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Analysis of the smoked fish market in India

Release date 31.07.2021

Number of pages 43

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The relevance of research

Fish smoking is a culinary treatment method in which the thermal effect is combined with the exposure of the fish to the combustion products of special types of wood. Absorbed into pre-salted fish, these substances give the fish a unique smoked smell and taste, and also extend the shelf life of smoked fish.

Purpose of the study

Analysis of the state of the smoked fish market, assessment of the market volume, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the market of smoked fish

Content

Part 1. Overview of the Indian Smoked Fish Market

1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Dynamics of the market volume of smoked fish 2016-2020 Potential market capacity
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.4. Life cycle stage of the smoked fish market
1.5. Competition from substitute products

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the smoked fish market

2.1. Major players in the market
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
2.3. Profiles of major players

Part 3. Analysis of smoked fish production

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of smoked fish
3.2. Share of exports in the production of smoked fish
3.3. Segmentation of smoked fish production by regions
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
3.3.2. Production by states of India

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of smoked fish

4.1. Volume and dynamics of smoked fish imports
4.2. Import structure
4.3. The volume and dynamics of exports of smoked fish
4.4. Export structure

Part 5. Analysis of consumption of smoked fish

5.1. Dynamics of smoked fish consumption
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market

Part 8. Forecast for the development of the smoked fish market until 2025

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions

Research excerpt

Part 1. Overview of the Indian Smoked Fish Market

1.1. Main characteristics of the market

There are three types of smoking: hot, cold and semi-hot.

Hot-smoked fish is characterized by a delicate texture, crumbly flesh, free separation of bones. Hot smoking implies the lowest salt content due to the use of high temperatures. It consists of several stages: gutting the fish, drying in the oven, boiling in brine and directly smoking on wood with the stimulation of abundant smoke. The higher the concentration of smoke smoke, the richer the taste of smoked fish will be. The density of smoke also affects the color of hot smoked fish. It takes about two hours from the beginning of the first stage to the extraction of the finished product.

Cold-smoked smoked fish is denser in texture, more salty and has a longer shelf life than hot-smoked fish. Cold smoking of fish lasts up to 4-7 days under a direct stream of cold smoke. Salting of smoked fish prepared in this way takes place in a more concentrated brine, drying lasts up to three days in the open air, which allows you to save the juiciness of the fish pulp and fat in the carcass. Cold-smoked fish is considered more delicacy and valuable.

The semi-hot method includes both heat treatment and long-term cold smoking.

Some manufacturers deliberately violate the cooking technology, use ""liquid smoke"" and even try to hide spoilage of fish by smoking.

It is most profitable to smoke fish grown in local reservoirs. Customers are familiar with it, and, as a rule, catering establishments must include it in the menu. Smoked fish is also found imported, cooked directly at the place of catch. The shelf life of such fish is extended by vacuum packaging.

The Indian smoked fish market is dominated by domestic products.

Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the smoked fish market, 2016-2020, %

1.2. Dynamics of the market volume of smoked fish 2016-2020 Potential market capacity

Over a five-year period (from 2016 to 2020), the volume of the smoked fish market has increased ...

Smoked fish occupies a small share in the Indian food market. This is due to the fact that the average per capita consumption of smoked fish is less compared to other groups of food products (fruits and vegetables, dairy, meat and other foodstuffs).

Diagram 3. Revenue (net) from the sale of smoked fish in the union territories for 2016 - 2020, %

1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market

Consider the main factors affecting the market and, accordingly, demand.

Economic

Dynamics of GDP. GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services produced in a year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation.
The dynamics of India's GDP is decisive in the vector of development of the entire economy of the country and determines the key trends in consumer effective demand and economic activity.
...
Социальные

Population decline. During 2012-2017 India's population has shown a positive trend. However, in 2018, the vector changed - the population decreased due to the natural population decline in 2016-2019.
...

Real disposable money income

Real disposable money income per capita is income minus mandatory payments, adjusted for inflation. This factor determines the level of effective demand of buyers, is one of the key reasons for the formation of the dynamics of both retail turnover and demand for services.
...

Consumer preferences

The modern buyer, especially from the millennial generation, appreciates the simplicity and convenience in cooking and will purchase products that need to be cooked for no more than 15-20 minutes, which will positively affect the smoked fish market. The consumption of semi-finished fish products will gradually fall, primarily frozen fish without a head, the preparation of which objectively requires a lot of time and effort. However, the fashion for eco-trends in food products, which smoked fish does not correspond to, will continue to grow among consumers. Multidimensional factor.

technological

Vegetable fish. Meat alternatives are growing in popularity as consumers demand more variety. Now plant-based fish is the next trend, and companies are inventing new food products that imitate seafood.

Startups and large corporations are showing interest in plant-based fish. Atlantic Natural Foods launched TUNO in 2018, a fish-free tuna alternative made with soy, yeast, and sunflower extract. In 2019, Impossible Foods announced it was working on plant-based fish, and Good Catch raised $2020 million in January 32 to fund its plant-based seafood. Nestlé launched a plant-based tuna salad in August 2020. The company recommends using plant-based tuna for salads, sandwiches and pizzas.

Companies are responding to what they see in the seafood industry and the trend to expand the range of plant-based alternatives. The fishing industry has faced numerous challenges in recent years, from environmental issues to concerns about mercury. The recent coronavirus outbreak has created additional pressure, including shortages in grocery stores. All of these factors have created a combination that is pushing consumers to opt for plant-based fish instead of regular tuna.
...

Technological backlog

Taste trends have recently been very busy food technologists. The search for something new, different and exciting is at the heart of food and beverage development. This is fueled by consumers' continued interest in natural products, clean labels and healthier options, and their desire for new taste experiences. In order to attract the consumer, brands prefer more surprising and unusual flavor blends, as well as more intense taste sensations.

Today, technologists of processing enterprises are increasingly required to show a product that will be able to withstand the rapidly growing competition on the shelves not only in terms of wrapping, but also in taste, aroma and useful qualities.

At the same time, technologies for the production of smoked fish are not being improved in any way. In addition, there are many articles on the harm of smoked fish. Lagging behind modern trends in the smoked fish industry negatively affects the market.

Political

State control

Opening a fish business requires interaction with government agencies, namely, obtaining consent to conduct economic activities from the SES, Rosprirodnadzor, Rostekhnadzor, the veterinary service and the Ministry of Emergency Situations.
A license for the production of fish products is not required by law, however, you will have to issue certificates for each manufactured item, and this is also an additional cost. This aspect should be given special attention, since the SES will monthly monitor the quality of fish products. The room must also meet the mass of sanitary and hygienic requirements.

The development of the fisheries complex

The fishing industry is one of the traditional industries in India. The main activities of the fishing industry include fishing (fishing), fish breeding (fish farming), as well as processing and production of the main types of fish products.
...

Concluding the assessment of the impact factors on the Indian market of smoked fish, we will summarize the key ones in the framework of the STEP-analysis.

Table 1. STEP analysis of factors affecting the smoked fish market

According to the results of the performed STEP-analysis, macro-environment factors have a negative impact on the development of the smoked fish market to a greater extent.

Among the significant negative factors are the export orientation of the domestic fishery complex, the technological backwardness of the industry, the production of vegetable fish, government control, the fashion for eco-trends in food, the decline in population, the decline in real incomes of the population, the dynamics of GDP, as well as the instability of exchange rates.

1.4. Life cycle stage of the smoked fish market

The smoked fish market is in the stage of life cycle maturity. The maturity stage is the longest of all life cycle stages. It is built on the consumption of conservative consumers, on the popularity and wide representation of the product, which ensures a stable level of sales over a long period.

The level of competition in the smoked fish market has reached its maximum and is stabilizing, which, in the face of a slowdown in growth, creates a more aggressive struggle for existing consumers. A high value at the stage of maturity gets the speed of the company's reaction to the actions of competitors. Price competition in the smoked fish market is reduced and turns into short-term price promotions for consumers only. Now the emphasis is on the display of goods, its visibility on the shelf in the store among a large number of competitors.
...

1.5. Competition from substitute products

The main competitor of smoked fish is canned fish. Depending on the methods of preparation and purpose, canned fish is usually divided into the following groups: natural, in tomato sauce, in oil, pates and pastes, fish and vegetable, dietary. The demand for canned fish is subject to seasonal fluctuations, for example, items such as sprats are relevant before the holidays, and sprats in tomato are a typical summer product.

The consumption of canned fish in India is in the range of 1,4 kg/person, which is three times higher than the consumption of smoked fish.

The coronavirus outbreak has highlighted the need for affordable, non-perishable food that can be stocked in sufficient quantities during the lockdown. Canned fish was popular. Also, unlike most markets, a decrease in household income increases the demand for canned fish due to their low cost.

Thus, the impact on the market of smoked fish from the substitute product ""canned fish"" is high.

Part 2. Competitive analysis in the smoked fish market

2.1. Major players in the market

It is rather problematic to single out the largest players in the market of smoked fish due to the fact that the production of smoked fish in large Indian fish processing companies, as a rule, occupies a small share of the total production.
...
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors

The assessment of the shares of the largest operators in the market of smoked fish was made by the GidMarket company based on the forecasted revenue of the companies, taking into account the share of smoked fish production in the total assortment of the company.
At the end of 2020 ... leads in terms of revenue from sales of smoked fish with market share, according to GidMarket ... The second place is occupied by ...

From the point of view of competitive concentration, the market is classified as low-concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI <1000). Mergers and acquisitions are allowed without hindrance.

2.3. Profiles of major players

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Part 3. Analysis of smoked fish production

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of smoked fish

The volume of smoked fish production in 2020 amounted to ...
...

3.2. Share of exports in the production of smoked fish

The export direction in the Indian market of smoked fish is poorly developed.
...

3.3. Segmentation of smoked fish production by regions

3.3.1. Production by Union Territories

The largest volume of production among all federal districts in the entire study period falls on the Central Federal District. According to Rosstat, in 2020, this district produced ...

3.3.2. Production by states of India

The largest states producing smoked fish in India in 2020 were ...

Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of smoked fish

4.1. Volume and dynamics of smoked fish imports

During the analyzed period, there was a decrease in imports only in 2019 by ...

The dynamics of the value of imports in dollar terms is somewhat different.

4.2. Import structure

Almost all deliveries of smoked fish to India come from Belarus...

4.3. The volume and dynamics of exports of smoked fish

In 2018, the export of smoked fish more than tripled due to the growth in supplies to Belarus, reaching its maximum value in the period under review: ...
...

4.4. Export structure

The main volume of smoked fish, in value terms, exported from India in 2020 is supplied ...

Part 5. Analysis of consumption of smoked fish

5.1. Dynamics of smoked fish consumption

The dynamics of consumption of smoked fish has a positive trend. ...

5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase

Tenders for the supply of smoked fish are carried out both under 44-FZ and 223-FZ. In addition to smoked fish, the list of products purchased under the tender often includes other food products.
Due to the large number of tenders for the purchase of smoked fish, the table includes announced tenders with initial contract prices of more than 15 million Rs.
...

The largest tender for the purchase of smoked fish in 2020 was announced by the GKU ...

Part 6. Price Analysis

6.1. Average producer prices by union territories

Producer prices of smoked fish have increased over the three-year period in India as a whole ...

In general, the increase in prices is due to fluctuations in fish production, associated not only with the natural conditions for the reproduction of fish stocks, but also with certain economic and political factors, as well as government regulation measures. These include the physical wear and tear of fishing vessels, the reduction of catch zones in the World Ocean due to the imposition of sanctions by a number of states, and the unprofitability of fishing in regions of the World Ocean remote from Indian ports, the establishment of quotas for catching fish and biological resources, depending on the predicted state of their stocks. .

6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India

Rosstat combines consumer prices for smoked and salted fish, separating delicacy types of fish (salmon, trout, butterfish, etc.)

The most expensive prices for smoked and salted fish in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug ... . The cheapest prices are observed in the Republic of Ingushetia ... .
...

Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market
...

Negative factors of the investment climate in the smoked fish market dominate over the positive ones.

The most significant positive factors.
...

The most significant negative factors.
...

Part 8. Forecast for the development of the smoked fish market until 2025

Analysis of the impact of recent crises on the industry

An economic crisis is a profound disruption of normal economic activity, which is accompanied by the destruction of habitual economic ties, a decrease in business activity, the inability to repay debts and the accumulation of debt obligations. This is a phenomenon of a market economy, repeating with a certain frequency, and depending on the scale, it can either concern a particular state or be of global importance. The crisis is accompanied by a sharp decline in production, bankruptcy of enterprises, a fall in the gross national product, a large-scale increase in unemployment, and often a depreciation of the national currency.
In the first half of 2020, many markets felt the impact of the pandemic and the onset of the economic crisis.
...

Analysis of the impact on the state aid industry as of 03.02.21/ /

The Indian economy in February-March 2020 was under the powerful influence of two negative factors at once - the rapid spread of the covid-19 coronavirus infection pandemic and its detrimental impact on the global economy, as well as the collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rupiah depreciated significantly against the dollar and the euro. In response to the situation, the government and the Bank of India have approved several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
Forecast of scenarios for the development of the industry in terms of quarantine due to covid-2019:
...

Analysis of existing cases of business restructuring in the industry
...

Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions

The Indian smoked fish market is dominated by domestic products.
...

Macro-environment factors have an impact on the development of the smoked fish market ...
...

For existing and new market operators, we note the following:
...

Diagrams

Diagram 1. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the smoked fish market, 2016-2020, %
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the market volume of smoked fish, 2016 - 2020, thousand tons
Diagram 3. Revenue (net) from the sale of smoked fish in the union territories for 2016 - 2020,%
Diagram 4. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2012-2020, % to the previous year
Diagram 5. Monthly dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, Rs. for 1 US dollar, 2015-Feb. 2021
Diagram 6. Dynamics of the population of India, million people, as of 01 Jan. 2012-2021
Diagram 7. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of India, % to the previous year, 2012-2020
Diagram 8. Industry life cycle stage
Diagram 9. Shares of the largest competitors in the smoked fish market in 2020,%
Diagram 10. Dynamics of smoked fish production in India for 2016 - 2020, tons
Diagram 11. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest producers (TOP-5) of smoked fish in India, 2016-2020
Diagram 12. The share of exports in production for 2016–2020, %
Chart 13. Smoked fish production in India by states of India, 2020, %
Diagram 14. Volume and dynamics of smoked fish imports in physical terms, 2016-2020, tons
Diagram 15. Volume and dynamics of smoked fish imports in monetary terms, 2016-2020, thousand US dollars
Diagram 16. Dynamics of exports of smoked fish in physical terms, 2016-2020, tons
Diagram 17. Dynamics of exports of smoked fish in monetary terms, 2016-20205, thousand US dollars
Diagram 18. Balance of exports and imports, 2016-2020, million Rs.
Chart 19. Structure of exports by countries in 2020,%
Diagram 20. Dynamics of consumption of smoked fish in physical terms, 2016 - 2020, kg / person
Diagram 21. Forecast of the market size of smoked fish in 2021-2025 – under the scenario of one quarantine, thousand tons
Diagram 22. Forecast of the market volume of smoked fish in 2021-2025 – under the scenario of two quarantines, thousand tons

Tables

Table 1. STEP analysis of factors affecting the smoked fish market
Table 2. Main companies participating in the smoked fish market in 2020
Table 3. Profiles of companies participating in the smoked fish market in 2020
Table 4. Dynamics of smoked fish production in India by union territories, 2016-2020, tons
Table 5. Structure of smoked fish imports by importing countries in 20204
Table 6. Data on tenders for the purchase of smoked fish announced in 2020 with a contract amount of more than 15 million Rs.
Table 7. Average producer prices in the smoked fish market across the Union Territories, 2017, 2020, Rs./ton
Table 8. Average consumer prices for smoked and salted fish by states of India, 2020, Rs./kg.
Table 9. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the smoked fish market
Table 10. Assessment of the impact of recent crises on the industry

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