paper market

1.1. Main characteristics of the market

Consider the characteristics and features of the toilet paper market.

Toilet paper is a paper product used for sanitary and hygienic purposes. Available in roll or sheet form.

Toilet paper is made from special paper for sanitary purposes, the raw material for which is waste paper (""grey"" types of paper) or cellulose (""white"" types of paper).

Toilet paper can be classified into single-layer, two-layer and multi-layer (three-layer, less often with 4-6 layers). The mass of a square meter of one layer of paper usually ranges from 15 (for multi-layer) to 35 (for single-layer) grams. The mass of a typical roll ranges from 50 to 150 grams.

Since the end of the twentieth century, many manufacturers began to produce wet toilet paper, which some manufacturers recommend using after regular toilet paper as a final stage.

Toilet paper rolls are available with or without an inner cardboard core. The presence of the sleeve allows you to fix the roll on a special holder for toilet paper. Some manufacturers produce a water-soluble sleeve.

The characteristics of toilet paper are almost entirely dependent on the base. Standard paper does not dissolve in water, but gets wet easily and loses strength many times when wet. After wetting and subsequent drying, the paper sheet also loses its shape, decreasing unevenly in size at the site of wetting.

By appointment, professional and household toilet paper is distinguished (the first one is distinguished by a large long roll, usually 1-ply).

More than 400 enterprises in India are engaged in the production of toilet paper. They conduct their activities mainly by types of OKVED2:
- (17.12) Manufacture of paper and paperboard;
- (17.21) Manufacture of corrugated paper and cardboard, paper and cardboard containers;
- (17.22) Manufacture of paper products for household and sanitary purposes.

Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the toilet paper market,%

The main trends in the Indian toilet paper market include:
...

1.2. Dynamics of the market volume of toilet paper 2015-2019 Potential market capacity

Consider the volume dynamics of the toilet paper market.
...

According to GidMarket analysts based on Rosstat data, the leading positions in terms of revenue (net) from the sale of toilet paper in 2019. occupies the Volga Federal District ...

In fourth place in terms of revenue share among federal districts …

1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market

Let's consider the main factors influencing the market and, accordingly, the demand for toilet paper.

Social factors

Population
According to Rosstat as of 01.01.2020/ / . The population of India amounted to … million people.
...

The level of real disposable income of the population

The real disposable income of the population is one of the most important factors influencing the development of the Indian economy in general and each industry in particular.

Economic forces

Dynamics of India's Gross Domestic Product
The dynamics of GDP is a determining factor in the development of the country's economy, it forms the main trends in consumer effective demand and economic activity.
...

Investment projects
...

Political factors

Pandemic COVID-19
As of early June 2020 market players did not note the critical impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the decline in sales amid the unfolding economic crisis.

The production of toilet paper did not stop for epidemiological reasons, the main difficulties for manufacturers were related to logistics and the need to redistribute trade flows.

In accordance with the Order of the Government of India dated March 27.03.2020, 762 No. -r, which approved the recommended list of non-food essential goods, organizations that provide the population with essential goods include organizations and individual entrepreneurs that provide the entire commodity distribution chain of such goods from the manufacturer to the final consumer, including manufacturers, suppliers, distributors, transport and logistics organizations, logistics complexes, organizations providing services for the preparation, processing, packaging of goods and other similar services, etc. In accordance with the Decree on the Declaration of Public Holidays in India, the introduction of non-working days did not apply to employees of organizations that provide the population with food and essential goods.

Packaging and packaging of food and essential goods is a prerequisite for their release into circulation on the commodity market, that is, it enters the production chain.

Thus, manufacturers of paper and cardboard packaging, pulp producers, paper and cardboard producers, toilet paper producers, waste paper collectors, collectors and carriers are organizations that provide the commodity distribution chain for the production of food and essential goods.

State support for small and medium-sized businesses

There are various programs to support small and medium-sized businesses, most companies in the toilet paper market belong to this segment, let's look at them.

Federal business support programs:
...
The Government of India temporarily allowed to increase the amount of advance payments on government contracts up to 50%
...
Moratorium on penalties for government contracts until the end of 2020

Write-off by the customer of the amounts of penalties accrued and unpaid by the contractor under the state contract as a result of non-fulfillment or incomplete fulfillment of obligations under the state contract in connection with the spread of a new coronavirus infection.

Postponement of lease due to COVID-19 pandemic

The deferred payment of lease payments applies to state, municipal and private property (with the exception of residential premises). For owners of commercial real estate, the Government recommends reducing rents for companies. To do this, the landlord and the tenant must conclude an additional agreement.
...

Technological factors

For the development of the toilet paper industry, it is necessary to implement Industry 4.0 digital innovations, implemented with the help of advanced technologies.

The Industry 4.0 concept encompasses many technologies. There are several main components that define Industry 4.0 at its core, which together create new opportunities for the textile industry in general, including for enterprises that are participants in the toilet paper market.

Smart factory. Smart Manufacturing
Today, the concept of a smart factory means the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence, robots and the Internet of Things (IoT), additive manufacturing technologies and augmented reality, which allows production to work largely autonomously, with the ability to self-correct. The main thing in a smart factory is the transparency and interconnection of processes and systems, as well as autonomy, the ability to do without significant human intervention. Today's smart manufacturing systems can learn and adapt in near real time, allowing businesses to be much more agile than ever.

Cyber-physical systems
Cyber-physical systems are an integration of computing, network and physical processes, it is a complex system of computing and physical elements that constantly receives data from the environment and uses them to further optimize control processes. Computers and networks control physical processes with feedback loops, the physical system responds, the system uses software to interpret actions and track results. Computers monitor and control physical processes using a feedback loop where what happens in physical systems affects computing and vice versa.

Internet of Things (IoT)
Industrial Internet IIoT (Industrial Internet of Things). This is a complex system for collecting, transmitting, storing and processing data on the production process received from sensors and sensors that control the operation of machines, machine tools, and equipment. The data from the sensors enter the IT system, and it, firstly, analyzes them to provide material for technological and managerial decisions, and secondly, it uses them as the basis for machine learning.

Table 1. STEP analysis of factors affecting the toilet paper market

Macro-environmental factors have both positive and negative impact on the toilet paper market, however, economic and political factors have a determining influence.

Such economic factors as the decline in GDP negatively affect the toilet paper market, the growth of the dollar exchange rate both negatively and positively - stimulating the export earnings of manufacturers, the implementation of investment projects - positively.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a positive impact on the growth in demand and consumption of toilet paper.

According to the results of the STEP analysis, economic and political factors have a decisive influence, which in the end will have a more positive impact on the development of the toilet paper market.

1.4. Toilet paper market life cycle stage

Consider the life cycle model of the toilet paper market.

The toilet paper market life cycle model shown in the diagram shows the development of the toilet paper market as a line of revenue over time, or it is also called the market life cycle curve. There are four stages in the market life cycle:
- Formation of the market;
- Growth;
- Maturity;
- Aging.
...

The toilet paper market is at the stage of the life cycle - growth, which is characterized by an increase in the volume of production and consumption of the service.
...

In the growth stage of the market, there are two main strategies that companies follow:
- market leader strategy;
attacker's strategy.

The goal of a market leader is to maintain a high market share that provides some power in the industry. The dominant company needs to determine what % of the market share will provide stable leadership in the segment.

Tactical actions of the market leader company:
- development of demand in the toilet paper market;
- protecting existing customers and current market share;
- increase in market share due to weak players.

For companies with a small market share and new companies that are just entering the market, the second strategy is the attacker strategy, the goal of which is to increase market share.

Tactical actions:
- increasing the market share of toilet paper at the expense of the weakest players;
- increase in market share at the expense of the market leader in areas that are not priority and profile for him;
- use the weaknesses of the leader to develop their advantages.

1.5. Competition from substitute products

Let's analyze products-substitutes for toilet paper.

Substitute products are products that perform the same function for the same consumer group, but are based on a different technology.

In fact, the prices of substitute goods determine the maximum price that enterprises operating in the market can charge. The more attractive a substitute product is to users, the more limited the company's ability to raise prices.

If we consider the availability of toilet paper substitute products, then potential consumers can replace toilet paper with just paper, newspapers, etc., but they do not buy these products in order to use them for the intended use of toilet paper, but rather use them as a secondary benefit, or in an emergency when you run out of toilet paper. The main product - a substitute for toilet paper - is water.

The use of water is preferred mainly in Muslim countries, since Islam recommends water for purification, in 2015. Turkey's highest religious council has issued a fatwa allowing Muslims to use toilet paper if water is not available.

They also use water in Asia, for example, in India, in Japan. The famous modern Japanese toilets provide an opportunity to both wash and dry.

However, this trend is not widespread, for example, in European countries, India, the United States prefer to use toilet paper to a greater extent.

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the toilet paper market

2.1. Major players in the market

To the largest companies in the Indian toilet paper market in 2019 relate:
- LLC ""XXX"";
- LLC ""XXX"";
- LLC ""XXX"";
- CJSC XXX;
...

2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors

When conducting a competitive analysis, the first-degree criterion in determining the market share of competitors was the amount of revenue of a legal entity or a set of legal entities belonging to one group of companies.

Diagram 9. Shares of the largest competitors in the toilet paper market in 2019, %

According to GidMarket, the leader of the toilet paper market in India in 2019. is xxx

2.3. Profiles of major players

According to GidMarket, based on retrospective data, the total revenue of the TOP-5 largest enterprises in the production of toilet paper in India at the end of 2019 amounted to … billion Rs.

For the period 2015-2019 India's top toilet paper revenues up …

Part 3. Analysis of toilet paper production

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of toilet paper

Consider the volume and dynamics of toilet paper production in India.

Over the past five years, India has seen a rise in the production of toilet paper.
...

Diagram 11. Dynamics of toilet paper production in India for 2015 - 2019, billion rubles

3.2. Share of exports in toilet paper production

The share of exports in the production of toilet paper in India is small.

3.3. Segmentation of toilet paper production by region

3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
Consider the geographic segmentation of toilet paper production in India. Geographic segmentation - dividing the market into different geographical units: countries, regions, regions, cities, districts. We will define and measure the geographical segments of the production of toilet paper in the union territories.
...

3.3.2. Production by states of India
Consider the production of toilet paper by state in India.
...

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade deliveries of toilet paper

4.1. The volume and dynamics of imports of toilet paper

Toilet paper imports occupy a small share of the market and have been declining over the past five years.

Diagram 13. Volume and dynamics of imports of toilet paper in physical terms

In 2019 the volume of imports of toilet paper decreased by ...% and reached - ... mln USD.

4.2. Structure of imports by countries

In the structure of imports of toilet paper in 2019. occupies the largest share...
...

4.3. The volume and dynamics of exports of toilet paper

India's toilet paper export volume in 2015 totaled ... thous. t.
...

Diagram 17. Balance of exports and imports

The balance of foreign trade in toilet paper is positive.

4.4. Structure of exports by countries

Consider the structure of exports in the toilet paper market in 2019.

The structure of India's toilet paper exports is dominated by the supply of toilet paper to the CIS countries, their share is ...%.
...

Part 5. Analysis of toilet paper consumption

5.1. Dynamics of toilet paper consumption
Estimated volume of per capita consumption of toilet paper in India was made by GidMarket on the basis of the ratio of the volume of the Indian toilet paper market to the population of India.
...

Diagram 19. Dynamics of toilet paper consumption in monetary terms, 2015 - 2019, Rs./person

Recently, the growth of the market has been driven by an increase in the level of consumption of these products in India, which for many years is significantly lower than in other countries. The culture of consumption of sanitary and hygienic products in India continues to take shape.

One of the important factors in the development of consumption is the differentiation and expansion of the product line. The variety of products of constant demand indicates that the producer with the widest assortment wins.

5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

We will analyze the results of tenders for the purchase of toilet paper in India in 2019.

According to GidMarket, based on an analysis of the results of tenders held in India on the Unified Information System in the field of procurement, in 2019. tenders were held for toilet paper for ...million Rs. according to NMCC.
...

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories

The shortage of raw paper partly provoked local enterprises, which, under the influence of the growth of exchange rates, switched to the export of pulp abroad. As a result, prices for paper raw materials in the domestic market went up, and after them, the price of all finished products also increased.

Enterprises that, in addition to their production capacities, have their own raw material base and therefore have the resource to control selling prices for their products, which ultimately made them more competitive in the market, turned out to be in a winning position.
...

An analysis of prices by Union Territories showed that the highest prices ...

6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

Average consumer prices by states in India are presented in the table below.
...

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

The most significant negative factors
...
The most significant positive factors
...

Part 8. Market forecast for toilet paper until 2024

We will analyze the market based on methods based on identifying trends over time, adjusted for expert opinion in the industry.

The following factors make it possible to predict the volume dynamics of the toilet paper market:
...

Consider two scenarios for the development of the toilet paper industry in terms of self-isolation due to COVID-19:
- Scenario of one self-isolation (according to the Chinese release schedule);
- Scenario for the introduction of two self-isolations (when repeated in autumn).
...

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions

More than 400 enterprises in India are engaged in the production of toilet paper. In five years, the number of toilet paper businesses in India ...
...

The main trends in the Indian toilet paper market include:
...

According to GidMarket, based on an analysis of the results of tenders held in India on the Unified Information System and in the field of procurement in 2019. the volume of purchases of toilet paper amounted to ... mln Rs.

Toilet paper businesses in India can be recommended:
...

Diagrams

Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the toilet paper market,%
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the volume of the toilet paper market, 2015 - 2019, billion Rs.
Diagram 3. Revenue (net) from the sale of toilet paper by union territories for 2015 - 2019, %
Diagram 4. Population dynamics in India, as of 01 Jan. 2013-2020, million people
Diagram 5. Dynamics of real disposable income of the population in India, 2012-2019, % to the previous year
Diagram 6. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-2019, % to the previous year
Chart 7. Dynamics of the average monthly exchange rate of the US dollar against the rupee, 2014-2019, Jan-March 2020, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 8. The life cycle of the toilet paper market
Diagram 9. Shares of the largest competitors in the toilet paper market in 2019, %
Diagram 10. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest manufacturers (TOP-5) of toilet paper in India, 2015-2019, billion Rs.
Diagram 11. Dynamics of toilet paper production in India for 2015 - 2019, billion rubles
Diagram 12. The share of exports in production for 2015–2019, %
Diagram 13. Volume and dynamics of imports of toilet paper in physical terms
Diagram 14. Volume and dynamics of imports of toilet paper in monetary terms
Chart 15. Dynamics of toilet paper exports in physical terms
Diagram 16. Dynamics of exports of toilet paper in monetary terms
Diagram 17. Balance of exports and imports
Chart 18. Structure of exports by countries in 2019, %
Diagram 19. Dynamics of toilet paper consumption in monetary terms, 2015 - 2019, Rs./person
Diagram 20. Volume of tenders for toilet paper, 2019, million Rs.
Diagram 21. Forecast of market size in 2020 - 2024 (one self-isolation), billion Rs.
Diagram 22. Forecast of market size in 2020 - 2024 (two self-isolation), billion Rs.

Tables

Table 1. STEP analysis of factors affecting the toilet paper market
Table 2. The main companies participating in the toilet paper market in 2019
Table 3. Profiles of companies participating in the toilet paper market in 2019
Table 4. Dynamics of toilet paper production in India by union territories, thousand rubles
Table 5. Dynamics of toilet paper production in India by region, thousand rubles
Table 6. Toilet paper import structure by importing countries in 2019, %
Table 7. Average producer prices in the toilet paper market by Union Territories, Rs./thous. roll.
Table 8. Average consumer prices in the toilet paper market by states of India, Rs./rule.
Table 9. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the toilet paper market
Table 10. Analysis of the dynamics of the growth rate of the toilet paper market in value terms during the economic crises of previous years, %

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