Analysis of the coking coal market in India

The relevance of research

Coking coals are a strategically important raw material for the metallurgical and coke-chemical industries, which determines their high technological value.

Purpose of the study

Analysis of the state of the coking coal market, assessment of the market volume, as well as identification of factors affecting the coking coal market

Content

Part 1. Overview of the coking coal market in India

1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.3. Production volume
1.4. Dynamics of market volume 2016-2018 Potential market capacity
1.5. Market structure by grades of coking coal: KO (Kokovy lean), KS (Kokovy low-caking) and OS (lean caking)
1.6. Description of pricing mechanisms in the market

Part 2. Overview of the general situation in the coking coal markets in the World

Part 3. Forecast for the development of the coking coal market by grade (CO, CC, OS) until 2024 in India

Part 4. Recommendations and conclusions

Research excerpt

Part 1. Overview of the coking coal market in India
1.1. Main characteristics of the market 
Coking coals (a. coking coals) - black coals of the middle stages of coalification, of which ...
Coking coals, unlike other hard coals, …
Coking coal is the raw material for…
According to the degree of chemical maturity, coke coals are ...
Coke coals are...
Coking coal accounts for …% of the total coal production in India. Coking coal production is on the rise..
In 2018, … tons of coking coal were mined, which is by …% … the level of 2017. The share of exports in production is …, currently amounting to …%. More than …% of the coking coal market is occupied by domestic products. In the period 2016-2018. share of imported products …%.

1.2. Assessment of factors affecting the market 
The main driver of coal production growth by Indian companies remains ... It should be noted that the lower cost of Indian coal ...
Economic
Data on the dynamics of GDP is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the market value of all final goods and services (that is, intended for direct consumption) produced per year in all sectors of the economy on the territory of the state for consumption, export and accumulation. 
As shown in Chart 1, for the period 2011-2014. observed... 
According to the results of 2017 - 2018. GDP growth...
Demographic
...
technological
...
Environmental
...
Political
...
Table 2. STEP analysis of factors affecting the coking coal market
 
In general, the Indian coking coal market is experiencing macro factors ... the influence of a weak force. Basically, the market development is negatively influenced by … The influence of political factors – … 
The main drivers of the coking coal market are the …

1.3. Production volume
To assess the dynamics and development trends of the coking coal market in India allows ... As shown in diagram 6, the volume of coking coal production in India in 2014-2018. …%.
In 2018, … tons of coking coal were mined, which is by …% … the level of 2017.
In the structure of coking coal production in the Union Territories, … Union Territories is leading, occupying …% in the overall structure of production in India. In 2018 … Union Territories occupies …%, for the period 2014-2018. share of this federal district … p.p. The … Union Territories accounted for …% of India’s total coking coal production in 2018, share of …
Diagram 7. Structure of coking coal production by union territories, 2014-2018.
 
At the end of 2018, investments in fixed assets in the coal mining and processing industry in India as a whole amounted to … Rs., … by …% compared to the level of 2017. …% of investments in the coal mining and processing industry accounted for ... During the period 2014-2018. ... accounted for ...% of all-India investments in the coal industry.  
For the period 2014-2018 the growth rate of investments in fixed assets in the coal mining and processing industry ... Thus, the average annual increase in investments in fixed assets in the coal industry in ... is ...%, in Russia as a whole ...%.
The industry of coal mining and enrichment is more than … Thus, the profitability of expenses is …%, the profitability of expenses for all …%. Profitability of sales in the mining industry …%. 

1.4. Dynamics of market volume 2016-2018 Potential market capacity
The actual size of the coking coal market
The volume of the coking coal market in India in 2018 amounted to … tons, … by …% relative to 2017, by …% relative to 2016.
The share of exports in the production of coking coal in 2018 amounted to …%. During 2016-2018 share of exports in production … p.p., which indicates ... 
Diagram 8. Export share in coking coal production, 2016-2018, %
 
Potential market capacity
To assess the potential market capacity, consider … for 2010-2018. According to the results of 2018, intra-Indian deliveries are … t, which is by … t, or by …% … the level of 2017. By the main directions, intra-Indian supplies can be distributed as follows: …
As shown in the table, in 2014-2017. there was … consumption of coal in India by Indian consumers, but at the end of 2018, the domestic volume of coal consumption again …
Having analyzed the nine-year dynamics of Indian coal consumption by Indian companies, it can be stated that domestic demand …, annual fluctuations do not exceed …%, therefore, in a five-year perspective …
The development of the Indian coal market also stimulates the development of …
Summarizing the above, GidMarket analysts estimate the potential capacity of the domestic coking coal market at …% of the existing one, or … tons. Prerequisites for a significant reduction in the actual market volume in the five-year perspective …
The prospects of the Indian coal market are also confirmed by …
Also scheduled to start...

1.5. Market structure by grades of coking coal: KO (Kokovy lean), KS (Kokovy low-caking) and OS (lean caking)
The market structure by grades of coking coal is determined on the basis of data, relative to the proportion of … KSN” …%, for the KO segment …
For grade G coal, which ...
Diagram 9. Market structure of coking coal by grades 
 

1.6. Description of pricing mechanisms in the market
The pricing of individual enterprises for the sale of coal products includes ... Considering the fact that an enterprise in various associations has ...
Coal prices fluctuate depending on its...
Formation of prices for coal products provides for:
- development ...;
- definition …;
- price analysis ...;
- ...
Prices for coal concentrate take into account …
In world practice, pricing in the coal market has mainly …
According to official statistics, in India, the cost of mining 1 ton of coal (all grades in general) for January-November 2018 amounted to … Rs. For the year she … Rs. At the same time, the production cost of mining 1 ton of coal increased by …
Thus, at present, the largest share in the cost structure of coal falls on … (…%). Over the past three years, the share of...
According to …, the average producer prices for coking coal in 2016 amounted to … Rs./t, in 2017 …
World prices. Coal is a very non-standard commodity, and its prices are significantly …
At the end of 2018, following the world prices, both domestic and export prices for hard coking coal concentrate …
Table 7. Price dynamics for coking coal concentrate in India, 2016-2018
 

Part 2. Overview of the general situation in the coking coal markets in the World
Over the past 20 years, the global coal market ... In 2017, the volume of global coal trade reached … million tons of thermal (fuel) coal and … tons of metallurgical (coking) coal. India's share in world coal supplies …% in 2000 to …% in 2017. India is….
The coking coal market has its own ... At the end of 2017, India …
Australian coal is …% represented by coking coal, which makes it …
Characteristic trends in global demand are that ...
According to the analysis of world prices for coking coal presented by …
On average for 2018, the price of coking coal supplied from …
In 2018, the following factors had the greatest impact on the level of world prices for coking coal:
- At the beginning of 2018…
- The second and third quarters of 2018 showed ... 
- Cause of a new cycle...
- Additional incentive...
Diagram 11. Quotes of coking coal (delivery terms - FOB Australia), $/t
 
Thus, the demand for coking coal in China is currently ..
At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the development ...

Part 3. Forecast for the development of the coking coal market by grade (CO, CC, OS) until 2024 in India 
...

Part 4. Recommendations and conclusions
...

Diagrams

Diagram 1. Dynamics of India's GDP, 2014-2018, % to the previous year
Diagram 2. Industrial production index of India, 2014 - 2018, in % of the previous year
Diagram 3. India Steel Production Index, 2014 - 2018, in % of the previous year
Diagram 4. The dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, Jan. 2014 - Apr. 2019, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 5. Population change in India, 2010-2019
Diagram 6. Dynamics of coking coal production in India, 2014-2018, million tons
Diagram 7. Structure of coking coal production by union territories, 2014-2018
Diagram 8. Export share in coking coal production, 2016-2018, %
Diagram 9. Coking coal market structure by grades
Diagram 10. Top coking coal exporting countries in the world, 2017
Diagram 11. Coking coal quotes (delivery terms - FOB Australia), $/t
Diagram 12. Forecast of key indicators of the coking coal market in India, 2019-2024

Tables 

Table 1. Coal grades that can be used in coking
Table 2. STEP analysis of factors affecting the coking coal market
Table 3. Investments in fixed assets in the coal mining and processing industry in India as a whole and in the Kemerovo region. in particular, 2014-2018, billion Rs.
Table 4. Dynamics of the coking coal market volume, 2016-2018
Table 5. Supply of Indian coal (all grades) to Indian consumers, 2010-2018, mt
Table 6. The structure of the cost of production of 1 ton of coal (all grades) in January-November 2016-2018, %
Table 7. Price dynamics for coking coal concentrate in India, 2016-2018
Table 8. China share in world steel production, 2017-2018
Table 9. Forecast of steel and iron production in India, 2019-2023, mln t
Table 10. Forecast for the development of the coking coal market by grade until 2024 in India