Analysis of the cigarette market in India
The relevance of research
Despite the decline in consumption in the cigarette market, the market in question continues to be one of the most capacious consumer markets. Even if the existing and forecasted trends of market volume reduction persist, the segment of loyal regular customers will maintain a certain level of demand, including in the long term.
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the state of the cigarette market, assessment of the market size, analysis of competitors, as well as identification of factors affecting the cigarette market
Content
Part 1. Overview of the Indian Cigarette Market
1.1. Main characteristics of the market
1.2. Dynamics of the volume of the cigarette market in 2014-2018 Potential market capacity
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
1.4. Stage of the life cycle of the cigarette market
1.5. Competition from substitute products
Part 2. Competitive analysis in the cigarette market
2.1. Major players in the market
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
2.3. Profiles of major players
Part 3. Analysis of cigarette production
3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of cigarettes
3.2. Share of exports in cigarette production
3.3. Segmentation of cigarette production by region
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
3.3.2. Production by states of India
Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of cigarettes
4.1. Volume and dynamics of cigarette imports
4.2. Import structure
4.3. Volume and dynamics of cigarette exports
4.4. Export structure
Part 5. Analysis of cigarette consumption
5.1. Dynamics of cigarette consumption
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase
Part 6. Price Analysis
6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India
Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market
Part 8. Forecast for the development of the cigarette market until 2023
Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions
Research excerpt
Part 1. Overview of the Indian Cigarette Market
1.1. Main characteristics of the market
The object of this study is the cigarette market. A cigarette is a paper tube with shredded tobacco inside. Most manufactured cigarettes are 84 mm long and 0,3 inches (7,62 mm) in diameter (King Size standard).
A pack of cigarettes is a thick paper package, usually containing 20 cigarettes. There are special packs of cigarettes containing 10-25 and other quantities, but this is the exception rather than the rule.
...
As a rule, Indian manufacturers of cigarettes line up their product lines, incl. by ""strength"" (nicotine and tar content per cigarette).
- Strong...
- ...
- ...
Global statistics show that the share of smokers in the world ... The indicated trend ... towards the Indian cigarette market, as ...
Despite the trend .., cigarettes continue to account for ... a share in the structure of consumer spending of the population. For example, the share of filter cigarettes in the structure of consumer spending in 2018 amounted to …%, which ...
Diagram 1. The share of filtered cigarettes in the structure of consumer spending of the population, 2014-2018, %
Over the entire period of the study (2014-2018), the share of imported products in the Indian cigarette market is …%. Despite the fact that … has been observed since 2016, and the share of imported products is …% in 2014-2015. to …% in 2016-2018, to the overall cigarette market in India ...
...
To the main trends of the cigarette market in India in the period 2014-2018. relate: …
1.2. Dynamics of the volume of the cigarette market in 2014-2018 Potential market capacity
Consider the dynamics of the volume of the cigarette market for the period 2014-2018. According to GidMarket’s estimate based on …, the volume of the cigarette market in India in 2018 is about … pieces, of which …% is accounted for by …
Regarding 2014, the cigarette market in India … According to GidMarket, ... It is likely that cigarette manufacturers … According to …, already in 2017, the practice of producing cigarettes ... Since 2017, if tobacco companies ...
Despite ... in the period 2014-2018. volume of cigarette market in India …% per year.
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the volume of the cigarette market 2014 - 2018 (preliminary)
...
To the Indian buyer, who is still…, very sensitive to… and therefore…
As the actual data on cigarette sales in India shows …, the potential capacity of the cigarette market is … pcs. per year, but the achievement ...
In the structure of proceeds from the sale of cigarette manufacturers in the Union Territories, … Union Territories leads with a significant advantage, occupying …% based on the results of 11 months. 2018, while the share of … Union territories over the past five years … as a result of the process … Share in total revenue of … and … federal districts, …
...
1.3. Assessment of factors affecting the market
Let's consider the main factors influencing the market and, accordingly, demand.
Economic
...
The cigarette market is less influenced by … compared to many other consumer market groups. First of all, this is due...
However, ... determines .... Under the conditions of … real incomes of the population in India, the consumer …
...
And according to the preliminary estimates of Rosstat, the level of real incomes of the population …% ….
Thus, over the past 12 months, the US dollar exchange rate …%. Relative to January 2014, the US dollar exchange rate against the rupee …
...
Over the past four years, the dynamics of real incomes of the population …, so in 2014 real incomes …% compared to 2013, in 2015 - by …% compared to 2014, ...
...
According to …the tax rate on cigarettes from July 1, 2018 until the end of the year was … Rs. per 1000 pieces, from January 1, 2019 it is ... Rs., and from January 1, 2020 it will be ... Rs. According to ..., in 2021 excise rates are expected to be ... Thus, ...
Demographic
...
technological
...
Political
...
Table 2. STEP analysis of factors influencing the cigarette market
Macro-environmental factors are currently influencing the development of the cigarette market in India…influence. First of all, this is due to ... Political factors that have ... The second and third most negative influence on the development of the market have ... Among the demographics, it should be noted ... Among the economic ones - ... Summing up, the cigarette market in India operates in conditions …
1.4. Stage of the life cycle of the cigarette market
The cigarette market is at the stage of ... the life cycle. At the same time, the quality of the product ... Demand is formed ...
...
Cigarettes as a product group already ... The number of buyers who have purchased this product ...
Most potential buyers … In this case, sales growth is only possible …
At this stage, the role of ...
Usually at the stage...
1.5. Competition from substitute products
The main substitute products for cigarettes are ... For the most part, they are based on the fact that ... Accordingly, without ... Devices ... are a modification of a traditional product, ...
...
Currently, an additional incentive for the development of the … segment is … Despite the fact that the situation may change in the future, and …
From the largest tobacco companies - ...
...
An important feature of the segment under consideration is ... Manufacturers are trying to compensate for ...
...
To sum up, the market for traditional cigarettes is being influenced by …
Another cigarette replacement product that prevents ...
Part 2. Competitive analysis in the cigarette market
2.1. Major players in the market
In terms of competition, the Indian cigarette market is …: the Herfindahl-Hirschman coefficient is … To a certain extent, the current situation in the competitive environment of the Indian tobacco market is determined by the presence of …
...
2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
The position of market participants was assessed by GidMarket in … based on data from …, data from …
According to the results of the assessment, the leader of the cigarette market in India in 2018 is … …% of the Indian cigarette market in physical terms, in second place… Thus, the top three accounts for …% of the Indian cigarette market.
In the last year, the share of India's largest cigarette market operators …
Diagram 11. Shares of the largest competitors in the cigarette market in 2018
2.3. Profiles of major players
Company ""…""
… is the leader of the tobacco market in India and the largest … The company's portfolio includes …
… has been operating in India since …, … has … offices and subsidiaries in India. Headquartered in ... In 2018 ...
In India, there are ... factories of the company ...
Net profit … in the world as a whole in the first half of 2018 …% to $... bn, …
Company ""…""
...
Part 3. Analysis of cigarette production
3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of cigarettes
For the period 2014-2018 the volume of cigarette production in India is … pieces, or by …%. According to the results …
Thus, it is expected that by the end of 2018, the volume of cigarette production in India will be … pieces.
...
In the production of cigarettes, processes are clearly traced ...
Another major tobacco manufacturer...
Despite trends …, the production of tobacco products remains …: the cost-effectiveness of tobacco production is …%, which is almost …
...
For 2014-2018 revenue of TOP 5 cigarette companies in India … by … Rs. and in 2018, according to the forecast estimate, is … Rs. …
3.2. Share of exports in cigarette production
The share of exports in the volume of cigarette production in India …: in 2014-2015. the share of exports in the volume of production was …%, since 2016 …%, which is due to ...
...
3.3. Segmentation of cigarette production by region
3.3.1. Production by Union Territories
At present, more than ... of the total Indian cigarette production is concentrated in ... the federal district, despite the fact that back in 2014 ... This is due to ...
3.3.2. Production by states of India
In the structure of cigarette production by state in India, … and … are in the lead. These two states account for more than …, namely …% of cigarette production in physical terms … Thus, in 2017, five states accounted for more than …% of total Indian cigarette production.
...
Part 4. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of cigarettes
4.1. Volume and dynamics of cigarette imports
For the period 2014-2018 the volume of imports of cigarettes to India …%, however, the volume of imports ... For 11 months. In 2018, the volume of cigarette imports to India amounted to … pcs. …
Chart 16. Volume and dynamics of cigarette imports in physical terms
… the volume of cigarette imports to India in ruble terms for the period 2014-2018. … occurred both due to an increase in … and due to … It is estimated that the import of cigarettes to India in 2018 in monetary terms is … Rs.
...
In concluding the analysis of cigarette imports in India, it must be emphasized once again that..
4.2. Import structure
In 2018, the main importing countries of cigarettes to India are … (…% in the total structure of cigarette imports), … (…%), …, the share of other countries is …% in the total volume of cigarette imports to India in 2018.
Since 2015, in the structure of cigarette imports to India, there has been a significant ...
4.3. Volume and dynamics of cigarette exports
In physical terms, the export of cigarettes from India … against the background of ... So, for the period 2014-2018. annual export volume … pcs. For 11 months In 2018, … cigarettes were exported.
...
In value terms, the dynamics of exports showed … in 2015 (…%) against the background of ... Next, the strength of the influence of the factor of reduction in exports in physical terms … However, the assessment of the volume of exports of cigarettes from India ...
...
By category of cigarette in India in the period 2014-2018. foreign trade balance of …, at the end of 2018 is … pcs. cigarettes. At the same time, in the period 2014-2018. ... However, in the medium term ...
4.4. Export structure
In the structure of cigarette exports from India by country, about … volume falls on countries ... Thus, …% of cigarette exports from India in 2018 accounted for …, …
Also …% in the structure of cigarette exports is occupied by …
...
Part 5. Analysis of cigarette consumption
5.1. Dynamics of cigarette consumption
Despite …, the volume of consumption of cigarettes in value terms … For the period 2014-2018. the average annual growth rate of … is …%. It's connected with …
According to GidMarket, the volume of cigarette consumption in value terms in 2018 is … Rs.
...
As noted earlier, the percentage of smokers in India ... According to ..., the main factors ... is ..., the second factor is .. By economic problems, respondents often mean that ... In third place ... At the same time, legislative restrictions ...
As before, among the consumers of cigarettes ... So, according to the Ministry of Health of India, among ...
5.2. Analysis of the results of tenders for the purchase
The purchase of cigarettes through tenders is carried out ... In the last 6 months, ... Among the tenders with the declared initial contract amount ...
The announced tenders are dominated by…
For the period from 01.07.2018/31.12.2018/ to / / . the total amount of announced tenders amounted to … mln Rs. …% of the total initial cost falls on …, …% – …, other regions – …
...
Table 11. Data on tenders for the purchase of cigarettes in the 2nd half. 2018
Part 6. Price Analysis
6.1. Average producer prices by union territories
For the period 2014-2018 average prices of manufacturers of cigarettes for sale in the domestic market as a whole for India …%, the main …, which was caused by …
On average, in India, the average price of cigarette manufacturers for sale in the domestic market in 2018 is …Rs./thous. PCS. Highest price in … … Rs./ths. PCS, ...
...
6.2. Average consumer prices by states in India
For the period 2014-2018 price increase for domestic filter cigarettes …%. Over the past 11 months, the consumer price for cigarettes …%. Traditionally, the highest consumer prices for domestically filtered cigarettes are in the states ...
The lowest consumer prices for domestic filtered cigarettes ...
The consumer price of cigarettes is higher than the average prices of cigarette manufacturers in … Such a significant difference … is a consequence of …
Table 13. Domestic average consumer prices for filter cigarettes by states of India, Rs. for 1 pack 20 pcs.
The growth of consumer prices for cigarettes with a filter of foreign brands ... So, for 2014-2018. average consumer prices in India for filter cigarettes of foreign brands …%, while …
Part 7. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the market
...
… factors of the investment climate of the cigarette market dominate over … A comprehensive assessment of investment attractiveness factors is … points – … investment climate.
The most significant negative factors: ...
At the same time, there are significant positive factors in the cigarette market that ...
Part 8. Forecast for the development of the cigarette market until 2023
We will analyze the market based on methods based on ...
The cigarette market size forecast is based on the forecast of the impact ...
Thus, GidMarket predicts that the volume of the cigarette market in 2023 will be …
...
Thus, it is expected that in value terms…
Despite …
Part 9. Recommendations and conclusions
Despite…, cigarettes continue…
Over the entire study period (2014-2018), the share of imported products in the Indian cigarette market …
The main trends in the cigarette market in India include: ...
...
Macro-environmental factors are currently exerting…
In terms of competition, India's cigarette market is...
GidMarket analysts predict ...
One of the most important ways to draw attention to tobacco products is to…
Existing operators of India's cigarette market can be recommended ...
Due to the high level...
Diagrams
Diagram 1. Share of filter cigarettes in the structure of household consumer spending, 2014-2018, %
Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products in the cigarette market, %
Diagram 3. Dynamics of the volume of the cigarette market 2014 - 2018 (preliminary).
Diagram 4. Revenue (net) from the sale of cigarettes in the union territories for 2014 - 2018, %
Diagram 5. Dynamics of the US dollar against the rupee, 2014 - 2018, Rs. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 6. Dynamics of real income of the population of India, 2012 - 2018 (preview)
Diagram 7. Share of smokers in India, 2013-2018 (forecast), % of adult population
Diagram 8. Population change in India, 2010-2019
Diagram 9. Internet and mobile Internet penetration in India among the audience of 16 years and older, 2014-2018, %
Figure 10. Stage of the life cycle of the cigarette market
Diagram 11. Shares of the largest competitors in the cigarette market in 2018
Diagram 12. Dynamics of cigarette production volumes in India for 2014 - 2018
Diagram 13. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest manufacturers (TOP-5) of cigarettes in India, 2014-2018 (forecast)
Diagram 14. The share of exports in production for 2014 - 2018
Diagram 15. Structure of cigarette production by states of India, 2017, %
Diagram 16. Volume and dynamics of cigarette imports in kind
Diagram 17. The volume and dynamics of imports of cigarettes in monetary terms, million Rs.
Diagram 18. Dynamics of export of cigarettes in physical terms
Diagram 19. Dynamics of export of cigarettes in monetary terms, million Rs.
Diagram 20. Balance of exports and imports
Diagram 21. Structure of exports by country in 2018
Diagram 22. Dynamics of cigarette consumption in monetary terms 2014 - 2018
Diagram 23. Forecast of the volume of the cigarette market in 2019 - 2023, billion pieces
Diagram 24. Forecast of the volume of the cigarette market in consumer prices, 2019 - 2023, trillion Rs.
Tables
Table 1. Migration growth in India, 2012-2018 (forecast), thousand people
Table 2. STEP analysis of factors affecting the cigarette market
Table 3. The main companies participating in the cigarette market in 2018
Table 4. Profiles of companies participating in the cigarette market in 2018
Table 5. Profitability indicators of the production of tobacco products in comparison with all branches of OKVED of India, 2014-9 months. 2018, %
Table 6. Dynamics of cigarette production in India by union territories
Table 7. Dynamics of imports in monetary terms, USD
Table 8. Structure of cigarette imports by importing countries in 2015-2018
Table 9. Dynamics of exports in monetary terms, USD
Table 10. The structure of the initial cost of the contract by region of the companies that placed the tender, %
Table 11. Data on tenders for the purchase of cigarettes in the 2nd half. 2018
Table 12. Average producer prices for cigarettes in the Union Territories, domestic market, Rs./thous. PCS.
Table 13. Average consumer prices for domestic filter cigarettes by states of India, Rs. for 1 pack 20 pcs.
Table 14. Average consumer prices for foreign branded filter cigarettes by state in India, Rs. for 1 pack 20 pcs.
Table 15. Assessment of factors of investment attractiveness of the cigarette market
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